Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
MAE: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.34 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±4.0658 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
MAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.92 | -0.85 | -2.99 | -2.17 – -1.67 |
| 2029 | -2.36 | -0.51 | -4.21 | -2.85 – -1.87 |
| 2031 | -2.8 | -0.41 | -5.18 | -3.51 – -2.08 |
| 2036 | -3.89 | -0.51 | -7.27 | -5.2 – -2.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 57.3T | 60.3T | 54.6T | 55.5T – 59T |
| 2029 | 62.1T | 67.4T | 57.6T | 57.5T – 66.7T |
| 2031 | 67T | 73.8T | 61.2T | 59.4T – 74.7T |
| 2036 | 79.3T | 88.8T | 71T | 62.8T – 95.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.34 | 3.9 | -0.88 | 0.89 – 1.79 |
| 2029 | 0.72 | 5.15 | -3.13 | -0.07 – 1.5 |
| 2031 | 0.09 | 5.81 | -4.87 | -0.95 – 1.12 |
| 2036 | -1.48 | 6.62 | -8.49 | -3.06 – 0.11 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.2k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 72.4k | 76.4k | 69k | 70.2k – 74.7k |
| 2029 | 78.2k | 85k | 72.3k | 72.4k – 84k |
| 2031 | 84k | 92.8k | 76.3k | 74.4k – 93.5k |
| 2036 | 98.4k | 110.9k | 87.6k | 78k – 118.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 124.55 | 138.69 | 108.24 | 120.38 – 128.72 |
| 2029 | 126.26 | 150.75 | 98 | 116.43 – 136.08 |
| 2031 | 127.96 | 159.58 | 91.48 | 112.86 – 143.06 |
| 2036 | 132.22 | 176.94 | 80.63 | 104.19 – 160.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.14 | 7.85 | -1.9 | 2.05 – 4.24 |
| 2029 | 3.7 | 11.86 | -5 | 1.72 – 5.69 |
| 2031 | 4.26 | 14.8 | -5 | 1.59 – 6.94 |
| 2036 | 5.66 | 20.56 | -5 | 1.45 – 9.87 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed788.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 787.4m | 824.6m | 752.8m | 763m – 811.8m |
| 2029 | 788.3m | 825.6m | 753.7m | 730m – 846.6m |
| 2031 | 789.3m | 826.6m | 754.7m | 699.7m – 878.9m |
| 2036 | 791.7m | 829.1m | 756.9m | 627.5m – 955.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.55 | 5.53 | 3.58 | 4.33 – 4.78 |
| 2029 | 4.46 | 6.15 | 2.78 | 3.99 – 4.93 |
| 2031 | 4.37 | 6.54 | 2.2 | 3.69 – 5.05 |
| 2036 | 4.14 | 7.21 | 1.07 | 3.01 – 5.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MAE · API docs
