Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
MAE: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in slowdown; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.84 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.1431 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
MAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.87 | -0.84 | -2.9 | -2.11 – -1.63 |
| 2028 | -2.41 | -0.63 | -4.19 | -2.89 – -1.93 |
| 2030 | -2.95 | -0.65 | -5.25 | -3.66 – -2.25 |
| 2035 | -4.3 | -1.05 | -7.56 | -5.65 – -2.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.5T | 57.6T | 51.8T | 52.8T – 56.2T |
| 2028 | 59.1T | 64.5T | 54.5T | 54.8T – 63.5T |
| 2030 | 63.7T | 70.7T | 57.7T | 56.5T – 71T |
| 2035 | 75.3T | 85.1T | 66.7T | 59.6T – 90.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.84 | 11.64 | -6.65 | 0.18 – 3.51 |
| 2028 | 2.14 | 12 | -10 | -0.8 – 5.07 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 12 | -10 | -1.42 – 6.27 |
| 2035 | 3.16 | 12 | -10 | -2.51 – 8.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69k | 73k | 65.5k | 66.8k – 71.1k |
| 2028 | 74.3k | 81.3k | 68.2k | 68.8k – 79.8k |
| 2030 | 79.6k | 88.6k | 71.7k | 70.5k – 88.6k |
| 2035 | 92.8k | 105.6k | 81.7k | 73.6k – 112.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 124.19 | 138.44 | 107.74 | 120.01 – 128.37 |
| 2028 | 126.36 | 151.04 | 97.87 | 116.49 – 136.22 |
| 2030 | 128.53 | 160.4 | 91.76 | 113.34 – 143.71 |
| 2035 | 133.95 | 179.02 | 81.95 | 105.59 – 162.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63 | 7.81 | -2.91 | 1.44 – 3.82 |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 11.31 | -5 | 0.25 – 4.45 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 13.64 | -5 | -0.66 – 4.8 |
| 2035 | 1.37 | 17.73 | -5 | -2.47 – 5.22 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed788m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 786.1m | 823.3m | 751.7m | 761.8m – 810.5m |
| 2028 | 788.5m | 825.8m | 753.9m | 730.2m – 846.9m |
| 2030 | 790.9m | 828.3m | 756.2m | 701.1m – 880.7m |
| 2035 | 796.9m | 834.5m | 761.9m | 631.6m – 962.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.14 | 5.43 | 2.84 | 3.87 – 4.4 |
| 2028 | 3.41 | 5.65 | 1.17 | 2.9 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 2.69 | 5.58 | 0 | 2.03 – 3.34 |
| 2035 | 0.87 | 4.96 | 0 | 0.09 – 1.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MAE · API docs
