Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
St. Martin (French part): macro conditions look supportive (pressure 5/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 4 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.02 for 2022.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.90, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2022: supportive (projected sentiment +0.76) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±14.9 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
St. Martin (French part): forward projections across 4 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2031, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed649.2m(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 646.1m | 762.7m | 545.1m | 621.9m – 670.4m |
| 2024 | 632.4m | 834.3m | 457.5m | 578m – 686.8m |
| 2026 | 618.7m | 879.3m | 392.8m | 538.2m – 699.2m |
| 2031 | 584.4m | 953m | 265m | 447m – 721.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.02 | 12 | -10 | -1.1 – 9.13 |
| 2024 | 3.03 | 12 | -10 | -5.87 – 11.94 |
| 2026 | 2.05 | 12 | -10 | -9.41 – 12 |
| 2031 | -0.4 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.7k(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22.4k | 26.1k | 19.1k | 21.6k – 23.2k |
| 2024 | 23.9k | 30.3k | 18.3k | 22k – 25.8k |
| 2026 | 25.4k | 33.7k | 18.2k | 22.4k – 28.4k |
| 2031 | 29.2k | 40.9k | 19k | 23.1k – 35.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.3k | 26.5k | 24.2k | 24.5k – 26.1k |
| 2028 | 24k | 25.9k | 22.3k | 22.2k – 25.8k |
| 2030 | 22.7k | 25.2k | 20.4k | 20.1k – 25.3k |
| 2035 | 19.5k | 22.9k | 16.2k | 15.4k – 23.5k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MAF · API docs
