Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Monaco: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 5/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 4 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.13 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.90, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: supportive (projected sentiment +0.90) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+14% skill vs naive; realized ±11.1917 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Monaco: forward projections across 4 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed11.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.7bn | 13.4bn | 10.3bn | 11.3bn – 12.1bn |
| 2027 | 13.3bn | 16.1bn | 10.8bn | 12.3bn – 14.3bn |
| 2029 | 14.8bn | 18.5bn | 11.7bn | 13.1bn – 16.5bn |
| 2034 | 18.7bn | 23.9bn | 14.3bn | 14.8bn – 22.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.51(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.13 | 12 | -10 | 1.29 – 12 |
| 2027 | 7.55 | 12 | -10 | -4.43 – 12 |
| 2029 | 6.97 | 12 | -10 | -8.58 – 12 |
| 2034 | 5.52 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed288k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 250k | 250k | 213.7k | 241k – 250k |
| 2027 | 250k | 250k | 187.1k | 229.4k – 250k |
| 2029 | 250k | 250k | 168.8k | 218.9k – 250k |
| 2034 | 250k | 250k | 135.2k | 194.2k – 250k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.3k | 40.2k | 36.7k | 37.2k – 39.5k |
| 2028 | 38k | 39.8k | 36.4k | 35.2k – 40.8k |
| 2030 | 37.7k | 39.5k | 36.1k | 33.4k – 42k |
| 2035 | 36.9k | 38.7k | 35.2k | 29.3k – 44.6k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MCO · API docs
