Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Moldova: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.01 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+3% skill vs naive; realized ±7.8089 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Moldova: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-21.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -23.7 | -16.12 | -30 | -25.62 – -21.77 |
| 2029 | -27.29 | -14.17 | -30 | -30 – -23.3 |
| 2031 | -30 | -13.07 | -30 | -30 – -24.14 |
| 2036 | -30 | -6.05 | -30 | -30 – -20.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.25 | 42.9 | 23.01 | 30.21 – 34.28 |
| 2028 | 33.23 | 51.69 | 17.24 | 29 – 37.46 |
| 2030 | 34.22 | 58.04 | 13.57 | 28.08 – 40.36 |
| 2035 | 36.69 | 70.38 | 7.49 | 26 – 47.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.2bn | 24.9bn | 21.7bn | 22.5bn – 23.9bn |
| 2029 | 26.6bn | 29.6bn | 24bn | 24.6bn – 28.6bn |
| 2031 | 30bn | 33.8bn | 26.6bn | 26.6bn – 33.4bn |
| 2036 | 38.4bn | 43.8bn | 33.7bn | 30.4bn – 46.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.01 | 12 | -10 | -0.98 – 4.99 |
| 2029 | 2.15 | 12 | -10 | -3.07 – 7.37 |
| 2031 | 2.3 | 12 | -10 | -4.49 – 9.08 |
| 2036 | 2.66 | 12 | -10 | -7.11 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10k | 10.7k | 9.4k | 9.7k – 10.3k |
| 2029 | 11.6k | 12.9k | 10.5k | 10.8k – 12.5k |
| 2031 | 13.3k | 15k | 11.9k | 11.8k – 14.8k |
| 2036 | 17.4k | 19.8k | 15.4k | 13.8k – 21k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 40.02 | 46.55 | 32.5 | 38.38 – 41.67 |
| 2029 | 41.47 | 52.77 | 28.44 | 37.74 – 45.2 |
| 2031 | 42.92 | 57.51 | 26.09 | 37.24 – 48.6 |
| 2036 | 46.54 | 67.17 | 22.74 | 35.92 – 57.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.74 | 76.48 | 47 | 58.49 – 64.98 |
| 2028 | 63.39 | 88.91 | 37.86 | 56.44 – 70.34 |
| 2030 | 65.03 | 97.99 | 32.08 | 54.79 – 75.28 |
| 2035 | 69.16 | 115.76 | 22.55 | 50.96 – 87.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.88 | 32.82 | -5 | -0.18 – 11.95 |
| 2029 | 3.98 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 14.51 |
| 2031 | 2.08 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 15.6 |
| 2036 | -2.68 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 16.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.89 | 25.2 | 19.02 | 21.07 – 22.71 |
| 2028 | 21.53 | 27.27 | 16.56 | 19.68 – 23.39 |
| 2030 | 21.18 | 28.58 | 14.76 | 18.42 – 23.93 |
| 2035 | 20.29 | 30.76 | 11.21 | 15.54 – 25.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.3m – 2.4m |
| 2029 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2.2m – 2.5m |
| 2031 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2m – 2.6m |
| 2036 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 1.8m – 2.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 15 | -10 | 1.29 – 7.75 |
| 2028 | 6.21 | 15 | -10 | 0.44 – 11.98 |
| 2030 | 7.9 | 15 | -10 | 0.2 – 15 |
| 2035 | 12.11 | 15 | -10 | 0.19 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.7bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.1bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.48 | 7.45 | 3.5 | 5.09 – 5.87 |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 9 | 2.14 | 4.78 – 6.36 |
| 2030 | 5.62 | 10.04 | 1.19 | 4.49 – 6.74 |
| 2035 | 5.65 | 11.91 | 0 | 3.79 – 7.52 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.8bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.28 | 6.02 | 2.54 | 3.94 – 4.61 |
| 2029 | 5.23 | 8.24 | 2.22 | 4.52 – 5.94 |
| 2031 | 6.18 | 10.07 | 2.29 | 5.09 – 7.27 |
| 2036 | 8.56 | 14.06 | 3.06 | 6.35 – 10.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MDA · API docs
