Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Moldova: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.9 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+3% skill vs naive; realized ±1.0049 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Moldova: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-21.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -20.39 | -12.58 | -28.2 | -22.31 – -18.47 |
| 2028 | -22.98 | -9.45 | -30 | -26.84 – -19.11 |
| 2030 | -25.56 | -8.1 | -30 | -30 – -19.95 |
| 2035 | -30 | -5.31 | -30 | -30 – -20.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.25 | 42.9 | 23.01 | 30.21 – 34.28 |
| 2028 | 33.23 | 51.69 | 17.24 | 29 – 37.46 |
| 2030 | 34.22 | 58.04 | 13.57 | 28.08 – 40.36 |
| 2035 | 36.69 | 70.38 | 7.49 | 26 – 47.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.7bn | 23.5bn | 20.1bn | 21bn – 22.4bn |
| 2028 | 25bn | 28.2bn | 22.3bn | 23.2bn – 26.9bn |
| 2030 | 28.4bn | 32.5bn | 24.8bn | 25.2bn – 31.6bn |
| 2035 | 36.8bn | 42.6bn | 31.7bn | 29.1bn – 44.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9 | 12 | -10 | -1.72 – 7.53 |
| 2028 | 4.06 | 12 | -10 | -4.06 – 12 |
| 2030 | 5.22 | 12 | -10 | -5.43 – 12 |
| 2035 | 8.12 | 12 | -10 | -7.65 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3k | 10.1k | 8.6k | 9k – 9.6k |
| 2028 | 10.9k | 12.3k | 9.7k | 10.1k – 11.7k |
| 2030 | 12.5k | 14.4k | 11k | 11.1k – 14k |
| 2035 | 16.7k | 19.2k | 14.4k | 13.2k – 20.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.78 | 43.77 | 28.73 | 35.12 – 38.45 |
| 2028 | 37.15 | 49.25 | 23.2 | 33.51 – 40.8 |
| 2030 | 37.52 | 53.14 | 19.51 | 32.12 – 42.93 |
| 2035 | 38.45 | 60.53 | 12.97 | 28.9 – 48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.74 | 76.48 | 47 | 58.49 – 64.98 |
| 2028 | 63.39 | 88.91 | 37.86 | 56.44 – 70.34 |
| 2030 | 65.03 | 97.99 | 32.08 | 54.79 – 75.28 |
| 2035 | 69.16 | 115.76 | 22.55 | 50.96 – 87.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 36.89 | -5 | 3.88 – 16.12 |
| 2028 | 14.31 | 50 | -5 | 3.3 – 25.32 |
| 2030 | 18.62 | 50 | -5 | 3.8 – 33.45 |
| 2035 | 29.41 | 50 | -5 | 5.85 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.89 | 25.2 | 19.02 | 21.07 – 22.71 |
| 2028 | 21.53 | 27.27 | 16.56 | 19.68 – 23.39 |
| 2030 | 21.18 | 28.58 | 14.76 | 18.42 – 23.93 |
| 2035 | 20.29 | 30.76 | 11.21 | 15.54 – 25.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.3m – 2.5m |
| 2028 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2.2m – 2.5m |
| 2030 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2m – 2.5m |
| 2035 | 2.2m | 2.3m | 2.1m | 1.7m – 2.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 15 | -10 | 1.29 – 7.75 |
| 2028 | 6.21 | 15 | -10 | 0.44 – 11.98 |
| 2030 | 7.9 | 15 | -10 | 0.2 – 15 |
| 2035 | 12.11 | 15 | -10 | 0.19 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.7bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.1bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.48 | 7.45 | 3.5 | 5.09 – 5.87 |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 9 | 2.14 | 4.78 – 6.36 |
| 2030 | 5.62 | 10.04 | 1.19 | 4.49 – 6.74 |
| 2035 | 5.65 | 11.91 | 0 | 3.79 – 7.52 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.8bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.62 | 2.32 | 0.93 | 1.49 – 1.75 |
| 2028 | 1.85 | 3.06 | 0.65 | 1.58 – 2.13 |
| 2030 | 2.08 | 3.64 | 0.53 | 1.68 – 2.49 |
| 2035 | 2.66 | 4.86 | 0.47 | 1.9 – 3.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MDA · API docs
