Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Madagascar: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.31 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±3.2502 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Madagascar: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -8.5 | -5.7 | -11.29 | -9.2 – -7.79 |
| 2029 | -9.49 | -4.65 | -14.33 | -10.93 – -8.05 |
| 2031 | -10.48 | -4.24 | -16.73 | -12.6 – -8.37 |
| 2036 | -12.96 | -4.13 | -21.79 | -16.84 – -9.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.54 | 30.46 | 11.95 | 18.8 – 22.29 |
| 2028 | 18.96 | 36.14 | 4.08 | 15.6 – 22.33 |
| 2030 | 17.38 | 39.55 | 0 | 12.83 – 21.94 |
| 2035 | 13.44 | 44.79 | 0 | 6.81 – 20.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.4bn | 24.3bn | 20.7bn | 21.7bn – 23.1bn |
| 2029 | 25.4bn | 28.8bn | 22.4bn | 23.5bn – 27.2bn |
| 2031 | 28.4bn | 32.7bn | 24.6bn | 25.1bn – 31.6bn |
| 2036 | 35.8bn | 42bn | 30.4bn | 28.4bn – 43.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.31 | 4.69 | 2.11 | 3.02 – 3.59 |
| 2029 | 2.67 | 5.06 | 0.6 | 2.14 – 3.2 |
| 2031 | 2.04 | 5.12 | -0.64 | 1.36 – 2.71 |
| 2036 | 0.45 | 4.82 | -3.33 | -0.44 – 1.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed599.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 685.4 | 753.72 | 626.19 | 664.15 – 706.65 |
| 2029 | 760.73 | 879.05 | 658.18 | 704.45 – 817.01 |
| 2031 | 836.05 | 988.81 | 703.66 | 741.12 – 930.98 |
| 2036 | 1k | 1.2k | 837.13 | 811.87 – 1.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50.29 | 57.97 | 41.44 | 48.31 – 52.28 |
| 2029 | 52.28 | 65.58 | 36.94 | 47.72 – 56.84 |
| 2031 | 54.27 | 71.43 | 34.46 | 47.28 – 61.25 |
| 2036 | 59.23 | 83.51 | 31.22 | 46.02 – 72.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.94 | 41.22 | 24.65 | 31.14 – 34.73 |
| 2028 | 32.99 | 47.34 | 18.64 | 29.21 – 36.77 |
| 2030 | 33.05 | 51.58 | 14.52 | 27.57 – 38.53 |
| 2035 | 33.19 | 59.39 | 6.98 | 23.86 – 42.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.4 | 11.62 | 4.95 | 7.55 – 9.25 |
| 2029 | 8.75 | 14.33 | 2.78 | 7.09 – 10.41 |
| 2031 | 9.1 | 16.3 | 1.39 | 6.78 – 11.42 |
| 2036 | 9.97 | 20.16 | -0.94 | 6.12 – 13.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.88 | 24.51 | 17.74 | 20.03 – 21.74 |
| 2028 | 20.57 | 26.85 | 15.13 | 18.68 – 22.45 |
| 2030 | 20.25 | 28.36 | 13.23 | 17.47 – 23.03 |
| 2035 | 19.46 | 30.93 | 9.53 | 14.71 – 24.21 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32m | 33.5m | 30.6m | 31m – 33m |
| 2029 | 31.5m | 33m | 30.1m | 29.2m – 33.9m |
| 2031 | 31.1m | 32.6m | 29.6m | 27.5m – 34.6m |
| 2036 | 29.9m | 32.1m | 27.9m | 23.7m – 36.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.16 | 12.85 | -9.35 | -1.44 – 1.77 |
| 2028 | 0.54 | 15 | -10 | -2.25 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 0.92 | 15 | -10 | -2.71 – 4.55 |
| 2035 | 1.87 | 15 | -10 | -3.45 – 7.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2027 | 3.3bn | 4bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2029 | 3.6bn | 4.6bn | 2.7bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 5.8bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 5.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.17 | 7.02 | 3.31 | 4.8 – 5.53 |
| 2027 | 4.77 | 7.98 | 1.56 | 4.05 – 5.49 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 8.71 | 0.43 | 3.57 – 5.57 |
| 2034 | 4.41 | 10.27 | 0 | 2.81 – 6.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2027 | 3.3bn | 4bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2029 | 3.6bn | 4.6bn | 2.7bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 5.8bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 5.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 3.3 | 2.63 | 2.86 – 3.06 |
| 2028 | 2.81 | 3.39 | 2.22 | 2.58 – 3.03 |
| 2030 | 2.65 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.32 – 2.98 |
| 2035 | 2.26 | 3.32 | 1.19 | 1.73 – 2.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MDG · API docs
