Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Madagascar: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.12 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4831 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Madagascar: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.48 | -3.42 | -9.53 | -7.2 – -5.75 |
| 2028 | -7.83 | -2.54 | -13.12 | -9.28 – -6.37 |
| 2030 | -9.18 | -2.36 | -16.01 | -11.31 – -7.05 |
| 2035 | -12.56 | -2.91 | -22.21 | -16.54 – -8.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.54 | 30.46 | 11.95 | 18.8 – 22.29 |
| 2028 | 18.96 | 36.14 | 4.08 | 15.6 – 22.33 |
| 2030 | 17.38 | 39.55 | 0 | 12.83 – 21.94 |
| 2035 | 13.44 | 44.79 | 0 | 6.81 – 20.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.6bn | 22.5bn | 18.9bn | 19.9bn – 21.2bn |
| 2028 | 22.9bn | 26.3bn | 20bn | 21.2bn – 24.6bn |
| 2030 | 25.3bn | 29.7bn | 21.5bn | 22.4bn – 28.2bn |
| 2035 | 31.3bn | 37.4bn | 25.9bn | 24.8bn – 37.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.12 | 12 | -5.81 | 1.35 – 4.88 |
| 2028 | 3.44 | 12 | -10 | 0.3 – 6.58 |
| 2030 | 3.76 | 12 | -10 | -0.38 – 7.9 |
| 2035 | 4.56 | 12 | -10 | -1.6 – 10.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed599.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 618.26 | 681.33 | 563.61 | 599.1 – 637.43 |
| 2028 | 667.16 | 776.39 | 572.49 | 617.8 – 716.51 |
| 2030 | 716.05 | 857.07 | 593.83 | 634.75 – 797.35 |
| 2035 | 838.28 | 1k | 665.44 | 664.4 – 1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.98 | 57.69 | 41.09 | 48 – 51.97 |
| 2028 | 52.55 | 65.89 | 37.14 | 47.97 – 57.12 |
| 2030 | 55.11 | 72.34 | 35.23 | 48.05 – 62.17 |
| 2035 | 61.52 | 85.89 | 33.4 | 47.93 – 75.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.94 | 41.22 | 24.65 | 31.14 – 34.73 |
| 2028 | 32.99 | 47.34 | 18.64 | 29.21 – 36.77 |
| 2030 | 33.05 | 51.58 | 14.52 | 27.57 – 38.53 |
| 2035 | 33.19 | 59.39 | 6.98 | 23.86 – 42.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.36 | 11.68 | 4.8 | 7.49 – 9.23 |
| 2028 | 8.97 | 14.72 | 2.81 | 7.27 – 10.68 |
| 2030 | 9.58 | 17.01 | 1.63 | 7.17 – 12 |
| 2035 | 11.11 | 21.62 | -0.14 | 7.01 – 15.22 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.88 | 24.51 | 17.74 | 20.03 – 21.74 |
| 2028 | 20.57 | 26.85 | 15.13 | 18.68 – 22.45 |
| 2030 | 20.25 | 28.36 | 13.23 | 17.47 – 23.03 |
| 2035 | 19.46 | 30.93 | 9.53 | 14.71 – 24.21 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.5m | 34.1m | 31.1m | 31.5m – 33.5m |
| 2028 | 33.4m | 35m | 31.9m | 30.9m – 35.9m |
| 2030 | 34.2m | 35.9m | 32.7m | 30.4m – 38.1m |
| 2035 | 36.4m | 38.1m | 34.8m | 28.8m – 43.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.16 | 12.85 | -9.35 | -1.44 – 1.77 |
| 2028 | 0.54 | 15 | -10 | -2.25 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 0.92 | 15 | -10 | -2.71 – 4.55 |
| 2035 | 1.87 | 15 | -10 | -3.45 – 7.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2027 | 3.3bn | 4bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2029 | 3.6bn | 4.6bn | 2.7bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 5.8bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 5.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.17 | 7.02 | 3.31 | 4.8 – 5.53 |
| 2027 | 4.77 | 7.98 | 1.56 | 4.05 – 5.49 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 8.71 | 0.43 | 3.57 – 5.57 |
| 2034 | 4.41 | 10.27 | 0 | 2.81 – 6.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2027 | 3.3bn | 4bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2029 | 3.6bn | 4.6bn | 2.7bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 5.8bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 5.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 3.3 | 2.63 | 2.86 – 3.06 |
| 2028 | 2.81 | 3.39 | 2.22 | 2.58 – 3.03 |
| 2030 | 2.65 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.32 – 2.98 |
| 2035 | 2.26 | 3.32 | 1.19 | 1.73 – 2.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MDG · API docs
