Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Maldives: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.62 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+16% skill vs naive; realized ±4.6152 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Maldives: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-17.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.94 | 16.55 | -28.42 | -10.62 – -1.25 |
| 2028 | -1.01 | 30 | -30 | -9.01 – 6.99 |
| 2030 | 3.92 | 30 | -30 | -6.66 – 14.49 |
| 2035 | 16.23 | 30 | -30 | -0.88 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 80.37 | 107.93 | 56.49 | 75.15 – 85.6 |
| 2027 | 84.69 | 132.42 | 43.33 | 73.81 – 95.58 |
| 2029 | 89.01 | 150 | 35.61 | 73.09 – 104.93 |
| 2034 | 99.81 | 150 | 24.29 | 71.39 – 128.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 10.3bn | 6.2bn | 7.7bn – 8.5bn |
| 2028 | 9bn | 12.8bn | 5.8bn | 8.1bn – 9.9bn |
| 2030 | 10bn | 14.8bn | 5.8bn | 8.6bn – 11.3bn |
| 2035 | 12.3bn | 19.1bn | 6.3bn | 9.5bn – 15bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.62 | 12 | -10 | -3.9 – 12 |
| 2028 | 10.31 | 12 | -10 | -9.92 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.2k | 19.6k | 11.4k | 14.4k – 16k |
| 2028 | 16.8k | 24.4k | 10.2k | 15k – 18.5k |
| 2030 | 18.3k | 28.1k | 9.8k | 15.7k – 20.9k |
| 2035 | 22.2k | 36.1k | 10.1k | 17k – 27.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed129.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 133.81 | 185.6 | 74.05 | 123.7 – 143.92 |
| 2028 | 150.63 | 240.33 | 47.12 | 129.59 – 171.66 |
| 2030 | 167.44 | 283.25 | 33.82 | 136.23 – 198.65 |
| 2035 | 209.48 | 300 | 20.51 | 150.77 – 268.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.26(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 78.96 | 90.75 | 67.16 | 75.89 – 82.02 |
| 2027 | 80.35 | 100.78 | 59.92 | 73.36 – 87.33 |
| 2029 | 81.74 | 108.11 | 55.36 | 71.16 – 92.31 |
| 2034 | 85.22 | 122.52 | 47.91 | 65.87 – 104.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.14 | 8.07 | 2.01 | 4.41 – 5.87 |
| 2028 | 8.78 | 13.84 | 3.35 | 7.23 – 10.32 |
| 2030 | 12.41 | 18.94 | 5.41 | 9.97 – 14.85 |
| 2035 | 21.49 | 30.73 | 11.59 | 16 – 26.98 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.33 | 48.46 | 23.96 | 32.89 – 37.77 |
| 2027 | 35.85 | 58.59 | 16.15 | 30.89 – 40.82 |
| 2029 | 36.37 | 65.72 | 10.94 | 29.27 – 43.48 |
| 2034 | 37.68 | 70 | 1.7 | 25.72 – 49.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed529.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 528.5k | 553.5k | 505.3k | 512.1k – 544.9k |
| 2028 | 530.6k | 555.7k | 507.3k | 491.3k – 569.8k |
| 2030 | 532.7k | 557.8k | 509.3k | 472.2k – 593.1k |
| 2035 | 537.8k | 572.7k | 505.4k | 426.3k – 649.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.74 | 15 | -10 | -2.21 – 13.68 |
| 2028 | 7.61 | 15 | -10 | -6.35 – 15 |
| 2030 | 9.49 | 15 | -10 | -8.83 – 15 |
| 2035 | 14.19 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed984.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 644.8m | 935.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.7bn | 447.7m | 927.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 2bn | 333.4m | 928.1m – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.5bn | 168.3m | 928.6m – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.52 | 3.58 | 0 | 1.18 – 1.86 |
| 2027 | 1.78 | 5.35 | 0 | 1.15 – 2.41 |
| 2029 | 1.91 | 6.52 | 0 | 1.05 – 2.77 |
| 2034 | 2.01 | 8.53 | 0 | 0.69 – 3.33 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed984.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 644.8m | 935.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.7bn | 447.7m | 927.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 2bn | 333.4m | 928.1m – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.5bn | 168.3m | 928.6m – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.31 | 5.05 | 3.57 | 4.13 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.91 | 5.19 | 2.63 | 3.53 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 3.51 | 5.16 | 1.86 | 2.98 – 4.04 |
| 2035 | 2.51 | 4.84 | 0.17 | 1.75 – 3.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MDV · API docs
