Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.08 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±5.0152 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed41.12(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42.08 | 49.89 | 35.32 | 40.29 – 43.87 |
| 2026 | 44.01 | 57.53 | 32.29 | 39.96 – 48.05 |
| 2028 | 45.93 | 63.39 | 30.81 | 39.77 – 52.1 |
| 2033 | 50.75 | 75.43 | 29.36 | 39.11 – 62.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2T | 6.1T | 4.5T | 5T – 5.4T |
| 2028 | 5.4T | 6.9T | 4.2T | 5T – 5.9T |
| 2030 | 5.7T | 7.5T | 4T | 5T – 6.3T |
| 2035 | 6.2T | 8.9T | 3.9T | 4.9T – 7.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 11.76 | -4.43 | 1.59 – 4.58 |
| 2028 | 3.78 | 12 | -9.24 | 1.1 – 6.47 |
| 2030 | 4.48 | 12 | -10 | 0.89 – 8.07 |
| 2035 | 6.23 | 12 | -10 | 0.66 – 11.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 7.3k | 5.3k | 6k – 6.4k |
| 2028 | 6.3k | 8.2k | 4.6k | 5.8k – 6.8k |
| 2030 | 6.4k | 8.8k | 4.2k | 5.6k – 7.2k |
| 2035 | 6.5k | 10k | 3.5k | 5.1k – 8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.87 | 41.55 | 36.19 | 37.66 – 40.07 |
| 2027 | 39.89 | 44.53 | 35.25 | 36.94 – 42.84 |
| 2029 | 40.91 | 46.9 | 34.92 | 36.27 – 45.56 |
| 2034 | 43.47 | 51.94 | 35 | 34.45 – 52.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.26 | 5.48 | -1.19 | 1.51 – 3.01 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 7.77 | -3.77 | 0.86 – 3.54 |
| 2030 | 2.14 | 9.33 | -5 | 0.38 – 3.91 |
| 2035 | 2 | 12.17 | -5 | -0.58 – 4.57 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.8 | 26.1 | 23.67 | 24.03 – 25.57 |
| 2028 | 25.91 | 27.95 | 24.15 | 24 – 27.83 |
| 2030 | 27.03 | 29.66 | 24.76 | 23.96 – 30.1 |
| 2035 | 29.83 | 33.55 | 26.61 | 23.64 – 36.02 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed828m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 824m | 862.9m | 787.8m | 798.4m – 849.5m |
| 2028 | 840.3m | 880m | 803.5m | 778.2m – 902.5m |
| 2030 | 856.7m | 897.1m | 819.1m | 759.4m – 953.9m |
| 2035 | 897.5m | 939.9m | 858.1m | 711.3m – 1.1bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.77 | 3.33 | -3.85 | -1.3 – -0.24 |
| 2028 | -1.66 | 5.45 | -7 | -2.63 – -0.69 |
| 2030 | -2.55 | 6.63 | -9.43 | -3.9 – -1.2 |
| 2035 | -4.77 | 8.22 | -10 | -7.15 – -2.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.5(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 18.83 | 9.17 | 13.04 – 14.96 |
| 2027 | 16.97 | 25.34 | 8.6 | 14.87 – 19.06 |
| 2029 | 18.42 | 29.23 | 7.62 | 15.3 – 21.55 |
| 2034 | 19.59 | 34.87 | 4.31 | 14.11 – 25.06 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.47 | 8.05 | 6.89 | 7.24 – 7.71 |
| 2028 | 6.86 | 7.86 | 5.86 | 6.35 – 7.37 |
| 2030 | 6.24 | 7.54 | 4.95 | 5.53 – 6.95 |
| 2035 | 4.71 | 6.54 | 2.87 | 3.67 – 5.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MEA · API docs
