Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mexico: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.38 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±5.1282 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mexico: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.59 | 2.4 | -3.57 | -1.21 – 0.04 |
| 2029 | -0.97 | 4.2 | -6.14 | -2.07 – 0.14 |
| 2031 | -1.35 | 5.33 | -8.02 | -2.82 – 0.12 |
| 2036 | -2.29 | 7.14 | -11.73 | -4.59 – -0 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.54 | 45.74 | 34.17 | 38.02 – 41.06 |
| 2028 | 39.33 | 50.06 | 30.02 | 35.91 – 42.75 |
| 2030 | 39.11 | 52.97 | 27.1 | 34.01 – 44.22 |
| 2035 | 38.58 | 58.18 | 21.6 | 29.61 – 47.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2T | 2.5T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2029 | 2.4T | 3T | 1.9T | 2.2T – 2.6T |
| 2031 | 2.6T | 3.4T | 2T | 2.3T – 3T |
| 2036 | 3.2T | 4.3T | 2.3T | 2.5T – 3.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.38 | 3.8 | -0.72 | 0.95 – 1.8 |
| 2029 | 0.81 | 5.01 | -2.83 | 0.06 – 1.55 |
| 2031 | 0.24 | 5.66 | -4.46 | -0.75 – 1.22 |
| 2036 | -1.19 | 6.47 | -7.84 | -2.66 – 0.27 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.3k | 18.9k | 14k | 15.7k – 16.9k |
| 2029 | 17.7k | 22.3k | 13.8k | 16.3k – 19.1k |
| 2031 | 19.1k | 25k | 14k | 16.9k – 21.4k |
| 2036 | 22.7k | 31k | 15.5k | 18k – 27.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 63.76 | 69.6 | 57.02 | 61.78 – 65.74 |
| 2029 | 65.88 | 75.99 | 54.21 | 61.01 – 70.76 |
| 2031 | 68 | 81.06 | 52.94 | 60.28 – 75.72 |
| 2036 | 73.31 | 91.77 | 52 | 58.1 – 88.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.2 | 48.14 | 32.25 | 38.34 – 42.06 |
| 2028 | 40.03 | 53.8 | 26.27 | 36 – 44.06 |
| 2030 | 39.87 | 57.64 | 22.1 | 33.96 – 45.78 |
| 2035 | 39.46 | 64.59 | 14.32 | 29.3 – 49.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.06 | 7.11 | 0.78 | 3.31 – 4.8 |
| 2029 | 4.19 | 9.48 | -1.49 | 2.81 – 5.56 |
| 2031 | 4.32 | 11.15 | -3.01 | 2.46 – 6.18 |
| 2036 | 4.64 | 14.31 | -5 | 1.76 – 7.53 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.51 | 24.99 | 20.36 | 21.79 – 23.22 |
| 2028 | 22.73 | 27.03 | 19.01 | 21.03 – 24.44 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 28.51 | 18.15 | 20.33 – 25.59 |
| 2035 | 23.52 | 31.37 | 16.72 | 18.64 – 28.41 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed131.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 134.3m | 140.6m | 128.4m | 130.1m – 138.4m |
| 2029 | 137m | 143.4m | 131m | 126.8m – 147.1m |
| 2031 | 139.7m | 146.3m | 133.5m | 123.8m – 155.5m |
| 2036 | 146.4m | 153.3m | 140m | 116.1m – 176.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.74 | 1.51 | -2.43 | -1.04 – -0.44 |
| 2028 | -0.65 | 3.25 | -3.57 | -1.18 – -0.11 |
| 2030 | -0.56 | 4.47 | -4.33 | -1.27 – 0.15 |
| 2035 | -0.33 | 6.79 | -5.66 | -1.38 – 0.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed239.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 249.5bn | 264.5bn | 234.6bn | 241.8bn – 257.3bn |
| 2028 | 274.7bn | 300.6bn | 248.8bn | 254.4bn – 295bn |
| 2030 | 299.8bn | 333.3bn | 266.4bn | 265.8bn – 333.9bn |
| 2035 | 362.7bn | 410bn | 315.4bn | 287.5bn – 437.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.81 | 4.99 | 2.63 | 3.57 – 4.05 |
| 2028 | 3.89 | 5.93 | 1.84 | 3.39 – 4.39 |
| 2030 | 3.92 | 6.56 | 1.29 | 3.21 – 4.64 |
| 2035 | 3.95 | 7.68 | 0.23 | 2.75 – 5.16 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed256.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 268.3bn | 286.2bn | 250.4bn | 260bn – 276.6bn |
| 2028 | 298.3bn | 329.3bn | 267.3bn | 276.2bn – 320.4bn |
| 2030 | 328.3bn | 368.3bn | 288.3bn | 291bn – 365.5bn |
| 2035 | 403.2bn | 459.8bn | 346.6bn | 319.6bn – 486.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.46 | 3.07 | 1.85 | 2.33 – 2.59 |
| 2029 | 1.98 | 3.03 | 0.92 | 1.72 – 2.23 |
| 2031 | 1.5 | 2.86 | 0.13 | 1.17 – 1.82 |
| 2036 | 0.29 | 2.22 | 0 | 0 – 0.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MEX · API docs
