Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mexico: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 43/100); the economy is in slowdown; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.13 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±1.4739 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mexico: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.42 | 2.82 | -3.65 | -1.09 – 0.26 |
| 2028 | -0.45 | 5.15 | -6.05 | -1.64 – 0.74 |
| 2030 | -0.48 | 6.75 | -7.71 | -2.04 – 1.07 |
| 2035 | -0.57 | 9.66 | -10.79 | -2.81 – 1.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.54 | 45.74 | 34.17 | 38.02 – 41.06 |
| 2028 | 39.33 | 50.06 | 30.02 | 35.91 – 42.75 |
| 2030 | 39.11 | 52.97 | 27.1 | 34.01 – 44.22 |
| 2035 | 38.58 | 58.18 | 21.6 | 29.61 – 47.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9T | 2.2T | 1.6T | 1.9T – 2T |
| 2028 | 2.1T | 2.7T | 1.7T | 2T – 2.3T |
| 2030 | 2.4T | 3.1T | 1.8T | 2.1T – 2.6T |
| 2035 | 2.9T | 3.9T | 2T | 2.3T – 3.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13 | 12 | -10 | -2.11 – 2.36 |
| 2028 | -0.8 | 12 | -10 | -4.7 – 3.09 |
| 2030 | -1.73 | 12 | -10 | -6.83 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | -4.05 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.61 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.5k | 17k | 12.4k | 14k – 15k |
| 2028 | 16k | 20.2k | 12.3k | 14.7k – 17.3k |
| 2030 | 17.5k | 23k | 12.7k | 15.4k – 19.5k |
| 2035 | 21.2k | 29k | 14.4k | 16.8k – 25.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.49 | 68.69 | 55.34 | 60.54 – 64.45 |
| 2028 | 63.88 | 74.62 | 51.49 | 59.15 – 68.6 |
| 2030 | 65.26 | 79.13 | 49.26 | 57.85 – 72.67 |
| 2035 | 68.73 | 88.34 | 46.1 | 54.47 – 82.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.2 | 48.14 | 32.25 | 38.34 – 42.06 |
| 2028 | 40.03 | 53.8 | 26.27 | 36 – 44.06 |
| 2030 | 39.87 | 57.64 | 22.1 | 33.96 – 45.78 |
| 2035 | 39.46 | 64.59 | 14.32 | 29.3 – 49.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.55 | 7.32 | -0.48 | 2.66 – 4.44 |
| 2028 | 2.27 | 8.79 | -4.71 | 0.72 – 3.83 |
| 2030 | 0.99 | 9.41 | -5 | -0.96 – 2.94 |
| 2035 | -2.21 | 9.69 | -5 | -5 – 0.78 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.51 | 24.99 | 20.36 | 21.79 – 23.22 |
| 2028 | 22.73 | 27.03 | 19.01 | 21.03 – 24.44 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 28.51 | 18.15 | 20.33 – 25.59 |
| 2035 | 23.52 | 31.37 | 16.72 | 18.64 – 28.41 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed131.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 131.7m | 137.9m | 125.9m | 127.6m – 135.7m |
| 2028 | 132.8m | 139.1m | 127m | 123m – 142.7m |
| 2030 | 134m | 140.4m | 128.2m | 118.8m – 149.3m |
| 2035 | 137m | 143.5m | 131m | 108.6m – 165.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.74 | 1.51 | -2.43 | -1.04 – -0.44 |
| 2028 | -0.65 | 3.25 | -3.57 | -1.18 – -0.11 |
| 2030 | -0.56 | 4.47 | -4.33 | -1.27 – 0.15 |
| 2035 | -0.33 | 6.79 | -5.66 | -1.38 – 0.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed239.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 249.5bn | 264.5bn | 234.6bn | 241.8bn – 257.3bn |
| 2028 | 274.7bn | 300.6bn | 248.8bn | 254.4bn – 295bn |
| 2030 | 299.8bn | 333.3bn | 266.4bn | 265.8bn – 333.9bn |
| 2035 | 362.7bn | 410bn | 315.4bn | 287.5bn – 437.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.81 | 4.99 | 2.63 | 3.57 – 4.05 |
| 2028 | 3.89 | 5.93 | 1.84 | 3.39 – 4.39 |
| 2030 | 3.92 | 6.56 | 1.29 | 3.21 – 4.64 |
| 2035 | 3.95 | 7.68 | 0.23 | 2.75 – 5.16 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed256.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 268.3bn | 286.2bn | 250.4bn | 260bn – 276.6bn |
| 2028 | 298.3bn | 329.3bn | 267.3bn | 276.2bn – 320.4bn |
| 2030 | 328.3bn | 368.3bn | 288.3bn | 291bn – 365.5bn |
| 2035 | 403.2bn | 459.8bn | 346.6bn | 319.6bn – 486.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.29 | 2.83 | 1.75 | 2.17 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 1.53 | 2.47 | 0.59 | 1.31 – 1.75 |
| 2030 | 0.77 | 1.98 | 0 | 0.5 – 1.03 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.72 | 0 | 0 – 0.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MEX · API docs
