Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Marshall Islands: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.78 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.58) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±1.0831 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Marshall Islands: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.25 | 30 | -30 | 2.08 – 20.42 |
| 2028 | 15.55 | 30 | -30 | -0.77 – 30 |
| 2030 | 19.85 | 30 | -30 | -1.85 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -3.24 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.77 | 45.78 | 27.09 | 33.76 – 37.77 |
| 2028 | 35.22 | 52.56 | 20.19 | 31.06 – 39.39 |
| 2030 | 34.68 | 57.07 | 15.28 | 28.71 – 40.65 |
| 2035 | 33.32 | 64.98 | 5.88 | 23.47 – 43.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed308m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 319.7m | 337.8m | 304m | 309.8m – 329.6m |
| 2028 | 348.9m | 380.3m | 321.7m | 323.1m – 374.7m |
| 2030 | 378.1m | 418.6m | 343m | 335.2m – 421m |
| 2035 | 451.1m | 508.5m | 401.5m | 357.6m – 544.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.78 | 12 | -4.36 | 2.95 – 6.62 |
| 2028 | 10.06 | 12 | -5.77 | 6.54 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -8.44 | 7.11 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.52 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9k | 9.5k | 8.5k | 8.7k – 9.2k |
| 2028 | 10.2k | 11.1k | 9.4k | 9.4k – 10.9k |
| 2030 | 11.4k | 12.5k | 10.3k | 10.1k – 12.7k |
| 2035 | 14.4k | 16k | 12.9k | 11.4k – 17.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.02 | 12.42 | 7.25 | 9.49 – 10.55 |
| 2028 | 6.46 | 10.62 | 1.67 | 5.51 – 7.41 |
| 2030 | 2.91 | 8.27 | 0 | 1.85 – 3.96 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.59 | 0 | 0 – 1.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.49 | 117.46 | 37.53 | 70.14 – 84.85 |
| 2028 | 72.74 | 141.96 | 3.52 | 58.65 – 86.83 |
| 2030 | 67.99 | 150 | 0 | 48.87 – 87.11 |
| 2035 | 56.1 | 150 | 0 | 27.78 – 84.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.68 | 10.41 | 0.61 | 4.54 – 6.82 |
| 2028 | 6.1 | 14.3 | -2.68 | 3.99 – 8.21 |
| 2030 | 6.52 | 17.1 | -4.82 | 3.65 – 9.39 |
| 2035 | 7.57 | 22.54 | -5 | 3.04 – 12.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.86(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.81 | 56.21 | 0 | 17.68 – 27.95 |
| 2027 | 22.44 | 70 | 0 | 13.1 – 31.78 |
| 2029 | 22.06 | 70 | 0 | 9.63 – 34.49 |
| 2034 | 21.12 | 70 | 0 | 2.65 – 39.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.6k | 38.4k | 35k | 35.5k – 37.8k |
| 2028 | 35.2k | 36.9k | 33.7k | 32.6k – 37.8k |
| 2030 | 33.8k | 35.4k | 32.4k | 30k – 37.7k |
| 2035 | 30.4k | 31.8k | 29k | 24.1k – 36.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MHL · API docs
