Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Marshall Islands: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 35/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.94 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±8.562 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Marshall Islands: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.44 | 30 | -30 | -4.41 – 11.28 |
| 2029 | 5.51 | 30 | -30 | -8.24 – 19.27 |
| 2031 | 7.59 | 30 | -30 | -10.43 – 25.62 |
| 2036 | 12.78 | 30 | -30 | -13.9 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.77 | 45.78 | 27.09 | 33.76 – 37.77 |
| 2028 | 35.22 | 52.56 | 20.19 | 31.06 – 39.39 |
| 2030 | 34.68 | 57.07 | 15.28 | 28.71 – 40.65 |
| 2035 | 33.32 | 64.98 | 5.88 | 23.47 – 43.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed308m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 358.9m | 383m | 338.1m | 347.8m – 370.1m |
| 2029 | 400.9m | 442.6m | 364.8m | 371.3m – 430.6m |
| 2031 | 442.9m | 496.7m | 396.3m | 392.6m – 493.2m |
| 2036 | 547.9m | 623.9m | 482m | 434.3m – 661.6m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.94 | 12 | -4.54 | 2.25 – 5.63 |
| 2029 | 4.74 | 12 | -9.94 | 1.69 – 7.79 |
| 2031 | 5.53 | 12 | -10 | 1.45 – 9.62 |
| 2036 | 7.53 | 12 | -10 | 1.17 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.3k | 11k | 9.7k | 10k – 10.6k |
| 2029 | 11.9k | 13.1k | 10.8k | 11k – 12.8k |
| 2031 | 13.5k | 15.1k | 12.1k | 12k – 15k |
| 2036 | 17.5k | 19.7k | 15.5k | 13.9k – 21.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.22 | 19.74 | 10.01 | 14.28 – 16.16 |
| 2029 | 12.27 | 20.08 | 3.25 | 10.48 – 14.06 |
| 2031 | 9.31 | 19.4 | 0 | 7.01 – 11.61 |
| 2036 | 1.92 | 16.2 | 0 | 0 – 4.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.49 | 117.46 | 37.53 | 70.14 – 84.85 |
| 2028 | 72.74 | 141.96 | 3.52 | 58.65 – 86.83 |
| 2030 | 67.99 | 150 | 0 | 48.87 – 87.11 |
| 2035 | 56.1 | 150 | 0 | 27.78 – 84.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.15 | 12.66 | 3.32 | 7.02 – 9.28 |
| 2029 | 10.81 | 18.62 | 2.45 | 8.56 – 13.06 |
| 2031 | 13.47 | 23.55 | 2.67 | 10.16 – 16.79 |
| 2036 | 20.12 | 34.38 | 4.85 | 13.74 – 26.5 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.86(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.81 | 56.21 | 0 | 17.68 – 27.95 |
| 2027 | 22.44 | 70 | 0 | 13.1 – 31.78 |
| 2029 | 22.06 | 70 | 0 | 9.63 – 34.49 |
| 2034 | 21.12 | 70 | 0 | 2.65 – 39.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.3k | 37k | 33.8k | 34.2k – 36.4k |
| 2029 | 33.9k | 35.5k | 32.4k | 31.4k – 36.4k |
| 2031 | 32.5k | 34.1k | 31.1k | 28.8k – 36.2k |
| 2036 | 29k | 30.4k | 27.7k | 23k – 35k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MHL · API docs
