Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Middle income: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.65 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±0.1233 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Middle income: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.71 | 28.45 | 23.33 | 24.9 – 26.51 |
| 2028 | 26.5 | 31.25 | 22.38 | 24.54 – 28.46 |
| 2030 | 27.3 | 33.43 | 21.98 | 24.2 – 30.4 |
| 2035 | 29.29 | 37.96 | 21.77 | 23.21 – 35.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42T | 45.7T | 38.8T | 40.7T – 43.3T |
| 2028 | 45.1T | 51.5T | 39.6T | 41.8T – 48.4T |
| 2030 | 48.2T | 56.5T | 41T | 42.7T – 53.7T |
| 2035 | 55.9T | 67.6T | 45.8T | 44.3T – 67.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.65 | 12 | -2.64 | 3.18 – 6.13 |
| 2028 | 4.98 | 12 | -7.65 | 2.31 – 7.65 |
| 2030 | 5.31 | 12 | -10 | 1.75 – 8.87 |
| 2035 | 6.12 | 12 | -10 | 0.71 – 11.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.9k | 7.6k | 6.4k | 6.7k – 7.2k |
| 2028 | 7.4k | 8.5k | 6.4k | 6.8k – 7.9k |
| 2030 | 7.8k | 9.2k | 6.5k | 6.9k – 8.7k |
| 2035 | 8.8k | 10.9k | 7.1k | 7k – 10.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.41 | 27.13 | 21.7 | 23.61 – 25.22 |
| 2028 | 24.83 | 29.53 | 20.13 | 22.92 – 26.74 |
| 2030 | 25.25 | 31.32 | 19.19 | 22.3 – 28.2 |
| 2035 | 26.31 | 34.89 | 17.72 | 20.78 – 31.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.78 | 8.81 | -1.62 | 2.6 – 4.95 |
| 2028 | 3.8 | 12.53 | -5 | 1.69 – 5.92 |
| 2030 | 3.83 | 15.1 | -5 | 1.03 – 6.64 |
| 2035 | 3.91 | 19.83 | -5 | -0.25 – 8.06 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.12(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.96 | 33.64 | 30.5 | 30.97 – 32.95 |
| 2027 | 31.56 | 33.62 | 29.77 | 29.22 – 33.89 |
| 2029 | 31.16 | 33.82 | 28.85 | 27.62 – 34.69 |
| 2034 | 30.15 | 33.92 | 26.89 | 23.9 – 36.41 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6bn | 6.3bn | 5.7bn | 5.8bn – 6.2bn |
| 2028 | 6.1bn | 6.4bn | 5.8bn | 5.6bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.1bn | 6.4bn | 5.8bn | 5.4bn – 6.8bn |
| 2035 | 6.3bn | 6.5bn | 6bn | 5bn – 7.5bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.86 | 7.94 | 0.8 | 3.29 – 4.43 |
| 2028 | 4.76 | 11.82 | -0.54 | 3.65 – 5.87 |
| 2030 | 5.66 | 14.78 | -1.18 | 4.06 – 7.25 |
| 2035 | 7.9 | 15 | -1.77 | 5.02 – 10.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.08 | 12.8 | 7.36 | 9.5 – 10.66 |
| 2028 | 10.65 | 15.36 | 5.94 | 9.42 – 11.88 |
| 2030 | 10.93 | 17.01 | 4.84 | 9.12 – 12.73 |
| 2035 | 11.15 | 19.75 | 2.54 | 8.05 – 14.25 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5 | 5.06 | 3.95 | 4.35 – 4.66 |
| 2028 | 3.74 | 4.7 | 2.78 | 3.41 – 4.07 |
| 2030 | 2.97 | 4.21 | 1.74 | 2.55 – 3.4 |
| 2035 | 1.06 | 2.82 | 0 | 0.63 – 1.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MIC · API docs
