Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
North Macedonia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 56/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.09 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±4.3245 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
North Macedonia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.16 | 0.71 | -11.03 | -6.44 – -3.88 |
| 2029 | -5.48 | 4.69 | -15.64 | -7.81 – -3.14 |
| 2031 | -5.79 | 7.33 | -18.91 | -8.93 – -2.65 |
| 2036 | -6.58 | 11.97 | -25.14 | -11.42 – -1.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.98 | 71.32 | 50.15 | 57.4 – 62.56 |
| 2028 | 60.63 | 80.27 | 43.61 | 54.91 – 66.35 |
| 2030 | 61.29 | 86.65 | 39.31 | 52.76 – 69.81 |
| 2035 | 62.92 | 98.79 | 31.84 | 47.73 – 78.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.9bn | 25bn | 21.1bn | 22.2bn – 23.6bn |
| 2029 | 26.3bn | 29.9bn | 23.1bn | 24.3bn – 28.2bn |
| 2031 | 29.6bn | 34.3bn | 25.6bn | 26.3bn – 33bn |
| 2036 | 38bn | 44.6bn | 32.3bn | 30.1bn – 45.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.09 | 4.8 | 1.61 | 2.76 – 3.43 |
| 2029 | 3.06 | 6.02 | 0.5 | 2.42 – 3.7 |
| 2031 | 3.03 | 6.85 | -0.27 | 2.15 – 3.91 |
| 2036 | 2.96 | 8.35 | -1.72 | 1.58 – 4.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.7k | 13.9k | 11.7k | 12.3k – 13.1k |
| 2029 | 14.6k | 16.6k | 12.9k | 13.5k – 15.7k |
| 2031 | 16.5k | 19.1k | 14.3k | 14.6k – 18.4k |
| 2036 | 21.3k | 24.9k | 18.1k | 16.9k – 25.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 54.72 | 60.89 | 47.6 | 52.89 – 56.55 |
| 2029 | 57.96 | 68.65 | 45.63 | 53.53 – 62.39 |
| 2031 | 61.2 | 75 | 45.28 | 54.18 – 68.22 |
| 2036 | 69.3 | 88.82 | 46.78 | 54.92 – 83.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73.85 | 90.56 | 57.13 | 70.11 – 77.59 |
| 2028 | 74.76 | 103.71 | 45.8 | 66.74 – 82.78 |
| 2030 | 75.66 | 113.04 | 38.29 | 63.89 – 87.44 |
| 2035 | 77.93 | 130.79 | 25.08 | 57.37 – 98.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.79 | 16.92 | -5 | 2.02 – 7.56 |
| 2029 | 5.39 | 26.4 | -5 | 0.47 – 10.3 |
| 2031 | 5.99 | 33.11 | -5 | -0.51 – 12.48 |
| 2036 | 7.48 | 45.85 | -5 | -2.22 – 17.18 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.69 | 26.53 | 21.23 | 22.91 – 24.48 |
| 2027 | 24.21 | 29.13 | 19.95 | 22.35 – 26.08 |
| 2029 | 24.74 | 31.09 | 19.23 | 21.85 – 27.62 |
| 2034 | 26.04 | 35.02 | 18.26 | 20.59 – 31.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.7m – 1.9m |
| 2029 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.7m – 1.9m |
| 2031 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.6m – 2m |
| 2036 | 1.7m | 1.8m | 1.7m | 1.4m – 2.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.65 | 15 | -3.87 | 3.16 – 6.15 |
| 2028 | 6.63 | 15 | -8.13 | 3.85 – 9.41 |
| 2030 | 8.6 | 15 | -10 | 4.74 – 12.47 |
| 2035 | 13.54 | 15 | -10 | 6.88 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1bn | 5.6bn | 4.6bn | 4.9bn – 5.3bn |
| 2028 | 5.7bn | 6.6bn | 4.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.1bn |
| 2030 | 6.4bn | 7.5bn | 5.2bn | 5.6bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 7.9bn | 9.6bn | 6.2bn | 6.3bn – 9.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 5.71 | 3.26 | 4.22 – 4.74 |
| 2028 | 4.39 | 6.52 | 2.26 | 3.85 – 4.92 |
| 2030 | 4.34 | 7.09 | 1.59 | 3.57 – 5.11 |
| 2035 | 4.3 | 8.19 | 0.41 | 3.02 – 5.59 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2bn | 6.8bn | 5.6bn | 6bn – 6.4bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 8.1bn | 6.1bn | 6.6bn – 7.6bn |
| 2030 | 8bn | 9.3bn | 6.7bn | 7.1bn – 8.9bn |
| 2035 | 10.2bn | 12.1bn | 8.4bn | 8.1bn – 12.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.67 | 11.61 | 9.73 | 10.34 – 11 |
| 2029 | 9.01 | 10.64 | 7.38 | 8.33 – 9.69 |
| 2031 | 7.35 | 9.45 | 5.25 | 6.44 – 8.26 |
| 2036 | 3.19 | 6.16 | 0.22 | 2.23 – 4.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MKD · API docs
