Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
North Macedonia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.08 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.9798 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
North Macedonia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.66 | 1.55 | -10.87 | -6 – -3.32 |
| 2028 | -5.18 | 5.57 | -15.93 | -7.62 – -2.74 |
| 2030 | -5.7 | 8.17 | -19.58 | -8.99 – -2.42 |
| 2035 | -7.01 | 12.62 | -26.63 | -12.13 – -1.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.98 | 71.32 | 50.15 | 57.4 – 62.56 |
| 2028 | 60.63 | 80.27 | 43.61 | 54.91 – 66.35 |
| 2030 | 61.29 | 86.65 | 39.31 | 52.76 – 69.81 |
| 2035 | 62.92 | 98.79 | 31.84 | 47.73 – 78.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.2bn | 22.2bn | 18.5bn | 19.6bn – 20.8bn |
| 2028 | 22.9bn | 26.4bn | 19.9bn | 21.2bn – 24.6bn |
| 2030 | 25.7bn | 30.1bn | 21.8bn | 22.7bn – 28.6bn |
| 2035 | 32.5bn | 38.8bn | 27bn | 25.7bn – 39.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.08 | 12 | -2.96 | 2.66 – 5.5 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 12 | -6.75 | 2.84 – 8.05 |
| 2030 | 6.8 | 12 | -8.94 | 3.23 – 10.38 |
| 2035 | 10.21 | 12 | -10 | 4.3 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.1k | 12.2k | 10.2k | 10.8k – 11.4k |
| 2028 | 12.6k | 14.5k | 11k | 11.7k – 13.6k |
| 2030 | 14.2k | 16.6k | 12.1k | 12.5k – 15.8k |
| 2035 | 18k | 21.4k | 15k | 14.2k – 21.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.27 | 60.51 | 47.07 | 52.44 – 56.1 |
| 2028 | 57.81 | 68.62 | 45.34 | 53.37 – 62.25 |
| 2030 | 61.35 | 75.31 | 45.25 | 54.3 – 68.41 |
| 2035 | 70.2 | 89.94 | 47.43 | 55.64 – 84.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73.85 | 90.56 | 57.13 | 70.11 – 77.59 |
| 2028 | 74.76 | 103.71 | 45.8 | 66.74 – 82.78 |
| 2030 | 75.66 | 113.04 | 38.29 | 63.89 – 87.44 |
| 2035 | 77.93 | 130.79 | 25.08 | 57.37 – 98.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.87 | 17.09 | -5 | 2.08 – 7.66 |
| 2028 | 5.69 | 26.85 | -5 | 0.72 – 10.65 |
| 2030 | 6.5 | 33.83 | -5 | -0.07 – 13.08 |
| 2035 | 8.54 | 47.18 | -5 | -1.39 – 18.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.69 | 26.53 | 21.23 | 22.91 – 24.48 |
| 2027 | 24.21 | 29.13 | 19.95 | 22.35 – 26.08 |
| 2029 | 24.74 | 31.09 | 19.23 | 21.85 – 27.62 |
| 2034 | 26.04 | 35.02 | 18.26 | 20.59 – 31.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.8m – 1.9m |
| 2028 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.7m – 2m |
| 2030 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.6m – 2m |
| 2035 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.4m – 2.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.65 | 15 | -3.87 | 3.16 – 6.15 |
| 2028 | 6.63 | 15 | -8.13 | 3.85 – 9.41 |
| 2030 | 8.6 | 15 | -10 | 4.74 – 12.47 |
| 2035 | 13.54 | 15 | -10 | 6.88 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1bn | 5.6bn | 4.6bn | 4.9bn – 5.3bn |
| 2028 | 5.7bn | 6.6bn | 4.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.1bn |
| 2030 | 6.4bn | 7.5bn | 5.2bn | 5.6bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 7.9bn | 9.6bn | 6.2bn | 6.3bn – 9.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 5.71 | 3.26 | 4.22 – 4.74 |
| 2028 | 4.39 | 6.52 | 2.26 | 3.85 – 4.92 |
| 2030 | 4.34 | 7.09 | 1.59 | 3.57 – 5.11 |
| 2035 | 4.3 | 8.19 | 0.41 | 3.02 – 5.59 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2bn | 6.8bn | 5.6bn | 6bn – 6.4bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 8.1bn | 6.1bn | 6.6bn – 7.6bn |
| 2030 | 8bn | 9.3bn | 6.7bn | 7.1bn – 8.9bn |
| 2035 | 10.2bn | 12.1bn | 8.4bn | 8.1bn – 12.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.3 | 12.24 | 10.36 | 10.95 – 11.65 |
| 2028 | 9.38 | 11.01 | 7.76 | 8.68 – 10.08 |
| 2030 | 7.47 | 9.57 | 5.37 | 6.55 – 8.39 |
| 2035 | 2.68 | 5.65 | 0 | 1.8 – 3.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MKD · API docs
