Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mali: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 21/100); the economy is in slowdown; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.79 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.58, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.58) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±4.1985 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mali: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.97 | 4.56 | -6.49 | -2.11 – 0.18 |
| 2029 | 0.1 | 9.68 | -9.47 | -1.9 – 2.11 |
| 2031 | 1.17 | 13.54 | -11.19 | -1.44 – 3.79 |
| 2036 | 3.85 | 21.33 | -13.64 | -0.34 – 8.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.25 | 26.59 | 18.49 | 21.28 – 23.23 |
| 2028 | 22.61 | 30.13 | 16.09 | 20.45 – 24.77 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 32.67 | 14.55 | 19.74 – 26.18 |
| 2035 | 23.85 | 37.57 | 11.95 | 18.07 – 29.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.9bn | 38.9bn | 33.3bn | 34.8bn – 37bn |
| 2029 | 41bn | 46.2bn | 36.5bn | 38bn – 44.1bn |
| 2031 | 46.2bn | 52.8bn | 40.4bn | 40.9bn – 51.4bn |
| 2036 | 59bn | 68.4bn | 50.8bn | 46.7bn – 71.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.79 | 6.61 | 5.09 | 5.57 – 6.02 |
| 2029 | 6.48 | 7.89 | 5.26 | 5.94 – 7.03 |
| 2031 | 7.17 | 8.99 | 5.6 | 6.3 – 8.05 |
| 2036 | 8.9 | 11.47 | 6.67 | 7.04 – 10.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4k | 1.5k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.4k |
| 2029 | 1.5k | 1.7k | 1.3k | 1.4k – 1.6k |
| 2031 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.4k | 1.4k – 1.8k |
| 2036 | 2k | 2.3k | 1.7k | 1.6k – 2.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.2 | 46.36 | 37.41 | 40.89 – 43.52 |
| 2029 | 45.01 | 52.21 | 36.7 | 41.68 – 48.34 |
| 2031 | 47.82 | 57.11 | 37.09 | 42.39 – 53.24 |
| 2036 | 54.83 | 67.98 | 39.66 | 43.46 – 66.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.22 | 31.6 | 20.84 | 24.98 – 27.46 |
| 2028 | 25.27 | 34.58 | 15.96 | 22.63 – 27.91 |
| 2030 | 24.32 | 36.34 | 12.3 | 20.53 – 28.11 |
| 2035 | 21.94 | 38.95 | 4.94 | 15.83 – 28.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.78 | 10.46 | -5 | -0.18 – 3.73 |
| 2029 | 0.27 | 15.31 | -5 | -3.11 – 3.65 |
| 2031 | -1.24 | 18.18 | -5 | -5 – 3.16 |
| 2036 | -5 | 22.47 | -5 | -5 – 1.89 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.62 | 24.43 | 19.19 | 20.88 – 22.37 |
| 2028 | 21.47 | 26.34 | 17.25 | 19.74 – 23.19 |
| 2030 | 21.31 | 27.6 | 15.87 | 18.71 – 23.92 |
| 2035 | 20.93 | 29.81 | 13.22 | 16.31 – 25.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 25.8m | 27.1m | 24.7m | 25m – 26.6m |
| 2029 | 26.7m | 28m | 25.6m | 24.8m – 28.7m |
| 2031 | 27.6m | 29m | 26.4m | 24.5m – 30.8m |
| 2036 | 29.9m | 31.3m | 28.6m | 23.7m – 36.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.66 | 9.97 | -2.82 | 1.71 – 3.62 |
| 2028 | 4.12 | 15 | -5.38 | 2.34 – 5.9 |
| 2030 | 5.57 | 15 | -6.69 | 3.08 – 8.06 |
| 2035 | 9.21 | 15 | -8.13 | 4.84 – 13.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.65 | 4.19 | 1.12 | 2.38 – 2.93 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 4.96 | 0 | 1.78 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | 1.95 | 5.39 | 0 | 1.27 – 2.63 |
| 2035 | 1.07 | 5.93 | 0 | 0.15 – 1.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MLI · API docs
