Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mali: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 22/100); the economy is in expansion; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.18 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6803 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mali: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.58 | 5.25 | -6.4 | -1.78 – 0.63 |
| 2028 | -0.13 | 9.96 | -10.21 | -2.23 – 1.98 |
| 2030 | 0.33 | 13.35 | -12.7 | -2.41 – 3.06 |
| 2035 | 1.45 | 19.87 | -16.97 | -2.54 – 5.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.25 | 26.59 | 18.49 | 21.28 – 23.23 |
| 2028 | 22.61 | 30.13 | 16.09 | 20.45 – 24.77 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 32.67 | 14.55 | 19.74 – 26.18 |
| 2035 | 23.85 | 37.57 | 11.95 | 18.07 – 29.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.7bn | 34.4bn | 29.3bn | 30.7bn – 32.7bn |
| 2028 | 35.7bn | 40.5bn | 31.6bn | 33bn – 38.3bn |
| 2030 | 39.7bn | 45.8bn | 34.4bn | 35.2bn – 44.2bn |
| 2035 | 49.7bn | 58.4bn | 42.2bn | 39.4bn – 60bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.18 | 9.29 | 3.49 | 5.56 – 6.8 |
| 2028 | 7.58 | 12 | 2.91 | 6.32 – 8.84 |
| 2030 | 8.98 | 12 | 2.96 | 7.1 – 10.86 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 3.48 | 8.44 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 1.3k | 1.1k | 1.2k – 1.3k |
| 2028 | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.2k | 1.2k – 1.4k |
| 2030 | 1.4k | 1.7k | 1.2k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2035 | 1.7k | 2.1k | 1.4k | 1.3k – 2.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.7 | 47.68 | 39.11 | 42.35 – 45.06 |
| 2028 | 47.3 | 54.19 | 39.35 | 43.8 – 50.8 |
| 2030 | 50.91 | 59.8 | 40.64 | 45.13 – 56.69 |
| 2035 | 59.91 | 72.49 | 45.4 | 47.48 – 72.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.22 | 31.6 | 20.84 | 24.98 – 27.46 |
| 2028 | 25.27 | 34.58 | 15.96 | 22.63 – 27.91 |
| 2030 | 24.32 | 36.34 | 12.3 | 20.53 – 28.11 |
| 2035 | 21.94 | 38.95 | 4.94 | 15.83 – 28.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.35 | 12.5 | -5 | 1.27 – 5.43 |
| 2028 | 3.45 | 19.3 | -5 | -0.22 – 7.13 |
| 2030 | 3.55 | 24.01 | -5 | -1.26 – 8.37 |
| 2035 | 3.81 | 32.73 | -5 | -3.21 – 10.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.62 | 24.43 | 19.19 | 20.88 – 22.37 |
| 2028 | 21.47 | 26.34 | 17.25 | 19.74 – 23.19 |
| 2030 | 21.31 | 27.6 | 15.87 | 18.71 – 23.92 |
| 2035 | 20.93 | 29.81 | 13.22 | 16.31 – 25.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25m | 26.2m | 23.9m | 24.2m – 25.8m |
| 2028 | 25.8m | 27m | 24.7m | 23.9m – 27.7m |
| 2030 | 26.6m | 27.9m | 25.4m | 23.6m – 29.6m |
| 2035 | 28.6m | 29.9m | 27.3m | 22.7m – 34.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.66 | 9.97 | -2.82 | 1.71 – 3.62 |
| 2028 | 4.12 | 15 | -5.38 | 2.34 – 5.9 |
| 2030 | 5.57 | 15 | -6.69 | 3.08 – 8.06 |
| 2035 | 9.21 | 15 | -8.13 | 4.84 – 13.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.65 | 4.19 | 1.12 | 2.38 – 2.93 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 4.96 | 0 | 1.78 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | 1.95 | 5.39 | 0 | 1.27 – 2.63 |
| 2035 | 1.07 | 5.93 | 0 | 0.15 – 1.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MLI · API docs
