Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Malta: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.24 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±1.4589 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Malta: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.94 | 16.81 | -8.94 | 1.25 – 6.63 |
| 2028 | 0.41 | 22.71 | -21.89 | -4.18 – 5.01 |
| 2030 | -3.11 | 25.68 | -30 | -9.23 – 3.01 |
| 2035 | -11.92 | 28.8 | -30 | -22.14 – -1.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed119.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 118.15 | 132.32 | 105.86 | 114.23 – 122.06 |
| 2028 | 116.22 | 140.76 | 94.95 | 107.13 – 125.3 |
| 2030 | 114.29 | 145.98 | 86.83 | 100.62 – 127.96 |
| 2035 | 109.47 | 150 | 70.63 | 85.55 – 133.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.7bn | 33.2bn | 26.7bn | 28.8bn – 30.7bn |
| 2028 | 34.6bn | 40.6bn | 29.3bn | 32bn – 37.1bn |
| 2030 | 39.4bn | 47.2bn | 32.6bn | 34.9bn – 43.9bn |
| 2035 | 51.5bn | 62.5bn | 41.9bn | 40.8bn – 62.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.24 | 12 | -10 | -1.21 – 5.69 |
| 2028 | -1.38 | 12 | -10 | -7.37 – 4.6 |
| 2030 | -5 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.04 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.41 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.5k | 57.1k | 44.8k | 48.9k – 52.1k |
| 2028 | 57k | 68.4k | 47.1k | 52.8k – 61.2k |
| 2030 | 63.5k | 78.1k | 50.7k | 56.2k – 70.7k |
| 2035 | 79.6k | 100.4k | 61.6k | 63.1k – 96.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.37 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 2.79 – 3.95 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 6.43 | 0 | 1.7 – 3.78 |
| 2031 | 2.43 | 7.19 | 0 | 1.06 – 3.8 |
| 2036 | 2.18 | 8.92 | 0 | 0.17 – 4.19 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.84 | 54.89 | 37.55 | 44.85 – 48.83 |
| 2028 | 46.92 | 60.87 | 30.83 | 42.53 – 51.32 |
| 2030 | 47.01 | 65.01 | 26.23 | 40.48 – 53.54 |
| 2035 | 47.21 | 72.67 | 17.84 | 35.74 – 58.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 98.73 | 116.9 | 80.57 | 94.37 – 103.09 |
| 2028 | 96.39 | 127.85 | 64.92 | 86.94 – 105.83 |
| 2030 | 94.04 | 134.66 | 53.42 | 80.3 – 107.78 |
| 2035 | 88.18 | 145.63 | 30.73 | 65.28 – 111.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.95 | 8.34 | -2.83 | 1.7 – 4.19 |
| 2028 | 3.95 | 13.29 | -5 | 1.68 – 6.21 |
| 2030 | 4.94 | 17.01 | -5 | 1.87 – 8.01 |
| 2035 | 7.44 | 24.5 | -5 | 2.47 – 12.41 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.16 | 6.76 | -2.78 | 1.1 – 3.21 |
| 2029 | 2.31 | 10.28 | -5 | 0.43 – 4.18 |
| 2031 | 2.36 | 12.66 | -5 | -0.11 – 4.83 |
| 2036 | 2.39 | 16.95 | -5 | -1.22 – 6 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.65 | 22.13 | 11.91 | 15.61 – 17.7 |
| 2028 | 14.06 | 23.55 | 5.83 | 12.03 – 16.09 |
| 2030 | 11.46 | 23.71 | 0.84 | 8.79 – 14.13 |
| 2035 | 4.96 | 22.29 | 0 | 1.69 – 8.23 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 574.8k | 601.9k | 549.6k | 557k – 592.6k |
| 2028 | 586.7k | 614.4k | 561k | 543.3k – 630.1k |
| 2030 | 598.7k | 626.9k | 572.4k | 530.7k – 666.6k |
| 2035 | 628.5k | 660.3k | 599k | 498.1k – 758.9k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.93 | 15 | -10 | 0.25 – 5.62 |
| 2028 | 5.02 | 15 | -10 | 0.2 – 9.83 |
| 2030 | 7.1 | 15 | -10 | 0.63 – 13.57 |
| 2035 | 12.31 | 15 | -10 | 1.99 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.9bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 3.1bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.25(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.05 | 0.2 – 0.3 |
| 2027 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.05 | 0.18 – 0.34 |
| 2029 | 0.26 | 0.52 | 0 | 0.14 – 0.38 |
| 2034 | 0.26 | 0.63 | 0 | 0.04 – 0.48 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.2bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.56 | 3.3 | 1.82 | 2.41 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 1.89 | 3.17 | 0.61 | 1.6 – 2.18 |
| 2030 | 1.22 | 2.87 | 0 | 0.87 – 1.57 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.34 | 0 | 0 – 0.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MLT · API docs
