Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Myanmar: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 65/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -2.29 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±5.2907 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Myanmar: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.85 | 6.16 | -4.45 | -0.25 – 1.95 |
| 2028 | 1.76 | 10.95 | -7.43 | -0.2 – 3.72 |
| 2030 | 2.66 | 14.53 | -9.2 | 0.03 – 5.3 |
| 2035 | 4.92 | 21.7 | -11.85 | 0.71 – 9.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed81.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.2bn | 100.1bn | 72.4bn | 82.1bn – 88.4bn |
| 2028 | 93.6bn | 119.3bn | 71.3bn | 86bn – 101.1bn |
| 2030 | 101.9bn | 135.1bn | 73.2bn | 89.8bn – 114bn |
| 2035 | 122.8bn | 169.7bn | 82.2bn | 97.3bn – 148.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.29 | 12 | -10 | -4.9 – 0.32 |
| 2028 | -2.72 | 12 | -10 | -7.31 – 1.88 |
| 2030 | -3.14 | 12 | -10 | -9.15 – 2.87 |
| 2035 | -4.2 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 4.62 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5k | 1.8k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2028 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.8k |
| 2030 | 1.8k | 2.4k | 1.3k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2035 | 2.1k | 3k | 1.4k | 1.7k – 2.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.98 | 66.5 | 39.52 | 51.19 – 56.77 |
| 2028 | 58.13 | 79.83 | 33.1 | 52 – 64.26 |
| 2030 | 62.28 | 90.3 | 29.96 | 52.99 – 71.58 |
| 2035 | 72.67 | 112.28 | 26.96 | 54.95 – 90.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.83(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.61 | 35.53 | 0.48 | 14.56 – 22.66 |
| 2028 | 7.97 | 37.27 | -5 | 1.09 – 14.85 |
| 2030 | -2.67 | 35.16 | -5 | -5 – 5.93 |
| 2035 | -5 | 48.51 | -5 | -5 – 7.66 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.7m | 57.3m | 52.3m | 53.1m – 56.4m |
| 2028 | 55.1m | 57.7m | 52.7m | 51.1m – 59.2m |
| 2030 | 55.5m | 58.1m | 53.1m | 49.2m – 61.8m |
| 2035 | 56.5m | 59.2m | 54m | 44.8m – 68.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.66 | 12.76 | -10 | -5.77 – -1.55 |
| 2028 | -5.86 | 15 | -10 | -9.7 – -2.02 |
| 2030 | -8.06 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.83 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.91 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9.2bn | 10.9bn | 7.6bn | 8.8bn – 9.6bn |
| 2026 | 10.2bn | 13.1bn | 7.4bn | 9.3bn – 11.2bn |
| 2028 | 11.2bn | 14.9bn | 7.5bn | 9.8bn – 12.7bn |
| 2033 | 13.7bn | 19bn | 8.5bn | 10.7bn – 16.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3.9 | 7.01 | 0.79 | 3.36 – 4.44 |
| 2022 | 4.62 | 10.01 | 0 | 3.58 – 5.67 |
| 2024 | 4.98 | 11.93 | 0 | 3.51 – 6.44 |
| 2029 | 5.26 | 15.09 | 0 | 2.91 – 7.61 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.3bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9.7bn | 11.4bn | 8bn | 9.3bn – 10.1bn |
| 2026 | 10.8bn | 13.7bn | 7.9bn | 9.8bn – 11.7bn |
| 2028 | 11.8bn | 15.6bn | 8.1bn | 10.3bn – 13.3bn |
| 2033 | 14.4bn | 19.7bn | 9.1bn | 11.3bn – 17.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.14 | 5.83 | 0.46 | 2.68 – 3.61 |
| 2028 | 3.34 | 7.99 | 0 | 2.47 – 4.21 |
| 2030 | 3.53 | 9.54 | 0 | 2.33 – 4.74 |
| 2035 | 4.02 | 12.51 | 0 | 2.08 – 5.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MMR · API docs
