Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (excluding high income): macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.9 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2103 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (excluding high income): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.71 | 32.79 | 19.58 | 24.29 – 27.14 |
| 2028 | 26.72 | 38.97 | 16.1 | 23.68 – 29.75 |
| 2030 | 27.72 | 43.54 | 14.01 | 23.24 – 32.2 |
| 2035 | 30.23 | 52.6 | 10.84 | 22.19 – 38.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1T | 2.5T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.2T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.8T | 1.7T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 3T | 1.6T | 2T – 2.5T |
| 2035 | 2.4T | 3.4T | 1.5T | 1.9T – 2.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9 | 8.3 | -3.66 | 0.8 – 2.99 |
| 2028 | 1.67 | 12 | -7.95 | -0.26 – 3.6 |
| 2030 | 1.45 | 12 | -10 | -1.05 – 3.95 |
| 2035 | 0.89 | 12 | -10 | -2.65 – 4.43 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8k | 3.3k | 2.4k | 2.7k – 2.9k |
| 2028 | 2.8k | 3.6k | 2.1k | 2.6k – 3k |
| 2030 | 2.8k | 3.8k | 1.9k | 2.4k – 3.1k |
| 2035 | 2.7k | 4.1k | 1.4k | 2.1k – 3.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.62 | 39.76 | 31.47 | 34.41 – 36.82 |
| 2028 | 36.94 | 44.12 | 29.77 | 34.07 – 39.81 |
| 2030 | 38.27 | 47.53 | 29 | 33.79 – 42.75 |
| 2035 | 41.58 | 54.69 | 28.48 | 32.92 – 50.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.36 | 7.19 | -2.81 | 1.26 – 3.47 |
| 2028 | 0.47 | 8.84 | -5 | -1.43 – 2.37 |
| 2030 | -1.42 | 9.38 | -5 | -3.93 – 1.09 |
| 2035 | -5 | 10.27 | -5 | -5 – -0.81 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.7 | 22.36 | 19.25 | 20.05 – 21.34 |
| 2028 | 20.98 | 23.87 | 18.48 | 19.43 – 22.53 |
| 2030 | 21.26 | 24.99 | 18.03 | 18.85 – 23.68 |
| 2035 | 21.97 | 27.24 | 17.4 | 17.41 – 26.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed753.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 750.5m | 786m | 717.6m | 727.3m – 773.8m |
| 2028 | 764m | 800.1m | 730.5m | 707.5m – 820.5m |
| 2030 | 777.4m | 814.1m | 743.3m | 689.1m – 865.7m |
| 2035 | 811m | 849.3m | 775.4m | 642.8m – 979.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.64 | 5.85 | 1.98 | 3.3 – 3.97 |
| 2028 | 4.6 | 8.43 | 1.73 | 3.9 – 5.3 |
| 2030 | 5.57 | 10.51 | 1.86 | 4.5 – 6.63 |
| 2035 | 7.97 | 14.96 | 2.74 | 5.83 – 10.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.99(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12.73 | 21.35 | 4.11 | 11.2 – 14.25 |
| 2027 | 15.99 | 30.92 | 1.06 | 12.93 – 19.04 |
| 2029 | 17.58 | 36 | 0 | 13.23 – 21.94 |
| 2034 | 18.86 | 36 | 0 | 11.67 – 26.05 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.44 | 9.05 | 7.84 | 8.18 – 8.71 |
| 2028 | 7.95 | 9 | 6.9 | 7.36 – 8.53 |
| 2030 | 7.45 | 8.8 | 6.09 | 6.6 – 8.29 |
| 2035 | 6.2 | 8.12 | 4.29 | 4.92 – 7.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MNA · API docs
