Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Montenegro: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.11 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±5.8515 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Montenegro: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-19.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -19.73 | -3.32 | -30 | -23.39 – -16.07 |
| 2029 | -20.39 | 8.03 | -30 | -27.17 – -13.61 |
| 2031 | -21.05 | 15.64 | -30 | -30 – -11.88 |
| 2036 | -22.7 | 29.18 | -30 | -30 – -8.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.66 | 62.05 | 22.13 | 36.96 – 44.37 |
| 2028 | 41.87 | 78.91 | 9.76 | 34.57 – 49.17 |
| 2030 | 43.07 | 90.89 | 1.62 | 32.79 – 53.35 |
| 2035 | 46.07 | 113.7 | 0 | 29.04 – 63.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.9bn | 12.2bn | 9.7bn | 10.5bn – 11.2bn |
| 2029 | 12.5bn | 14.9bn | 10.5bn | 11.6bn – 13.5bn |
| 2031 | 14.2bn | 17.2bn | 11.6bn | 12.6bn – 15.8bn |
| 2036 | 18.3bn | 22.6bn | 14.6bn | 14.5bn – 22.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.11 | 6.31 | -1.52 | 1.38 – 2.85 |
| 2029 | 0.38 | 7.64 | -5.91 | -0.88 – 1.64 |
| 2031 | -1.36 | 8.02 | -9.48 | -3.03 – 0.31 |
| 2036 | -5.7 | 7.56 | -10 | -8.82 – -2.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17.4k | 19.6k | 15.5k | 16.9k – 17.9k |
| 2029 | 20k | 23.8k | 16.8k | 18.6k – 21.5k |
| 2031 | 22.7k | 27.6k | 18.5k | 20.1k – 25.3k |
| 2036 | 29.3k | 36.2k | 23.4k | 23.2k – 35.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.36 | 86.32 | 30.4 | 55.4 – 65.32 |
| 2029 | 56.27 | 101.23 | 4.38 | 46.65 – 65.88 |
| 2031 | 52.18 | 110.23 | 0 | 39.07 – 65.28 |
| 2036 | 41.95 | 124.05 | 0 | 22.61 – 61.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.93 | 76.36 | 55.5 | 63.28 – 68.58 |
| 2028 | 66.37 | 84.44 | 48.3 | 60.42 – 72.32 |
| 2030 | 66.81 | 90.13 | 43.48 | 57.89 – 75.72 |
| 2035 | 67.91 | 100.89 | 34.92 | 51.99 – 83.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.02 | 14.54 | -5 | 0.42 – 5.62 |
| 2029 | 2.04 | 22 | -5 | -2.48 – 6.56 |
| 2031 | 1.06 | 26.83 | -5 | -4.73 – 6.86 |
| 2036 | -1.39 | 35.05 | -5 | -5 – 6.91 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22 | 26.81 | 17.84 | 20.97 – 23.04 |
| 2028 | 21.1 | 29.43 | 13.89 | 18.9 – 23.3 |
| 2030 | 20.2 | 30.95 | 10.88 | 17.05 – 23.35 |
| 2035 | 17.94 | 33.14 | 4.77 | 12.9 – 22.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed623.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 624.2k | 653.7k | 596.8k | 604.9k – 643.6k |
| 2029 | 625.2k | 654.7k | 597.7k | 578.9k – 671.4k |
| 2031 | 626.1k | 655.7k | 598.7k | 555k – 697.2k |
| 2036 | 628.5k | 658.2k | 600.9k | 498.1k – 758.9k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.52 | 15 | -10 | 1.43 – 9.6 |
| 2028 | 9.95 | 15 | -10 | 2.56 – 15 |
| 2030 | 14.39 | 15 | -10 | 4.31 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -0.03 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2bn | 2.9bn | 1.6bn | 2.1bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 3.5bn | 1.2bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 4bn | 1bn | 2.1bn – 2.9bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 5bn | 745.8m | 2.1bn – 3.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.12 | 7.1 | 1.14 | 3.6 – 4.64 |
| 2028 | 4.32 | 9.48 | 0 | 3.32 – 5.32 |
| 2030 | 4.42 | 11.08 | 0 | 3.05 – 5.79 |
| 2035 | 4.5 | 13.92 | 0 | 2.34 – 6.66 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2bn | 2.9bn | 1.6bn | 2.1bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 3.5bn | 1.2bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 4bn | 1bn | 2.1bn – 2.9bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 5bn | 745.8m | 2.1bn – 3.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.62 | 14.37 | 10.87 | 12.15 – 13.09 |
| 2028 | 10.72 | 13.75 | 7.69 | 9.74 – 11.7 |
| 2030 | 8.82 | 12.73 | 4.91 | 7.52 – 10.13 |
| 2035 | 4.07 | 9.6 | 0 | 2.57 – 5.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MNE · API docs
