Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Montenegro: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 59/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.23 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7693 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Montenegro: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-19.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -20.55 | -3.99 | -30 | -24.26 – -16.84 |
| 2028 | -20.44 | 8.24 | -30 | -27.28 – -13.61 |
| 2030 | -20.34 | 16.69 | -30 | -29.52 – -11.15 |
| 2035 | -20.08 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -6.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.66 | 62.05 | 22.13 | 36.96 – 44.37 |
| 2028 | 41.87 | 78.91 | 9.76 | 34.57 – 49.17 |
| 2030 | 43.07 | 90.89 | 1.62 | 32.79 – 53.35 |
| 2035 | 46.07 | 113.7 | 0 | 29.04 – 63.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.9bn | 11.3bn | 8.7bn | 9.6bn – 10.2bn |
| 2028 | 11.5bn | 13.9bn | 9.4bn | 10.7bn – 12.4bn |
| 2030 | 13.1bn | 16.3bn | 10.4bn | 11.6bn – 14.6bn |
| 2035 | 17.2bn | 21.6bn | 13.3bn | 13.6bn – 20.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.23 | 12 | -10 | -2.13 – 6.59 |
| 2028 | 1.17 | 12 | -10 | -6.38 – 8.72 |
| 2030 | 0.11 | 12 | -10 | -9.65 – 9.87 |
| 2035 | -2.54 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 11.55 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.8k | 18.1k | 13.9k | 15.3k – 16.4k |
| 2028 | 18.4k | 22.3k | 15.1k | 17.1k – 19.8k |
| 2030 | 21k | 26k | 16.7k | 18.6k – 23.4k |
| 2035 | 27.5k | 34.6k | 21.3k | 21.8k – 33.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.26 | 88.18 | 32.35 | 57.27 – 67.24 |
| 2028 | 59.77 | 104.67 | 7.96 | 50 – 69.55 |
| 2030 | 57.29 | 115.25 | 0 | 43.79 – 70.79 |
| 2035 | 51.08 | 133.05 | 0 | 30.29 – 71.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.93 | 76.36 | 55.5 | 63.28 – 68.58 |
| 2028 | 66.37 | 84.44 | 48.3 | 60.42 – 72.32 |
| 2030 | 66.81 | 90.13 | 43.48 | 57.89 – 75.72 |
| 2035 | 67.91 | 100.89 | 34.92 | 51.99 – 83.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.62 | 16.26 | -5 | 1.97 – 7.28 |
| 2028 | 5.41 | 25.57 | -5 | 0.68 – 10.14 |
| 2030 | 6.2 | 32.22 | -5 | -0.07 – 12.46 |
| 2035 | 8.17 | 44.97 | -5 | -1.3 – 17.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22 | 26.81 | 17.84 | 20.97 – 23.04 |
| 2028 | 21.1 | 29.43 | 13.89 | 18.9 – 23.3 |
| 2030 | 20.2 | 30.95 | 10.88 | 17.05 – 23.35 |
| 2035 | 17.94 | 33.14 | 4.77 | 12.9 – 22.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed623.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 623.2k | 652.6k | 595.8k | 603.9k – 642.5k |
| 2028 | 622.7k | 652.2k | 595.4k | 576.7k – 668.8k |
| 2030 | 622.3k | 651.7k | 595k | 551.7k – 693k |
| 2035 | 621.2k | 650.6k | 594k | 492.4k – 750.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.52 | 15 | -10 | 1.43 – 9.6 |
| 2028 | 9.95 | 15 | -10 | 2.56 – 15 |
| 2030 | 14.39 | 15 | -10 | 4.31 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -0.03 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2bn | 2.9bn | 1.6bn | 2.1bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 3.5bn | 1.2bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 4bn | 1bn | 2.1bn – 2.9bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 5bn | 745.8m | 2.1bn – 3.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.12 | 7.1 | 1.14 | 3.6 – 4.64 |
| 2028 | 4.32 | 9.48 | 0 | 3.32 – 5.32 |
| 2030 | 4.42 | 11.08 | 0 | 3.05 – 5.79 |
| 2035 | 4.5 | 13.92 | 0 | 2.34 – 6.66 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2bn | 2.9bn | 1.6bn | 2.1bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 3.5bn | 1.2bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 4bn | 1bn | 2.1bn – 2.9bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 5bn | 745.8m | 2.1bn – 3.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.62 | 14.37 | 10.87 | 12.15 – 13.09 |
| 2028 | 10.72 | 13.75 | 7.69 | 9.74 – 11.7 |
| 2030 | 8.82 | 12.73 | 4.91 | 7.52 – 10.13 |
| 2035 | 4.07 | 9.6 | 0 | 2.57 – 5.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MNE · API docs
