Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mongolia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.24 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+9% skill vs naive; realized ±1.0372 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mongolia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.21 | 9.21 | -23.63 | -10.68 – -3.75 |
| 2028 | -4.84 | 23.6 | -30 | -10.88 – 1.19 |
| 2030 | -2.47 | 30 | -30 | -10.16 – 5.22 |
| 2035 | 3.46 | 30 | -30 | -7.69 – 14.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.2 | 81.85 | 60.11 | 67.41 – 72.99 |
| 2028 | 74.47 | 94.64 | 56.98 | 68.01 – 80.92 |
| 2030 | 78.73 | 104.78 | 56.16 | 68.71 – 88.75 |
| 2035 | 89.39 | 126.23 | 57.47 | 69.83 – 108.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.3bn | 30.2bn | 24.9bn | 26.5bn – 28.2bn |
| 2028 | 32.2bn | 37.1bn | 28bn | 29.8bn – 34.6bn |
| 2030 | 37.1bn | 43.4bn | 31.6bn | 32.9bn – 41.3bn |
| 2035 | 49.2bn | 58.1bn | 41.5bn | 39bn – 59.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.24 | 12 | 2.23 | 6.16 – 8.32 |
| 2028 | 8.4 | 12 | -0.28 | 6.32 – 10.47 |
| 2030 | 9.55 | 12 | -1.65 | 6.64 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.84 | 7.03 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.6k | 8.4k | 6.9k | 7.4k – 7.8k |
| 2028 | 8.8k | 10.3k | 7.6k | 8.2k – 9.5k |
| 2030 | 10.1k | 11.9k | 8.5k | 8.9k – 11.2k |
| 2035 | 13.1k | 15.7k | 10.9k | 10.4k – 15.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.3 | 59.59 | 18.05 | 36.69 – 43.92 |
| 2028 | 30.91 | 64.31 | 0 | 24.29 – 37.53 |
| 2030 | 21.52 | 64.64 | 0 | 13.16 – 29.87 |
| 2035 | 0 | 60.98 | 0 | 0 – 9.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.98 | 76.44 | 49.52 | 59.91 – 66.05 |
| 2028 | 63.67 | 86.99 | 40.35 | 57.05 – 70.3 |
| 2030 | 64.36 | 94.46 | 34.26 | 54.6 – 74.11 |
| 2035 | 66.08 | 108.65 | 23.51 | 48.99 – 83.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 19.75 | -0.44 | 7.68 – 12.32 |
| 2028 | 13.37 | 30.25 | -4.72 | 8.99 – 17.75 |
| 2030 | 16.74 | 38.53 | -5 | 10.57 – 22.91 |
| 2035 | 25.17 | 50 | -5 | 14.31 – 36.03 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.82 | 34.18 | 22.3 | 26.46 – 29.17 |
| 2028 | 27.56 | 38.58 | 18.01 | 24.66 – 30.46 |
| 2030 | 27.3 | 41.53 | 14.97 | 23.09 – 31.52 |
| 2035 | 26.66 | 46.78 | 9.22 | 19.52 – 33.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6m | 3.7m | 3.4m | 3.4m – 3.7m |
| 2028 | 3.6m | 3.8m | 3.4m | 3.3m – 3.9m |
| 2030 | 3.7m | 3.8m | 3.5m | 3.2m – 4.1m |
| 2035 | 3.8m | 4m | 3.6m | 3m – 4.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.03 | 15 | -4 | 5.08 – 8.98 |
| 2028 | 10.1 | 15 | -9 | 6.43 – 13.77 |
| 2030 | 13.18 | 15 | -10 | 8.01 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.79 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.5bn | 7.8bn | 5.1bn | 6.2bn – 6.8bn |
| 2028 | 7.9bn | 10.2bn | 5.5bn | 7.1bn – 8.6bn |
| 2030 | 9.3bn | 12.3bn | 6.3bn | 8.1bn – 10.5bn |
| 2035 | 12.7bn | 17bn | 8.5bn | 10.1bn – 15.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.11 | 6.43 | 1.8 | 3.69 – 4.53 |
| 2028 | 4.07 | 8.07 | 0.06 | 3.26 – 4.88 |
| 2030 | 4.05 | 9.22 | 0 | 2.93 – 5.16 |
| 2035 | 4.03 | 11.34 | 0 | 2.26 – 5.79 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7bn | 9.3bn | 6.1bn | 7.3bn – 8.1bn |
| 2028 | 9.3bn | 12.2bn | 6.5bn | 8.5bn – 10.2bn |
| 2030 | 11bn | 14.7bn | 7.3bn | 9.6bn – 12.4bn |
| 2035 | 15.1bn | 20.3bn | 10bn | 11.9bn – 18.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.81 | 6.98 | 2.64 | 4.4 – 5.22 |
| 2028 | 3.96 | 7.72 | 0.2 | 3.2 – 4.73 |
| 2030 | 3.12 | 7.97 | 0 | 2.12 – 4.11 |
| 2035 | 1 | 7.86 | 0 | 0 – 2.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MNG · API docs
