Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Northern Mariana Islands: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 5/100); the economy is in expansion; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 12 for 2023.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.90, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2023: supportive (projected sentiment +0.90) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+17% skill vs naive; realized ±19.0066 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Northern Mariana Islands: forward projections across 6 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed22.26(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13.75 | 46.89 | 0 | 8.79 – 18.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 57.4 | 0 | 0 – 8.25 |
| 2027 | 0 | 74.11 | 0 | 0 – 10.67 |
| 2032 | 0 | 104.81 | 0 | 0 – 15.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.1bn | 1.6bn | 627.6m | 995.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2025 | 1bn | 1.9bn | 252.8m | 871m – 1.2bn |
| 2027 | 978.8m | 2.1bn | 0 | 763.3m – 1.2bn |
| 2032 | 859.4m | 2.5bn | 0 | 527.8m – 1.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.64(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.57 – 12 |
| 2025 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -4.57 – 12 |
| 2027 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.61 – 12 |
| 2032 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.8k(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23.6k | 34k | 14.5k | 22k – 25.2k |
| 2025 | 23.3k | 41.3k | 7.6k | 20k – 26.5k |
| 2027 | 22.9k | 46.3k | 2.7k | 18.3k – 27.5k |
| 2032 | 22.1k | 55.1k | 0 | 14.7k – 29.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.89(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 70.62 | 88.89 | 52.35 | 66.69 – 74.55 |
| 2025 | 70.07 | 101.71 | 38.43 | 61.86 – 78.28 |
| 2027 | 69.52 | 110.36 | 28.68 | 57.71 – 81.33 |
| 2032 | 68.15 | 125.91 | 10.39 | 48.4 – 87.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.8k | 45.9k | 41.9k | 42.4k – 45.1k |
| 2028 | 43k | 45k | 41.1k | 39.8k – 46.2k |
| 2030 | 42.2k | 44.2k | 40.3k | 37.4k – 47k |
| 2035 | 40.1k | 42k | 38.4k | 31.8k – 48.5k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MNP · API docs
