Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mozambique: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 68/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -2.2 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.36, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±2.6992 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mozambique: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-43(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.2 | 11.02 | -30 | -17.14 – -7.27 |
| 2028 | -8.21 | 30 | -30 | -16.81 – 0.4 |
| 2030 | -4.21 | 30 | -30 | -15.15 – 6.72 |
| 2035 | 5.78 | 30 | -30 | -10.13 – 21.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.94 | 54.78 | 30.82 | 39.44 – 44.45 |
| 2028 | 43.07 | 65.3 | 23.8 | 37.83 – 48.31 |
| 2030 | 44.19 | 72.89 | 19.32 | 36.56 – 51.83 |
| 2035 | 47.01 | 87.59 | 11.84 | 33.69 – 60.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.3bn | 26.2bn | 20.9bn | 22.6bn – 24.1bn |
| 2028 | 25.9bn | 30.8bn | 21.6bn | 23.9bn – 27.8bn |
| 2030 | 28.4bn | 34.8bn | 22.8bn | 25.2bn – 31.6bn |
| 2035 | 34.7bn | 43.7bn | 26.8bn | 27.5bn – 41.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.2 | 3.47 | -7.12 | -3.18 – -1.22 |
| 2028 | -5.85 | 3.98 | -10 | -7.77 – -3.93 |
| 2030 | -9.5 | 3.18 | -10 | -10 – -6.63 |
| 2035 | -10 | 7.94 | -10 | -10 – -5.41 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed626.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 643.3 | 731.94 | 566.47 | 622.45 – 664.14 |
| 2028 | 684.29 | 837.83 | 551.22 | 633.17 – 735.41 |
| 2030 | 725.28 | 923.5 | 553.49 | 642.93 – 807.63 |
| 2035 | 827.76 | 1.1k | 584.82 | 656.05 – 999.47 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed106.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.26 | 122.86 | 74.17 | 95.17 – 105.34 |
| 2028 | 95.77 | 134.92 | 50.58 | 85.14 – 106.39 |
| 2030 | 91.28 | 141.83 | 32.94 | 76.2 – 106.36 |
| 2035 | 80.05 | 151.55 | 0 | 56.24 – 103.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.77 | 75.47 | 30.07 | 48.45 – 57.09 |
| 2028 | 46.86 | 86.18 | 7.54 | 38.6 – 55.13 |
| 2030 | 40.96 | 91.72 | 0 | 29.91 – 52 |
| 2035 | 26.19 | 97.98 | 0 | 11.02 – 41.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.81 | 10.74 | -1.55 | 3.41 – 6.2 |
| 2028 | 5.21 | 15.49 | -5 | 2.68 – 7.74 |
| 2030 | 5.62 | 18.88 | -5 | 2.23 – 9.01 |
| 2035 | 6.63 | 25.39 | -5 | 1.41 – 11.85 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.4m | 37m | 33.8m | 34.3m – 36.5m |
| 2028 | 36.5m | 38.2m | 34.9m | 33.8m – 39.2m |
| 2030 | 37.6m | 39.3m | 35.9m | 33.3m – 41.8m |
| 2035 | 40.3m | 42.2m | 38.6m | 32m – 48.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.74 | 0.26 | -8.5 | -5.45 – -4.04 |
| 2028 | -7.04 | 1.64 | -10 | -8.46 – -5.61 |
| 2030 | -9.33 | 1.87 | -10 | -10 – -7.18 |
| 2035 | -10 | 5.83 | -10 | -10 – -6.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5bn | 4.6bn | 2.5bn | 3.3bn – 3.8bn |
| 2027 | 3.6bn | 5.4bn | 1.8bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 6bn | 1.4bn | 3.1bn – 4.3bn |
| 2034 | 3.9bn | 7.1bn | 655.9m | 2.8bn – 5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5 | 6.06 | 0.94 | 3.05 – 3.94 |
| 2027 | 3.56 | 8 | 0 | 2.71 – 4.41 |
| 2029 | 3.59 | 9.32 | 0 | 2.43 – 4.76 |
| 2034 | 3.62 | 11.72 | 0 | 1.8 – 5.44 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9bn | 4.9bn | 2.8bn | 3.7bn – 4.1bn |
| 2027 | 4bn | 5.8bn | 2.2bn | 3.6bn – 4.5bn |
| 2029 | 4.2bn | 6.5bn | 1.8bn | 3.5bn – 4.9bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 7.8bn | 1.2bn | 3.3bn – 5.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.96 | 8.05 | 5.87 | 6.68 – 7.24 |
| 2028 | 7.63 | 9.52 | 5.74 | 6.97 – 8.28 |
| 2030 | 8.3 | 10.74 | 5.86 | 7.26 – 9.33 |
| 2035 | 9.97 | 13.42 | 6.52 | 7.84 – 12.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MOZ · API docs
