Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mozambique: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 60/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -0.2 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±5.3301 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mozambique: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-43(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -30 | -0.72 | -30 | -30 – -23.54 |
| 2029 | -30 | 20.72 | -30 | -30 – -18.21 |
| 2031 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -14.24 |
| 2036 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -6.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.94 | 54.78 | 30.82 | 39.44 – 44.45 |
| 2028 | 43.07 | 65.3 | 23.8 | 37.83 – 48.31 |
| 2030 | 44.19 | 72.89 | 19.32 | 36.56 – 51.83 |
| 2035 | 47.01 | 87.59 | 11.84 | 33.69 – 60.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24bn | 26.8bn | 21.5bn | 23.2bn – 24.7bn |
| 2029 | 25.9bn | 30.8bn | 21.6bn | 24bn – 27.8bn |
| 2031 | 27.8bn | 34.1bn | 22.3bn | 24.6bn – 31bn |
| 2036 | 32.6bn | 41.5bn | 24.8bn | 25.8bn – 39.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.2 | 4.4 | -4.19 | -0.98 – 0.58 |
| 2029 | -1.82 | 6.15 | -8.72 | -3.23 – -0.4 |
| 2031 | -3.44 | 6.85 | -10 | -5.43 – -1.45 |
| 2036 | -7.48 | 7.07 | -10 | -10 – -3.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed626.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 638.97 | 727.3 | 562.42 | 618.23 – 659.71 |
| 2029 | 659.89 | 812.88 | 527.3 | 610.01 – 709.78 |
| 2031 | 680.82 | 878.33 | 509.64 | 602.84 – 758.79 |
| 2036 | 733.12 | 1k | 491.05 | 581.05 – 885.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed106.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 105.33 | 124.67 | 83.03 | 100.68 – 109.99 |
| 2029 | 103.8 | 137.29 | 65.17 | 93.67 – 113.94 |
| 2031 | 102.27 | 145.5 | 52.4 | 87.44 – 117.1 |
| 2036 | 98.45 | 159.58 | 27.91 | 73.29 – 123.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.77 | 75.47 | 30.07 | 48.45 – 57.09 |
| 2028 | 46.86 | 86.18 | 7.54 | 38.6 – 55.13 |
| 2030 | 40.96 | 91.72 | 0 | 29.91 – 52 |
| 2035 | 26.19 | 97.98 | 0 | 11.02 – 41.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.48 | 9.74 | -1.14 | 3.25 – 5.72 |
| 2029 | 4.53 | 13.63 | -5 | 2.29 – 6.76 |
| 2031 | 4.57 | 16.32 | -5 | 1.6 – 7.54 |
| 2036 | 4.68 | 21.3 | -5 | 0.25 – 9.12 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.6m | 38.3m | 35m | 35.4m – 37.7m |
| 2029 | 37.9m | 39.7m | 36.2m | 35.1m – 40.7m |
| 2031 | 39.2m | 41.1m | 37.5m | 34.8m – 43.7m |
| 2036 | 42.5m | 44.5m | 40.6m | 33.7m – 51.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.74 | 0.26 | -8.5 | -5.45 – -4.04 |
| 2028 | -7.04 | 1.64 | -10 | -8.46 – -5.61 |
| 2030 | -9.33 | 1.87 | -10 | -10 – -7.18 |
| 2035 | -10 | 5.83 | -10 | -10 – -6.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5bn | 4.6bn | 2.5bn | 3.3bn – 3.8bn |
| 2027 | 3.6bn | 5.4bn | 1.8bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 6bn | 1.4bn | 3.1bn – 4.3bn |
| 2034 | 3.9bn | 7.1bn | 655.9m | 2.8bn – 5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5 | 6.06 | 0.94 | 3.05 – 3.94 |
| 2027 | 3.56 | 8 | 0 | 2.71 – 4.41 |
| 2029 | 3.59 | 9.32 | 0 | 2.43 – 4.76 |
| 2034 | 3.62 | 11.72 | 0 | 1.8 – 5.44 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9bn | 4.9bn | 2.8bn | 3.7bn – 4.1bn |
| 2027 | 4bn | 5.8bn | 2.2bn | 3.6bn – 4.5bn |
| 2029 | 4.2bn | 6.5bn | 1.8bn | 3.5bn – 4.9bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 7.8bn | 1.2bn | 3.3bn – 5.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.96 | 8.05 | 5.87 | 6.68 – 7.24 |
| 2028 | 7.63 | 9.52 | 5.74 | 6.97 – 8.28 |
| 2030 | 8.3 | 10.74 | 5.86 | 7.26 – 9.33 |
| 2035 | 9.97 | 13.42 | 6.52 | 7.84 – 12.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MOZ · API docs
