Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mauritius: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.83 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±4.6441 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mauritius: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.57 | 1.33 | -14.47 | -8.29 – -4.86 |
| 2029 | -5.92 | 7.76 | -19.61 | -9 – -2.84 |
| 2031 | -5.27 | 12.4 | -22.94 | -9.3 – -1.24 |
| 2036 | -3.64 | 21.35 | -28.62 | -9.32 – 2.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.54 | 74.58 | 59.58 | 64.33 – 68.75 |
| 2028 | 69.55 | 83.47 | 57.49 | 64.22 – 74.88 |
| 2030 | 72.56 | 90.53 | 56.98 | 64.19 – 80.93 |
| 2035 | 80.09 | 105.5 | 58.06 | 63.47 – 96.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17.8bn | 20.9bn | 15.2bn | 17.2bn – 18.5bn |
| 2029 | 19.5bn | 24.8bn | 15bn | 18bn – 21.1bn |
| 2031 | 21.3bn | 28.1bn | 15.4bn | 18.8bn – 23.8bn |
| 2036 | 25.6bn | 35.3bn | 17.2bn | 20.3bn – 30.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.83 | 8.89 | -2.43 | 1.77 – 3.88 |
| 2029 | 1.54 | 12 | -7.56 | -0.28 – 3.37 |
| 2031 | 0.26 | 12 | -10 | -2.08 – 2.6 |
| 2036 | -2.96 | 12 | -10 | -6.63 – 0.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.4k | 16.8k | 12.2k | 13.9k – 14.9k |
| 2029 | 15.8k | 20.1k | 12.1k | 14.6k – 17.1k |
| 2031 | 17.3k | 22.8k | 12.5k | 15.2k – 19.3k |
| 2036 | 20.9k | 28.6k | 14.1k | 16.5k – 25.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 88.8 | 101.63 | 74.01 | 85.41 – 92.2 |
| 2029 | 93.41 | 115.62 | 67.78 | 85.51 – 101.31 |
| 2031 | 98.02 | 126.69 | 64.93 | 85.77 – 110.27 |
| 2036 | 109.54 | 150.09 | 62.74 | 85.77 – 133.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.89 | 85.24 | 68.55 | 74.39 – 79.4 |
| 2028 | 80.87 | 95.32 | 66.42 | 74.77 – 86.96 |
| 2030 | 84.84 | 103.49 | 66.18 | 75.2 – 94.48 |
| 2035 | 94.77 | 121.15 | 68.39 | 75.11 – 114.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.81 | 11.47 | -4.4 | 2.05 – 5.57 |
| 2029 | 3.85 | 17.12 | -5 | 0.72 – 6.97 |
| 2031 | 3.89 | 21.02 | -5 | -0.22 – 7.99 |
| 2036 | 3.98 | 28.2 | -5 | -2.03 – 9.98 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.93 | 22.76 | 17.48 | 19.21 – 20.65 |
| 2028 | 20.39 | 25.28 | 16.14 | 18.71 – 22.06 |
| 2030 | 20.84 | 27.16 | 15.36 | 18.27 – 23.41 |
| 2035 | 21.98 | 30.92 | 14.23 | 17.18 – 26.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.2m – 1.3m |
| 2029 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.1m – 1.3m |
| 2031 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.1m – 1.4m |
| 2036 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 964.1k – 1.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.28 | 15 | -8.71 | 2.04 – 6.51 |
| 2028 | 6.49 | 15 | -10 | 2.43 – 10.55 |
| 2030 | 8.7 | 15 | -10 | 3.17 – 14.24 |
| 2035 | 14.23 | 15 | -10 | 5.11 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.9bn | 10.5bn | 7.3bn | 8.5bn – 9.3bn |
| 2028 | 9.8bn | 12.6bn | 7bn | 8.9bn – 10.7bn |
| 2030 | 10.6bn | 14.3bn | 7bn | 9.2bn – 12.1bn |
| 2035 | 12.8bn | 18bn | 7.7bn | 10bn – 15.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.16(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.1 | 7.34 | 2.86 | 4.68 – 5.52 |
| 2027 | 5.03 | 8.9 | 1.16 | 4.19 – 5.86 |
| 2029 | 4.99 | 9.99 | 0 | 3.83 – 6.16 |
| 2034 | 4.96 | 12.03 | 0 | 3.09 – 6.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8bn | 12.7bn | 9bn | 10.4bn – 11.3bn |
| 2028 | 12.2bn | 15.4bn | 9bn | 11.1bn – 13.3bn |
| 2030 | 13.6bn | 17.7bn | 9.5bn | 11.9bn – 15.3bn |
| 2035 | 17bn | 22.8bn | 11.2bn | 13.4bn – 20.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.58 | 6.8 | 4.36 | 5.3 – 5.86 |
| 2029 | 4.94 | 7.05 | 2.83 | 4.38 – 5.5 |
| 2031 | 4.3 | 7.03 | 1.58 | 3.54 – 5.06 |
| 2036 | 2.71 | 6.56 | 0 | 1.68 – 3.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MUS · API docs
