Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Mauritius: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.54 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+2% skill vs naive; realized ±0.8446 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Mauritius: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-7.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.17 | -0.57 | -13.76 | -8.63 – -5.7 |
| 2028 | -7.5 | 3.93 | -18.92 | -10.19 – -4.8 |
| 2030 | -7.83 | 6.93 | -22.58 | -11.46 – -4.19 |
| 2035 | -8.65 | 12.21 | -29.52 | -14.3 – -3.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.54 | 74.58 | 59.58 | 64.33 – 68.75 |
| 2028 | 69.55 | 83.47 | 57.49 | 64.22 – 74.88 |
| 2030 | 72.56 | 90.53 | 56.98 | 64.19 – 80.93 |
| 2035 | 80.09 | 105.5 | 58.06 | 63.47 – 96.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.7bn | 19.8bn | 14.1bn | 16.1bn – 17.4bn |
| 2028 | 18.2bn | 23.4bn | 13.6bn | 16.7bn – 19.7bn |
| 2030 | 19.6bn | 26.4bn | 13.7bn | 17.2bn – 22bn |
| 2035 | 23.2bn | 32.8bn | 14.9bn | 18.4bn – 28.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.54 | 12 | -10 | 0.83 – 6.26 |
| 2028 | 4.49 | 12 | -10 | -0.33 – 9.32 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 12 | -10 | -0.94 – 11.83 |
| 2035 | 7.82 | 12 | -10 | -1.85 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5k | 15.9k | 11.4k | 13k – 14k |
| 2028 | 14.7k | 18.9k | 11k | 13.5k – 15.9k |
| 2030 | 15.9k | 21.4k | 11.2k | 14k – 17.8k |
| 2035 | 19k | 26.7k | 12.2k | 15k – 22.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed87.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 89.72 | 102.67 | 74.77 | 86.29 – 93.14 |
| 2028 | 95.55 | 117.99 | 69.66 | 87.51 – 103.59 |
| 2030 | 101.38 | 130.35 | 67.95 | 88.81 – 113.95 |
| 2035 | 115.96 | 156.92 | 68.69 | 91.1 – 140.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.89 | 85.24 | 68.55 | 74.39 – 79.4 |
| 2028 | 80.87 | 95.32 | 66.42 | 74.77 – 86.96 |
| 2030 | 84.84 | 103.49 | 66.18 | 75.2 – 94.48 |
| 2035 | 94.77 | 121.15 | 68.39 | 75.11 – 114.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.05 | 11.82 | -4.26 | 2.27 – 5.84 |
| 2028 | 4.15 | 17.59 | -5 | 0.97 – 7.33 |
| 2030 | 4.25 | 21.6 | -5 | 0.06 – 8.43 |
| 2035 | 4.49 | 29.03 | -5 | -1.67 – 10.65 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.93 | 22.76 | 17.48 | 19.21 – 20.65 |
| 2028 | 20.39 | 25.28 | 16.14 | 18.71 – 22.06 |
| 2030 | 20.84 | 27.16 | 15.36 | 18.27 – 23.41 |
| 2035 | 21.98 | 30.92 | 14.23 | 17.18 – 26.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.2m – 1.3m |
| 2028 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.2m – 1.3m |
| 2030 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.1m – 1.4m |
| 2035 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 979.2k – 1.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.28 | 15 | -8.71 | 2.04 – 6.51 |
| 2028 | 6.49 | 15 | -10 | 2.43 – 10.55 |
| 2030 | 8.7 | 15 | -10 | 3.17 – 14.24 |
| 2035 | 14.23 | 15 | -10 | 5.11 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.9bn | 10.5bn | 7.3bn | 8.5bn – 9.3bn |
| 2028 | 9.8bn | 12.6bn | 7bn | 8.9bn – 10.7bn |
| 2030 | 10.6bn | 14.3bn | 7bn | 9.2bn – 12.1bn |
| 2035 | 12.8bn | 18bn | 7.7bn | 10bn – 15.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.16(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.1 | 7.34 | 2.86 | 4.68 – 5.52 |
| 2027 | 5.03 | 8.9 | 1.16 | 4.19 – 5.86 |
| 2029 | 4.99 | 9.99 | 0 | 3.83 – 6.16 |
| 2034 | 4.96 | 12.03 | 0 | 3.09 – 6.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8bn | 12.7bn | 9bn | 10.4bn – 11.3bn |
| 2028 | 12.2bn | 15.4bn | 9bn | 11.1bn – 13.3bn |
| 2030 | 13.6bn | 17.7bn | 9.5bn | 11.9bn – 15.3bn |
| 2035 | 17bn | 22.8bn | 11.2bn | 13.4bn – 20.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 6.09 | 3.91 | 4.75 – 5.25 |
| 2028 | 3.73 | 5.63 | 1.84 | 3.26 – 4.2 |
| 2030 | 2.46 | 4.91 | 0.02 | 1.89 – 3.03 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.46 | 0 | 0 – 0.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MUS · API docs
