Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Malawi: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.85 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3527 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Malawi: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-15.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -17.32 | -13.32 | -21.31 | -18.41 – -16.22 |
| 2028 | -18.95 | -12.03 | -25.87 | -21.27 – -16.62 |
| 2030 | -20.58 | -11.64 | -29.51 | -24.05 – -17.11 |
| 2035 | -24.65 | -12.02 | -30 | -30 – -18.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.45 | 13.05 | 8.2 | 9.92 – 10.99 |
| 2028 | 10.07 | 14.57 | 6.16 | 8.94 – 11.19 |
| 2030 | 9.68 | 15.49 | 4.64 | 8.07 – 11.28 |
| 2035 | 8.7 | 16.93 | 1.58 | 6.14 – 11.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.3bn | 18.5bn | 12.5bn | 14.6bn – 15.9bn |
| 2028 | 16.3bn | 21.9bn | 11.4bn | 14.9bn – 17.8bn |
| 2030 | 17.4bn | 24.6bn | 11.1bn | 15.1bn – 19.6bn |
| 2035 | 20bn | 30.2bn | 11.1bn | 15.6bn – 24.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.85 | 6.85 | -2.49 | 0.98 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 1.76 | 10.42 | -5.74 | 0.23 – 3.29 |
| 2030 | 1.68 | 12 | -8.01 | -0.32 – 3.68 |
| 2035 | 1.47 | 12 | -10 | -1.4 – 4.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed671.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 675.77 | 825.9 | 545.66 | 647.09 – 704.46 |
| 2028 | 693.86 | 953.88 | 468.5 | 629.6 – 758.12 |
| 2030 | 711.94 | 1k | 421.01 | 615.02 – 808.86 |
| 2035 | 757.15 | 1.2k | 345.71 | 579.49 – 934.81 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.77 | 97.36 | 70.24 | 81.47 – 88.06 |
| 2028 | 97.5 | 119.31 | 72.33 | 89.46 – 105.54 |
| 2030 | 110.23 | 138.39 | 77.74 | 97.08 – 123.38 |
| 2035 | 142.07 | 181.89 | 96.12 | 112.6 – 171.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.5 | 30.73 | 26.27 | 27.62 – 29.38 |
| 2028 | 28 | 31.85 | 24.14 | 25.92 – 30.07 |
| 2030 | 27.49 | 32.47 | 22.51 | 24.37 – 30.61 |
| 2035 | 26.23 | 33.28 | 19.19 | 20.79 – 31.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.23 | 37.17 | 14.52 | 23.39 – 29.08 |
| 2028 | 20.9 | 39.84 | 0.61 | 15.7 – 26.1 |
| 2030 | 15.57 | 40.02 | -5 | 8.9 – 22.23 |
| 2035 | 2.23 | 36.81 | -5 | -5 – 10.26 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.1m | 23.1m | 21.1m | 21.4m – 22.8m |
| 2028 | 22.7m | 23.8m | 21.7m | 21m – 24.4m |
| 2030 | 23.3m | 24.4m | 22.3m | 20.7m – 26m |
| 2035 | 24.8m | 26m | 23.8m | 19.7m – 30m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.76 | 15 | -10 | -3.66 – 2.14 |
| 2028 | -0.16 | 15 | -10 | -5.2 – 4.89 |
| 2030 | 0.44 | 15 | -10 | -6.09 – 6.97 |
| 2035 | 1.95 | 15 | -10 | -7.49 – 11.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.5m(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 585.8m | 860.1m | 311.6m | 534.5m – 637.2m |
| 2023 | 560.7m | 1bn | 85.6m | 461m – 660.3m |
| 2025 | 535.5m | 1.1bn | 0 | 398.8m – 672.2m |
| 2030 | 472.5m | 1.3bn | 0 | 264.2m – 680.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2.01 | 2.96 | 1.05 | 1.83 – 2.19 |
| 2023 | 2.12 | 3.77 | 0.46 | 1.76 – 2.47 |
| 2025 | 2.17 | 4.31 | 0.03 | 1.67 – 2.67 |
| 2030 | 2.21 | 5.24 | 0 | 1.4 – 3.03 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.5m(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 585.2m | 858m | 312.4m | 534.1m – 636.3m |
| 2023 | 558.2m | 1bn | 85.8m | 459.1m – 657.4m |
| 2025 | 531.3m | 1.1bn | 0 | 395.4m – 667.1m |
| 2030 | 463.9m | 1.3bn | 0 | 257.6m – 670.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.93 | 5.43 | 4.43 | 4.77 – 5.08 |
| 2028 | 4.64 | 5.5 | 3.78 | 4.28 – 4.99 |
| 2030 | 4.35 | 5.46 | 3.24 | 3.83 – 4.87 |
| 2035 | 3.63 | 5.2 | 2.05 | 2.81 – 4.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MWI · API docs
