Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Malaysia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 22/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.16 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±1.4554 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Malaysia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.31 | 3.3 | -0.69 | 0.88 – 1.73 |
| 2028 | 0.72 | 4.17 | -2.74 | -0.04 – 1.47 |
| 2030 | 0.13 | 4.59 | -4.33 | -0.86 – 1.12 |
| 2035 | -1.34 | 4.97 | -7.65 | -2.84 – 0.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.86 | 83.55 | 61.72 | 69.04 – 74.68 |
| 2028 | 73.64 | 93.89 | 56.08 | 67.21 – 80.06 |
| 2030 | 75.41 | 101.56 | 52.75 | 65.65 – 85.18 |
| 2035 | 79.86 | 116.84 | 47.81 | 61.8 – 97.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed472.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 486.5bn | 539.8bn | 440.3bn | 471.4bn – 501.6bn |
| 2028 | 524.7bn | 617bn | 444.8bn | 485.9bn – 563.6bn |
| 2030 | 563bn | 682.1bn | 459.7bn | 499bn – 626.9bn |
| 2035 | 658.5bn | 827bn | 512.5bn | 521.9bn – 795.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.16 | 12 | -2.75 | 4.34 – 7.97 |
| 2028 | 8.32 | 12 | -7.1 | 4.95 – 11.69 |
| 2030 | 10.48 | 12 | -9.43 | 5.82 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.66 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.4k | 14.9k | 12.1k | 13k – 13.8k |
| 2028 | 14.2k | 16.9k | 11.9k | 13.1k – 15.2k |
| 2030 | 15k | 18.4k | 12k | 13.3k – 16.7k |
| 2035 | 17k | 21.8k | 12.7k | 13.4k – 20.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.76 | 79.61 | 64.84 | 70.5 – 75.01 |
| 2028 | 76.87 | 88.74 | 63.16 | 71.18 – 82.55 |
| 2030 | 80.98 | 96.31 | 63.28 | 71.78 – 90.17 |
| 2035 | 91.25 | 112.93 | 66.23 | 72.32 – 110.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.6 | 76.1 | 57.1 | 64.08 – 69.12 |
| 2028 | 68.96 | 85.41 | 52.5 | 63.13 – 74.78 |
| 2030 | 71.31 | 92.55 | 50.06 | 62.35 – 80.26 |
| 2035 | 77.18 | 107.23 | 47.14 | 60.24 – 94.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.27 | 4.67 | -2.38 | 0.49 – 2.04 |
| 2028 | 0.63 | 6.52 | -5 | -0.72 – 1.99 |
| 2030 | -0 | 7.6 | -5 | -1.77 – 1.76 |
| 2035 | -1.59 | 9.17 | -5 | -4.23 – 1.05 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.68 | 24.4 | 19.33 | 20.95 – 22.42 |
| 2028 | 22.45 | 27.16 | 18.37 | 20.7 – 24.2 |
| 2030 | 23.22 | 29.29 | 17.95 | 20.49 – 25.94 |
| 2035 | 25.14 | 33.73 | 17.69 | 19.89 – 30.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.9m | 37.6m | 34.3m | 34.8m – 37m |
| 2028 | 36.3m | 38m | 34.7m | 33.6m – 39m |
| 2030 | 36.8m | 38.5m | 35.2m | 32.6m – 41m |
| 2035 | 37.9m | 39.7m | 36.3m | 30.1m – 45.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.22 | 13.75 | -4.69 | 1.85 – 4.59 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 15 | -10 | 1.02 – 5.91 |
| 2030 | 3.71 | 15 | -10 | 0.47 – 6.96 |
| 2035 | 4.34 | 15 | -10 | -0.52 – 9.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 122.1bn | 129.8bn | 114.4bn | 118.3bn – 125.9bn |
| 2028 | 127.2bn | 140.5bn | 113.8bn | 117.8bn – 136.6bn |
| 2030 | 132.2bn | 149.5bn | 115bn | 117.2bn – 147.3bn |
| 2035 | 144.9bn | 169.3bn | 120.6bn | 114.9bn – 175bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.45(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.67 | 5.91 | 3.43 | 4.41 – 4.94 |
| 2027 | 4.93 | 7.09 | 2.78 | 4.37 – 5.5 |
| 2029 | 5.06 | 7.84 | 2.28 | 4.23 – 5.89 |
| 2034 | 5.16 | 9.09 | 1.23 | 3.74 – 6.59 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 128.2bn | 136.5bn | 119.8bn | 124.2bn – 132.1bn |
| 2028 | 134.8bn | 149.2bn | 120.4bn | 124.8bn – 144.8bn |
| 2030 | 141.4bn | 160bn | 122.8bn | 125.4bn – 157.5bn |
| 2035 | 158bn | 184.3bn | 131.7bn | 125.2bn – 190.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.58 | 4.14 | 3.02 | 3.44 – 3.73 |
| 2028 | 3.22 | 4.19 | 2.25 | 2.92 – 3.52 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 4.11 | 1.61 | 2.44 – 3.28 |
| 2035 | 1.95 | 3.72 | 0.19 | 1.37 – 2.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MYS · API docs
