Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Malaysia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.57 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±4.9411 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Malaysia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.96 | 2.62 | -0.7 | 0.6 – 1.31 |
| 2029 | 0.07 | 2.94 | -2.81 | -0.57 – 0.7 |
| 2031 | -0.82 | 2.89 | -4.53 | -1.66 – 0.02 |
| 2036 | -3.04 | 2.21 | -8.29 | -4.6 – -1.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.86 | 83.55 | 61.72 | 69.04 – 74.68 |
| 2028 | 73.64 | 93.89 | 56.08 | 67.21 – 80.06 |
| 2030 | 75.41 | 101.56 | 52.75 | 65.65 – 85.18 |
| 2035 | 79.86 | 116.84 | 47.81 | 61.8 – 97.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed472.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 543bn | 599.1bn | 494.4bn | 526.2bn – 559.9bn |
| 2029 | 608.8bn | 705.9bn | 524.6bn | 563.7bn – 653.8bn |
| 2031 | 674.5bn | 799.9bn | 565.8bn | 597.9bn – 751.1bn |
| 2036 | 838.8bn | 1T | 685.2bn | 664.8bn – 1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.57 | 12 | -2 | 3.23 – 5.9 |
| 2029 | 4.25 | 12 | -7.13 | 1.86 – 6.64 |
| 2031 | 3.93 | 12 | -10 | 0.79 – 7.07 |
| 2036 | 3.13 | 12 | -10 | -1.36 – 7.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.8k | 17.8k | 14.2k | 15.3k – 16.3k |
| 2029 | 17.7k | 21.1k | 14.9k | 16.4k – 19.1k |
| 2031 | 19.7k | 23.9k | 15.9k | 17.4k – 21.9k |
| 2036 | 24.4k | 30.5k | 19.2k | 19.4k – 29.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 71.36 | 78.19 | 63.49 | 69.15 – 73.58 |
| 2029 | 75.09 | 86.91 | 61.45 | 69.53 – 80.64 |
| 2031 | 78.82 | 94.08 | 61.21 | 69.87 – 87.76 |
| 2036 | 88.13 | 109.71 | 63.23 | 69.85 – 106.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.6 | 76.1 | 57.1 | 64.08 – 69.12 |
| 2028 | 68.96 | 85.41 | 52.5 | 63.13 – 74.78 |
| 2030 | 71.31 | 92.55 | 50.06 | 62.35 – 80.26 |
| 2035 | 77.18 | 107.23 | 47.14 | 60.24 – 94.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.17 | 3.59 | 0.65 | 1.82 – 2.52 |
| 2029 | 2.9 | 5.36 | 0.27 | 2.21 – 3.58 |
| 2031 | 3.63 | 6.8 | 0.23 | 2.63 – 4.62 |
| 2036 | 5.44 | 9.93 | 0.64 | 3.58 – 7.31 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.68 | 24.4 | 19.33 | 20.95 – 22.42 |
| 2028 | 22.45 | 27.16 | 18.37 | 20.7 – 24.2 |
| 2030 | 23.22 | 29.29 | 17.95 | 20.49 – 25.94 |
| 2035 | 25.14 | 33.73 | 17.69 | 19.89 – 30.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.9m | 35.5m | 32.4m | 32.9m – 35m |
| 2029 | 32m | 34.3m | 29.9m | 29.6m – 34.4m |
| 2031 | 30.1m | 33m | 27.4m | 26.7m – 33.5m |
| 2036 | 25.3m | 29.4m | 21.4m | 20m – 30.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.22 | 13.75 | -4.69 | 1.85 – 4.59 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 15 | -10 | 1.02 – 5.91 |
| 2030 | 3.71 | 15 | -10 | 0.47 – 6.96 |
| 2035 | 4.34 | 15 | -10 | -0.52 – 9.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 122.1bn | 129.8bn | 114.4bn | 118.3bn – 125.9bn |
| 2028 | 127.2bn | 140.5bn | 113.8bn | 117.8bn – 136.6bn |
| 2030 | 132.2bn | 149.5bn | 115bn | 117.2bn – 147.3bn |
| 2035 | 144.9bn | 169.3bn | 120.6bn | 114.9bn – 175bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.45(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.67 | 5.91 | 3.43 | 4.41 – 4.94 |
| 2027 | 4.93 | 7.09 | 2.78 | 4.37 – 5.5 |
| 2029 | 5.06 | 7.84 | 2.28 | 4.23 – 5.89 |
| 2034 | 5.16 | 9.09 | 1.23 | 3.74 – 6.59 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 128.2bn | 136.5bn | 119.8bn | 124.2bn – 132.1bn |
| 2028 | 134.8bn | 149.2bn | 120.4bn | 124.8bn – 144.8bn |
| 2030 | 141.4bn | 160bn | 122.8bn | 125.4bn – 157.5bn |
| 2035 | 158bn | 184.3bn | 131.7bn | 125.2bn – 190.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.75 | 3.41 | 2.09 | 2.61 – 2.9 |
| 2029 | 2.25 | 3.39 | 1.12 | 1.97 – 2.54 |
| 2031 | 1.76 | 3.22 | 0.29 | 1.39 – 2.12 |
| 2036 | 0.51 | 2.59 | 0 | 0.03 – 0.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MYS · API docs
