Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
North America: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.05 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±4.231 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
North America: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed12.53(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12.38 | 14.26 | 10.75 | 11.91 – 12.85 |
| 2027 | 12.08 | 15.33 | 9.25 | 11.03 – 13.12 |
| 2029 | 11.77 | 15.98 | 8.13 | 10.23 – 13.31 |
| 2034 | 11.01 | 16.96 | 5.86 | 8.4 – 13.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.4T | 36.3T | 32.7T | 33.3T – 35.4T |
| 2028 | 37.6T | 41T | 34.7T | 34.9T – 40.4T |
| 2030 | 40.9T | 45.2T | 37.1T | 36.3T – 45.5T |
| 2035 | 49T | 55.2T | 43.7T | 38.9T – 59.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.05 | 10.44 | -5.22 | 0.62 – 3.48 |
| 2028 | 1.86 | 12 | -10 | -0.65 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 1.67 | 12 | -10 | -1.59 – 4.93 |
| 2035 | 1.2 | 12 | -10 | -3.41 – 5.82 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 89.1k | 94.4k | 84.6k | 86.4k – 91.9k |
| 2028 | 96.5k | 105.5k | 88.6k | 89.3k – 103.6k |
| 2030 | 103.8k | 115.5k | 93.7k | 92k – 115.6k |
| 2035 | 122.2k | 138.8k | 107.8k | 96.8k – 147.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.26 | 17.28 | 13.24 | 14.71 – 15.81 |
| 2027 | 15.02 | 18.51 | 11.52 | 13.76 – 16.27 |
| 2029 | 14.77 | 19.29 | 10.26 | 12.9 – 16.64 |
| 2034 | 14.16 | 20.55 | 7.78 | 10.92 – 17.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.33 | 7.68 | -3.41 | 1.1 – 3.55 |
| 2027 | 0.46 | 9.73 | -5 | -1.64 – 2.56 |
| 2029 | -1.4 | 10.56 | -5 | -4.17 – 1.36 |
| 2034 | -5 | 11.93 | -5 | -5 – -0.45 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.47 | 22.6 | 20.49 | 20.8 – 22.14 |
| 2027 | 21.49 | 22.62 | 20.52 | 19.9 – 23.08 |
| 2029 | 21.52 | 22.65 | 20.54 | 19.07 – 23.96 |
| 2034 | 21.58 | 22.71 | 20.6 | 17.1 – 26.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed383.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 382.3m | 400.4m | 365.5m | 370.5m – 394.2m |
| 2028 | 384.7m | 402.9m | 367.8m | 356.2m – 413.2m |
| 2030 | 387.1m | 405.4m | 370.1m | 343.1m – 431m |
| 2035 | 393.1m | 411.6m | 375.8m | 311.5m – 474.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.34 | 6.65 | -0.89 | 1.77 – 2.92 |
| 2028 | 3.21 | 10.68 | -2.39 | 2.13 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 13.72 | -3.15 | 2.55 – 5.61 |
| 2035 | 6.26 | 15 | -3.97 | 3.55 – 8.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 3.14 | 1.78 | 2.32 – 2.6 |
| 2028 | 2.14 | 3.31 | 0.96 | 1.86 – 2.42 |
| 2030 | 1.98 | 3.5 | 0.46 | 1.59 – 2.37 |
| 2035 | 1.85 | 4 | 0 | 1.23 – 2.48 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.87 | 6.28 | 1.46 | 3.44 – 4.3 |
| 2028 | 2.58 | 6.75 | 0 | 1.82 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 1.3 | 6.68 | 0 | 0.37 – 2.23 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.61 | 0 | 0 – 1.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NAC · API docs
