Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Namibia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 57/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.85 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±6.2223 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Namibia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-15.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -18.03 | -6.57 | -29.49 | -20.66 – -15.4 |
| 2029 | -22.69 | -2.84 | -30 | -27.82 – -17.55 |
| 2031 | -27.34 | -1.72 | -30 | -30 – -19.93 |
| 2036 | -30 | 6.23 | -30 | -30 – -17.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.13 | 53.98 | 39.33 | 44.27 – 47.99 |
| 2028 | 49.04 | 62.64 | 37.26 | 44.74 – 53.34 |
| 2030 | 51.95 | 69.51 | 36.74 | 45.29 – 58.61 |
| 2035 | 59.22 | 84.05 | 37.71 | 46.2 – 72.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.3bn | 21.1bn | 15.9bn | 17.7bn – 18.9bn |
| 2029 | 20.8bn | 25.6bn | 16.6bn | 19.2bn – 22.3bn |
| 2031 | 23.2bn | 29.4bn | 17.9bn | 20.6bn – 25.9bn |
| 2036 | 29.4bn | 38.2bn | 21.8bn | 23.3bn – 35.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.85 | 4.67 | -0.6 | 1.35 – 2.35 |
| 2029 | 0.61 | 5.5 | -3.63 | -0.25 – 1.47 |
| 2031 | -0.63 | 5.68 | -6.09 | -1.76 – 0.51 |
| 2036 | -3.72 | 5.21 | -10 | -5.8 – -1.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.8k | 6.8k | 4.9k | 5.6k – 6k |
| 2029 | 6.4k | 8.2k | 4.9k | 5.9k – 7k |
| 2031 | 7.1k | 9.3k | 5.1k | 6.2k – 7.9k |
| 2036 | 8.6k | 11.8k | 5.8k | 6.8k – 10.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.31 | 79.55 | 66.1 | 71.03 – 75.58 |
| 2029 | 78.92 | 89.74 | 66.44 | 73.08 – 84.76 |
| 2031 | 84.53 | 98.5 | 68.42 | 74.94 – 94.13 |
| 2036 | 98.57 | 118.31 | 75.78 | 78.12 – 119.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.54 | 76.77 | 58.32 | 65.05 – 70.04 |
| 2028 | 74.82 | 90.8 | 58.84 | 68.79 – 80.86 |
| 2030 | 82.1 | 102.73 | 61.47 | 72.38 – 91.83 |
| 2035 | 100.3 | 129.48 | 71.13 | 79.5 – 121.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.16 | 6.96 | 1.17 | 3.48 – 4.85 |
| 2029 | 4.71 | 9.55 | -0.48 | 3.41 – 6 |
| 2031 | 5.25 | 11.5 | -1.44 | 3.45 – 7.06 |
| 2036 | 6.61 | 15.45 | -2.85 | 3.6 – 9.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.61 | 30.93 | 15.41 | 21.06 – 24.16 |
| 2028 | 25.16 | 39.57 | 12.68 | 21.9 – 28.43 |
| 2030 | 27.71 | 46.31 | 11.6 | 22.84 – 32.59 |
| 2035 | 34.09 | 60.39 | 11.3 | 24.88 – 43.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.1m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 3m – 3.2m |
| 2029 | 3.1m | 3.2m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.3m |
| 2031 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.8m – 3.5m |
| 2036 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.5m – 3.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.06 | 6.44 | -4.71 | -0.75 – 0.88 |
| 2028 | 1.56 | 12.59 | -6.72 | 0.1 – 3.01 |
| 2030 | 3.05 | 15 | -7.63 | 1.03 – 5.07 |
| 2035 | 6.78 | 15 | -8.33 | 3.18 – 10.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.8bn | 2.7bn | 3.1bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 4.4bn | 2.6bn | 3.2bn – 3.8bn |
| 2030 | 3.8bn | 5bn | 2.7bn | 3.4bn – 4.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 6.2bn | 3bn | 3.6bn – 5.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.96(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.94 | 5.24 | 2.64 | 3.68 – 4.2 |
| 2027 | 3.92 | 6.17 | 1.67 | 3.39 – 4.45 |
| 2029 | 3.91 | 6.81 | 1.01 | 3.15 – 4.67 |
| 2034 | 3.9 | 8 | 0 | 2.65 – 5.15 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.8bn | 2.7bn | 3.1bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 4.4bn | 2.6bn | 3.2bn – 3.8bn |
| 2030 | 3.8bn | 5bn | 2.7bn | 3.4bn – 4.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 6.2bn | 3bn | 3.6bn – 5.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.88 | 19.91 | 17.85 | 18.3 – 19.47 |
| 2028 | 18.06 | 19.85 | 16.28 | 16.73 – 19.4 |
| 2030 | 17.24 | 19.55 | 14.94 | 15.28 – 19.2 |
| 2035 | 15.19 | 18.45 | 11.94 | 12.04 – 18.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NAM · API docs
