Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
NAQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.56 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
NAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.46 | 1.9 | -6.83 | -3.39 – -1.53 |
| 2029 | -2.19 | 5.37 | -9.75 | -3.84 – -0.54 |
| 2031 | -1.92 | 7.84 | -11.68 | -4.07 – 0.22 |
| 2036 | -1.24 | 12.56 | -15.04 | -4.26 – 1.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.1T | 1.2T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.1T |
| 2029 | 1.2T | 1.4T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.3T |
| 2031 | 1.3T | 1.5T | 1.1T | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2036 | 1.5T | 1.9T | 1.2T | 1.2T – 1.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.56 | 6.67 | 2.72 | 4.13 – 4.98 |
| 2029 | 5.27 | 8.93 | 2.1 | 4.41 – 6.13 |
| 2031 | 5.98 | 10.7 | 1.89 | 4.71 – 7.25 |
| 2036 | 7.76 | 12 | 1.97 | 5.41 – 10.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5k | 5.5k | 4.6k | 4.9k – 5.2k |
| 2029 | 5.4k | 6.2k | 4.6k | 5k – 5.7k |
| 2031 | 5.7k | 6.8k | 4.7k | 5k – 6.3k |
| 2036 | 6.5k | 8.1k | 5.2k | 5.2k – 7.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 74.99 | 81.56 | 67.4 | 72.67 – 77.31 |
| 2029 | 77.17 | 88.56 | 64.03 | 71.46 – 82.88 |
| 2031 | 79.35 | 94.05 | 62.39 | 70.34 – 88.36 |
| 2036 | 84.8 | 105.59 | 60.81 | 67.21 – 102.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.33 | 20.32 | -4.51 | 5.54 – 11.12 |
| 2029 | 3.71 | 24.47 | -5 | -1.07 – 8.49 |
| 2031 | -0.91 | 25.9 | -5 | -5 – 5.11 |
| 2036 | -5 | 32.91 | -5 | -5 – 4.2 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed215.9m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 215.3m | 225.5m | 205.9m | 208.6m – 222m |
| 2029 | 218.9m | 229.2m | 209.3m | 202.7m – 235.1m |
| 2031 | 222.4m | 232.9m | 212.7m | 197.2m – 247.7m |
| 2036 | 231.3m | 242.3m | 221.2m | 183.4m – 279.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NAQ · API docs
