Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Niger: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 18/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.57 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.64, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.70) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±1.5729 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Niger: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.63 | 3.37 | -8.64 | -3.9 – -1.37 |
| 2028 | -0.5 | 9.9 | -10.9 | -2.67 – 1.67 |
| 2030 | 1.63 | 15.06 | -11.79 | -1.24 – 4.5 |
| 2035 | 6.97 | 25.96 | -12.02 | 1.98 – 11.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.81 | 21.52 | 10.87 | 14.75 – 16.88 |
| 2028 | 15.92 | 25.8 | 7.36 | 13.74 – 18.09 |
| 2030 | 16.02 | 28.78 | 4.97 | 12.92 – 19.13 |
| 2035 | 16.28 | 34.32 | 0.65 | 11.1 – 21.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.1bn | 25bn | 21.4bn | 22.4bn – 23.8bn |
| 2028 | 26.7bn | 30bn | 23.8bn | 24.7bn – 28.6bn |
| 2030 | 30.2bn | 34.5bn | 26.5bn | 26.8bn – 33.7bn |
| 2035 | 39.2bn | 45.3bn | 33.9bn | 31bn – 47.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.57 | 12 | -4.53 | 5.92 – 11.23 |
| 2028 | 11.82 | 12 | -10 | 6.89 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.41 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.11 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed775.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 812.09 | 882.89 | 750.73 | 786.92 – 837.27 |
| 2028 | 903.42 | 1k | 797.14 | 836.58 – 970.25 |
| 2030 | 994.74 | 1.2k | 857.53 | 881.8 – 1.1k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1k | 969.34 – 1.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.36 | 53.08 | 40.75 | 45.72 – 49 |
| 2028 | 51.07 | 60.99 | 39.63 | 47.1 – 55.05 |
| 2030 | 54.79 | 67.59 | 40.01 | 48.43 – 61.14 |
| 2035 | 64.08 | 82.18 | 43.18 | 50.78 – 77.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.63 | 22.94 | 10.31 | 15.4 – 17.86 |
| 2028 | 13.6 | 24.53 | 2.66 | 11.27 – 15.92 |
| 2030 | 10.56 | 24.68 | 0 | 7.56 – 13.57 |
| 2035 | 2.98 | 22.95 | 0 | 0 – 6.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 7.91 | -5 | -5 – -2.06 |
| 2028 | -5 | 17.36 | -5 | -5 – 0.2 |
| 2030 | -5 | 23.87 | -5 | -5 – 1.8 |
| 2035 | -5 | 35.83 | -5 | -5 – 4.85 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.35 | 24.51 | 13 | 17.17 – 19.52 |
| 2028 | 11.97 | 22.65 | 2.71 | 9.87 – 14.07 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 19.38 | 0 | 3.17 – 8.01 |
| 2035 | 0 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 – 2.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.7m | 29m | 26.5m | 26.8m – 28.6m |
| 2028 | 28.7m | 30m | 27.4m | 26.5m – 30.8m |
| 2030 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 26.3m – 33m |
| 2035 | 32.1m | 33.6m | 30.7m | 25.4m – 38.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 14.63 | -5.72 | 1.5 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.94 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 4.87 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 8.51 |
| 2035 | 7.21 | 15 | -10 | 1.46 – 12.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.33 | 0.72 | 0 | 0.25 – 0.41 |
| 2028 | 0.2 | 0.88 | 0 | 0.05 – 0.35 |
| 2030 | 0.07 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.28 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NER · API docs
