Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Niger: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.37 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±6.8961 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Niger: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.77 | 1.71 | -11.26 | -6.17 – -3.37 |
| 2029 | -2.12 | 9.12 | -13.35 | -4.51 – 0.28 |
| 2031 | 0.54 | 15.04 | -13.97 | -2.5 – 3.58 |
| 2036 | 7.17 | 27.68 | -13.34 | 1.84 – 12.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.81 | 21.52 | 10.87 | 14.75 – 16.88 |
| 2028 | 15.92 | 25.8 | 7.36 | 13.74 – 18.09 |
| 2030 | 16.02 | 28.78 | 4.97 | 12.92 – 19.13 |
| 2035 | 16.28 | 34.32 | 0.65 | 11.1 – 21.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.6bn | 28.4bn | 25bn | 25.8bn – 27.4bn |
| 2029 | 31bn | 34.1bn | 28.3bn | 28.7bn – 33.3bn |
| 2031 | 35.4bn | 39.4bn | 32bn | 31.4bn – 39.4bn |
| 2036 | 46.5bn | 52.1bn | 41.6bn | 36.8bn – 56.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.37 | 12 | -6.32 | 3.83 – 8.91 |
| 2029 | 5.75 | 12 | -10 | 1.25 – 10.26 |
| 2031 | 5.14 | 12 | -10 | -0.73 – 11.01 |
| 2036 | 3.6 | 12 | -10 | -4.7 – 11.89 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed775.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 861.24 | 906.45 | 822.05 | 834.54 – 887.94 |
| 2029 | 960.49 | 1k | 892.87 | 889.43 – 1k |
| 2031 | 1.1k | 1.2k | 972.45 | 939.41 – 1.2k |
| 2036 | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.2k | 1k – 1.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 46.71 | 52.45 | 40.08 | 45.08 – 48.34 |
| 2029 | 49.12 | 59.06 | 37.65 | 45.23 – 53.01 |
| 2031 | 51.53 | 64.37 | 36.73 | 45.44 – 57.63 |
| 2036 | 57.57 | 75.72 | 36.63 | 45.56 – 69.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.63 | 22.94 | 10.31 | 15.4 – 17.86 |
| 2028 | 13.6 | 24.53 | 2.66 | 11.27 – 15.92 |
| 2030 | 10.56 | 24.68 | 0 | 7.56 – 13.57 |
| 2035 | 2.98 | 22.95 | 0 | 0 – 6.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.42 | 17.29 | -5 | 0.29 – 6.55 |
| 2029 | 10.21 | 34.24 | -5 | 4.4 – 16.03 |
| 2031 | 17.01 | 48.03 | -5 | 8.77 – 25.25 |
| 2036 | 34 | 50 | -5 | 18.84 – 49.17 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.35 | 24.51 | 13 | 17.17 – 19.52 |
| 2028 | 11.97 | 22.65 | 2.71 | 9.87 – 14.07 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 19.38 | 0 | 3.17 – 8.01 |
| 2035 | 0 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 – 2.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.1m | 31.5m | 28.8m | 29.2m – 31m |
| 2029 | 32.6m | 34.2m | 31.2m | 30.2m – 35m |
| 2031 | 35.1m | 37.1m | 33.3m | 31.2m – 39.1m |
| 2036 | 41.4m | 44.2m | 38.8m | 32.8m – 50m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 14.63 | -5.72 | 1.5 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.94 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 4.87 | 15 | -10 | 1.23 – 8.51 |
| 2035 | 7.21 | 15 | -10 | 1.46 – 12.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.33 | 0.72 | 0 | 0.25 – 0.41 |
| 2028 | 0.2 | 0.88 | 0 | 0.05 – 0.35 |
| 2030 | 0.07 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.28 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NER · API docs
