Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Nigeria: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 28/100); the economy is in expansion; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.23 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.44, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1960-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 1960-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±6.1463 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Nigeria: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 1961, 1963, 1965, 1970, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.19 | 11.38 | 3 | 6.22 – 8.16 |
| 2029 | 9.96 | 17.22 | 2.71 | 8.01 – 11.92 |
| 2031 | 12.74 | 22.11 | 3.37 | 9.81 – 15.67 |
| 2036 | 19.68 | 30 | 6.44 | 13.83 – 25.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.24(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.96 – 9.53 |
| 1963 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.56 – 9.93 |
| 1965 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.19 – 10.29 |
| 1970 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 7.32 – 11.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed290.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 343.8bn | 573.9bn | 144.4bn | 310.9bn – 376.7bn |
| 2029 | 263.1bn | 661.6bn | 0 | 203bn – 323.2bn |
| 2031 | 182.3bn | 696.8bn | 0 | 106.5bn – 258.2bn |
| 2036 | 0 | 727.6bn | 0 | 0 – 86.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.23 | 7.22 | 1.65 | 3.67 – 4.8 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 9.74 | 0.09 | 3.49 – 5.65 |
| 2031 | 4.91 | 11.59 | -0.87 | 3.41 – 6.42 |
| 2036 | 5.76 | 12 | -2.42 | 3.27 – 8.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4k | 2.4k | 506.13 | 1.2k – 1.5k |
| 2029 | 939.22 | 2.7k | 0 | 686.79 – 1.2k |
| 2031 | 500.8 | 2.7k | 0 | 193.05 – 808.55 |
| 2036 | 0 | 3.2k | 0 | 0 – 378.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34.48 | 40.21 | 27.85 | 33.04 – 35.91 |
| 2029 | 38.83 | 48.77 | 27.35 | 35.43 – 42.22 |
| 2031 | 43.18 | 56.01 | 28.37 | 37.75 – 48.6 |
| 2036 | 54.05 | 72.2 | 33.11 | 42.61 – 65.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.92(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 16.4 – 17.45 |
| 1963 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 15.67 – 18.18 |
| 1965 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 15 – 18.85 |
| 1970 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 13.41 – 20.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.83 | 28.6 | -1.99 | 10.34 – 17.33 |
| 2029 | 4.02 | 29.6 | -5 | -1.84 – 9.88 |
| 2031 | -5 | 28.03 | -5 | -5 – 2.72 |
| 2036 | -5 | 41.7 | -5 | -5 – 6.15 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed237.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 241.3m | 252.7m | 230.7m | 233.8m – 248.8m |
| 2029 | 246.9m | 258.5m | 236m | 228.6m – 265.1m |
| 2031 | 252.4m | 264.4m | 241.4m | 223.8m – 281.1m |
| 2036 | 266.3m | 278.9m | 254.6m | 211.1m – 321.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.91 | 8.93 | -3.36 | 1 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 15 | -5.28 | 2.14 – 5.55 |
| 2030 | 5.78 | 15 | -6 | 3.36 – 8.21 |
| 2035 | 10.62 | 15 | -6.04 | 6.15 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.4bn | 53bn | 35.8bn | 42.4bn – 46.4bn |
| 2028 | 47.7bn | 62.7bn | 32.7bn | 43.1bn – 52.3bn |
| 2030 | 51bn | 70.4bn | 31.7bn | 44bn – 58.1bn |
| 2035 | 59.3bn | 86.6bn | 32bn | 45.6bn – 73bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.81 | 9.76 | 3.86 | 6.25 – 7.37 |
| 2028 | 6.45 | 11.56 | 1.34 | 5.36 – 7.54 |
| 2030 | 6.27 | 12.87 | 0 | 4.76 – 7.79 |
| 2035 | 6.13 | 15.46 | 0 | 3.72 – 8.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.7bn | 56.8bn | 38.7bn | 45.6bn – 49.9bn |
| 2028 | 51.9bn | 67.6bn | 36.3bn | 47bn – 56.8bn |
| 2030 | 56.1bn | 76.3bn | 35.9bn | 48.5bn – 63.7bn |
| 2035 | 66.5bn | 95.1bn | 38bn | 51.5bn – 81.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 3.62 | 1.3 | 2.25 – 2.68 |
| 2028 | 1.26 | 3.26 | 0 | 0.89 – 1.62 |
| 2030 | 0.05 | 2.64 | 0 | 0 – 0.53 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.66 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NGA · API docs
