Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Nigeria: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.75 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1960-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 1960-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6494 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Nigeria: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 1961, 1963, 1965, 1970, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.1 | 11.25 | 0.95 | 4.95 – 7.25 |
| 2028 | 8.1 | 17.01 | -0.81 | 5.89 – 10.31 |
| 2030 | 10.1 | 21.6 | -1.4 | 6.94 – 13.26 |
| 2035 | 15.1 | 30 | -1.17 | 9.36 – 20.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.24(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.96 – 9.53 |
| 1963 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.56 – 9.93 |
| 1965 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 8.19 – 10.29 |
| 1970 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 8.82 | 7.32 – 11.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed290.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 209.3bn | 513.5bn | 0 | 169.7bn – 248.8bn |
| 2028 | 21.5bn | 548.4bn | 0 | 0 – 85.2bn |
| 2030 | 0 | 680.3bn | 0 | 0 – 81bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 962.1bn | 0 | 0 – 114.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.75 | 11.14 | -0.79 | 3.61 – 5.89 |
| 2028 | 6.48 | 12 | -3.11 | 4.33 – 8.63 |
| 2030 | 8.21 | 12 | -4.17 | 5.17 – 11.25 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -5.5 | 6.71 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 846.55 | 2.2k | 0 | 667.74 – 1k |
| 2028 | 0 | 2.4k | 0 | 0 – 286.28 |
| 2030 | 0 | 3.1k | 0 | 0 – 369.61 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.4k | 0 | 0 – 522.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.03 | 42.96 | 32.35 | 36.66 – 39.4 |
| 2028 | 43.09 | 51.63 | 33.25 | 39.71 – 46.47 |
| 2030 | 48.15 | 59.17 | 35.44 | 42.61 – 53.7 |
| 2035 | 60.81 | 76.39 | 42.83 | 48.2 – 73.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.92(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 16.4 – 17.45 |
| 1963 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 15.67 – 18.18 |
| 1965 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 15 – 18.85 |
| 1970 | 16.92 | 17.75 | 16.1 | 13.41 – 20.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.96 | 31.13 | 3.86 | 14.76 – 21.17 |
| 2028 | 3.64 | 26.45 | -5 | -1.59 – 8.87 |
| 2030 | -5 | 24.44 | -5 | -5 – 1.93 |
| 2035 | -5 | 36.64 | -5 | -5 – 5.03 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed237.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 236.3m | 247.4m | 225.9m | 228.9m – 243.6m |
| 2028 | 241.6m | 253m | 231m | 223.7m – 259.5m |
| 2030 | 246.9m | 258.6m | 236.1m | 218.9m – 275m |
| 2035 | 260.3m | 272.6m | 248.9m | 206.3m – 314.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.91 | 8.93 | -3.36 | 1 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 15 | -5.28 | 2.14 – 5.55 |
| 2030 | 5.78 | 15 | -6 | 3.36 – 8.21 |
| 2035 | 10.62 | 15 | -6.04 | 6.15 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.4bn | 53bn | 35.8bn | 42.4bn – 46.4bn |
| 2028 | 47.7bn | 62.7bn | 32.7bn | 43.1bn – 52.3bn |
| 2030 | 51bn | 70.4bn | 31.7bn | 44bn – 58.1bn |
| 2035 | 59.3bn | 86.6bn | 32bn | 45.6bn – 73bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.81 | 9.76 | 3.86 | 6.25 – 7.37 |
| 2028 | 6.45 | 11.56 | 1.34 | 5.36 – 7.54 |
| 2030 | 6.27 | 12.87 | 0 | 4.76 – 7.79 |
| 2035 | 6.13 | 15.46 | 0 | 3.72 – 8.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.7bn | 56.8bn | 38.7bn | 45.6bn – 49.9bn |
| 2028 | 51.9bn | 67.6bn | 36.3bn | 47bn – 56.8bn |
| 2030 | 56.1bn | 76.3bn | 35.9bn | 48.5bn – 63.7bn |
| 2035 | 66.5bn | 95.1bn | 38bn | 51.5bn – 81.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 3.62 | 1.3 | 2.25 – 2.68 |
| 2028 | 1.26 | 3.26 | 0 | 0.89 – 1.62 |
| 2030 | 0.05 | 2.64 | 0 | 0 – 0.53 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.66 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NGA · API docs
