Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Nicaragua: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 24/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.62 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±5.3315 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Nicaragua: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.11 | 17.88 | -3.66 | 4.8 – 9.42 |
| 2029 | 8.53 | 27.18 | -10.13 | 4.31 – 12.74 |
| 2031 | 9.95 | 30 | -14.13 | 4.24 – 15.66 |
| 2036 | 13.5 | 30 | -20.56 | 4.39 – 22.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.5 | 49.03 | 34.97 | 39.76 – 43.24 |
| 2028 | 41.31 | 54.35 | 30 | 37.46 – 45.15 |
| 2030 | 41.12 | 57.95 | 26.52 | 35.42 – 46.81 |
| 2035 | 40.64 | 64.45 | 20 | 30.73 – 50.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 25.8bn | 27.4bn | 24.5bn | 25bn – 26.6bn |
| 2029 | 29.8bn | 32.6bn | 27.5bn | 27.6bn – 32bn |
| 2031 | 33.9bn | 37.4bn | 30.8bn | 30bn – 37.7bn |
| 2036 | 43.9bn | 48.9bn | 39.6bn | 34.8bn – 53bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.62 | 9.8 | -1.74 | 2.53 – 4.71 |
| 2029 | 3.1 | 12 | -6.18 | 1.17 – 5.04 |
| 2031 | 2.59 | 12 | -9.4 | 0.07 – 5.1 |
| 2036 | 1.3 | 12 | -10 | -2.17 – 4.76 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.8k | 4k | 3.6k | 3.7k – 3.9k |
| 2029 | 4.3k | 4.8k | 4k | 4k – 4.7k |
| 2031 | 4.9k | 5.5k | 4.4k | 4.4k – 5.5k |
| 2036 | 6.3k | 7.1k | 5.6k | 5k – 7.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.61 | 39.3 | 24.88 | 31.05 – 34.16 |
| 2029 | 31.42 | 43.01 | 18.04 | 28.13 – 34.71 |
| 2031 | 30.23 | 45.19 | 12.96 | 25.51 – 34.95 |
| 2036 | 27.26 | 48.42 | 2.84 | 19.64 – 34.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.16 | 68.17 | 44.14 | 53.42 – 58.89 |
| 2028 | 58.76 | 79.56 | 37.95 | 52.75 – 64.76 |
| 2030 | 61.36 | 88.22 | 34.49 | 52.34 – 70.38 |
| 2035 | 67.86 | 105.84 | 29.87 | 51.18 – 84.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.4 | 11.27 | -2.96 | 2.81 – 5.99 |
| 2029 | 6.39 | 18.28 | -5 | 3.44 – 9.33 |
| 2031 | 8.37 | 23.73 | -5 | 4.3 – 12.45 |
| 2036 | 13.34 | 35.06 | -5 | 6.39 – 20.29 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.31 | 31.94 | 19.56 | 23.96 – 26.66 |
| 2028 | 27.15 | 38.63 | 17.2 | 24.2 – 30.09 |
| 2030 | 28.99 | 43.81 | 16.14 | 24.55 – 33.42 |
| 2035 | 33.59 | 54.55 | 15.42 | 25.22 – 41.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.8m | 7.1m | 6.5m | 6.5m – 7m |
| 2029 | 6.5m | 6.8m | 6.2m | 6.1m – 7m |
| 2031 | 6.3m | 6.7m | 6m | 5.6m – 7m |
| 2036 | 5.8m | 6.3m | 5.3m | 4.6m – 7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.66 | 14.3 | -4.32 | 2.27 – 5.05 |
| 2028 | 5.42 | 15 | -8.4 | 2.86 – 7.99 |
| 2030 | 7.19 | 15 | -10 | 3.64 – 10.74 |
| 2035 | 11.59 | 15 | -10 | 5.53 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.2bn | 10.4bn | 7.9bn | 8.8bn – 9.5bn |
| 2028 | 11.3bn | 13.4bn | 9.2bn | 10.4bn – 12.2bn |
| 2030 | 13.4bn | 16.2bn | 10.7bn | 11.9bn – 15bn |
| 2035 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 14.9bn | 14.9bn – 22.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.72(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.39 | 6.69 | 4.09 | 5.11 – 5.68 |
| 2027 | 5 | 7.25 | 2.75 | 4.41 – 5.58 |
| 2029 | 4.8 | 7.71 | 1.9 | 3.97 – 5.63 |
| 2034 | 4.65 | 8.76 | 0.54 | 3.28 – 6.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.2bn | 10.4bn | 7.9bn | 8.8bn – 9.5bn |
| 2028 | 11.3bn | 13.4bn | 9.2bn | 10.4bn – 12.2bn |
| 2030 | 13.4bn | 16.2bn | 10.7bn | 11.9bn – 15bn |
| 2035 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 14.9bn | 14.9bn – 22.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.23 | 4.11 | 0.36 | 1.91 – 2.55 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 4.54 | 0 | 0.74 – 1.85 |
| 2031 | 0.36 | 4.55 | 0 | 0 – 1.08 |
| 2036 | 0 | 5.93 | 0 | 0 – 1.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NIC · API docs
