Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Netherlands: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.95 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±6.3621 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Netherlands: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed8.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.14 | 13.79 | 4.49 | 8.05 – 10.24 |
| 2029 | 9.83 | 17.88 | 1.78 | 7.71 – 11.94 |
| 2031 | 10.51 | 20.91 | 0.12 | 7.55 – 13.48 |
| 2036 | 12.23 | 26.93 | -2.47 | 7.27 – 17.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed80.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 80.31 | 92.84 | 69.45 | 77.24 – 83.39 |
| 2028 | 79.59 | 101.3 | 60.78 | 72.67 – 86.52 |
| 2030 | 78.88 | 106.9 | 54.59 | 68.56 – 89.19 |
| 2035 | 77.09 | 116.72 | 42.74 | 59.09 – 95.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5T | 1.6T | 1.4T | 1.5T – 1.6T |
| 2029 | 1.7T | 1.9T | 1.6T | 1.6T – 1.8T |
| 2031 | 1.9T | 2.1T | 1.7T | 1.7T – 2.1T |
| 2036 | 2.4T | 2.7T | 2.1T | 1.9T – 2.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.95 | 6.22 | -3.62 | 0.05 – 1.84 |
| 2029 | 0.3 | 9.43 | -7.61 | -1.27 – 1.87 |
| 2031 | -0.34 | 11.44 | -10 | -2.39 – 1.7 |
| 2036 | -1.96 | 12 | -10 | -5.05 – 1.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 83.7k | 89.8k | 78.4k | 81.1k – 86.3k |
| 2029 | 93.2k | 103.8k | 84.1k | 86.3k – 100.1k |
| 2031 | 102.8k | 116.4k | 91k | 91.1k – 114.4k |
| 2036 | 126.7k | 145.9k | 110k | 100.4k – 152.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.08(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.55 | 4.41 | 0.55 | 2.05 – 3.05 |
| 2029 | 1.92 | 5.15 | 0 | 1.03 – 2.81 |
| 2031 | 1.61 | 5.78 | 0 | 0.46 – 2.77 |
| 2036 | 1.37 | 7.26 | 0 | 0 – 3.04 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.83 | 48.12 | 36.72 | 41.33 – 44.33 |
| 2029 | 40.28 | 49.45 | 29.7 | 36.94 – 43.62 |
| 2031 | 37.73 | 49.57 | 24.08 | 32.89 – 42.57 |
| 2036 | 31.37 | 48.1 | 12.05 | 23.77 – 38.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69 | 82.03 | 55.96 | 65.9 – 72.09 |
| 2028 | 68.09 | 90.66 | 45.51 | 61.36 – 74.81 |
| 2030 | 67.17 | 96.32 | 38.03 | 57.34 – 77.01 |
| 2035 | 64.9 | 106.11 | 23.69 | 48.21 – 81.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.53 | 11.25 | -5 | 0.56 – 4.5 |
| 2029 | 1.75 | 16.85 | -5 | -1.68 – 5.18 |
| 2031 | 0.96 | 20.46 | -5 | -3.44 – 5.36 |
| 2036 | -1 | 26.57 | -5 | -5 – 5.28 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.12 | 11.84 | -5 | 1.14 – 5.11 |
| 2029 | 3.34 | 18.44 | -5 | -0.17 – 6.85 |
| 2031 | 3.42 | 22.91 | -5 | -1.18 – 8.01 |
| 2036 | 3.46 | 31.02 | -5 | -3.21 – 10.12 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.65 | 20.68 | 18.76 | 19.04 – 20.26 |
| 2028 | 19.28 | 21.07 | 17.72 | 17.85 – 20.7 |
| 2030 | 18.9 | 21.21 | 16.9 | 16.75 – 21.05 |
| 2035 | 17.96 | 21.23 | 15.13 | 14.24 – 21.69 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.1m | 19m | 17.3m | 17.5m – 18.7m |
| 2029 | 18.2m | 19m | 17.4m | 16.8m – 19.5m |
| 2031 | 18.2m | 19.1m | 17.4m | 16.2m – 20.3m |
| 2036 | 18.4m | 19.2m | 17.6m | 14.6m – 22.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.77 | 13.52 | -7.03 | 0.28 – 3.27 |
| 2028 | 2.16 | 15 | -10 | -0.49 – 4.81 |
| 2030 | 2.54 | 15 | -10 | -0.94 – 6.03 |
| 2035 | 3.5 | 15 | -10 | -1.7 – 8.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.4bn | 41.7bn | 25.1bn | 31.6bn – 35.2bn |
| 2028 | 37.1bn | 51.5bn | 22.7bn | 33.1bn – 41.1bn |
| 2030 | 40.8bn | 59.4bn | 22.2bn | 34.7bn – 46.9bn |
| 2035 | 50bn | 76.3bn | 23.7bn | 38bn – 62bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.68 | 0.88 | 0.49 | 0.63 – 0.73 |
| 2027 | 0.63 | 0.91 | 0.35 | 0.54 – 0.72 |
| 2029 | 0.6 | 0.96 | 0.24 | 0.46 – 0.74 |
| 2034 | 0.58 | 1.09 | 0.07 | 0.34 – 0.82 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 129.1bn | 152.4bn | 105.8bn | 123.5bn – 134.7bn |
| 2028 | 157.4bn | 197.7bn | 117bn | 143.6bn – 171.1bn |
| 2030 | 185.6bn | 237.7bn | 133.6bn | 162.8bn – 208.4bn |
| 2035 | 256.3bn | 329.9bn | 182.7bn | 203.1bn – 309.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.12 | 4.78 | 3.46 | 3.95 – 4.29 |
| 2029 | 4.16 | 5.31 | 3.01 | 3.78 – 4.53 |
| 2031 | 4.19 | 5.68 | 2.71 | 3.63 – 4.76 |
| 2036 | 4.29 | 6.39 | 2.19 | 3.28 – 5.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NLD · API docs
