Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
NMQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in slowdown; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.02 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.178 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
NMQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.75 | -2.84 | -4.66 | -4 – -3.5 |
| 2028 | -4.25 | -2.67 | -5.83 | -4.78 – -3.72 |
| 2030 | -4.75 | -2.71 | -6.79 | -5.55 – -3.95 |
| 2035 | -6 | -3.11 | -8.89 | -7.55 – -4.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.5T | 38.7T | 34.6T | 35.4T – 37.7T |
| 2028 | 40.1T | 43.9T | 36.8T | 37.1T – 43T |
| 2030 | 43.6T | 48.5T | 39.3T | 38.7T – 48.6T |
| 2035 | 52.5T | 59.4T | 46.4T | 41.6T – 63.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.02 | 10.96 | -5.72 | 0.5 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 1.85 | 12 | -10 | -0.82 – 4.51 |
| 2030 | 1.67 | 12 | -10 | -1.79 – 5.13 |
| 2035 | 1.23 | 12 | -10 | -3.68 – 6.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.7k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.9k | 74.3k | 66k | 67.7k – 72k |
| 2028 | 75.8k | 83.4k | 69.1k | 70.2k – 81.4k |
| 2030 | 81.7k | 91.6k | 73.1k | 72.4k – 91k |
| 2035 | 96.5k | 110.5k | 84.3k | 76.4k – 116.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed121.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 122.05 | 137.27 | 104.5 | 117.76 – 126.35 |
| 2028 | 126.16 | 152.52 | 95.75 | 116.05 – 136.27 |
| 2030 | 130.27 | 164.3 | 91.01 | 114.61 – 145.93 |
| 2035 | 140.54 | 188.66 | 85.02 | 110.65 – 170.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.84 | 8.27 | -2.97 | 1.6 – 4.09 |
| 2028 | 2.42 | 11.82 | -5 | 0.23 – 4.62 |
| 2030 | 2 | 14.14 | -5 | -0.85 – 4.86 |
| 2035 | 0.95 | 18.11 | -5 | -3.01 – 4.92 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed521.9m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 518.6m | 543.1m | 495.9m | 502.5m – 534.7m |
| 2028 | 522.4m | 547.1m | 499.5m | 483.8m – 561.1m |
| 2030 | 526.2m | 551.1m | 503.1m | 466.5m – 586m |
| 2035 | 535.7m | 561.1m | 512.2m | 424.6m – 646.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NMQ · API docs
