Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
NMQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.88 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±3.6114 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
NMQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.47 | -2.67 | -4.26 | -3.68 – -3.25 |
| 2029 | -3.8 | -2.42 | -5.17 | -4.26 – -3.33 |
| 2031 | -4.13 | -2.35 | -5.9 | -4.82 – -3.43 |
| 2036 | -4.95 | -2.44 | -7.47 | -6.26 – -3.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.5T | 40.7T | 36.7T | 37.3T – 39.7T |
| 2029 | 42.2T | 45.9T | 38.9T | 39T – 45.3T |
| 2031 | 45.8T | 50.5T | 41.6T | 40.6T – 51T |
| 2036 | 54.8T | 61.5T | 48.9T | 43.4T – 66.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.88 | 4.62 | -0.49 | 1.39 – 2.37 |
| 2029 | 1.15 | 5.9 | -2.97 | 0.3 – 1.99 |
| 2031 | 0.41 | 6.54 | -4.91 | -0.69 – 1.51 |
| 2036 | -1.43 | 7.24 | -8.95 | -3.11 – 0.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.5k | 77.8k | 69.7k | 71.2k – 75.8k |
| 2029 | 79.6k | 87.1k | 73.1k | 73.7k – 85.5k |
| 2031 | 85.7k | 95.4k | 77.3k | 76k – 95.5k |
| 2036 | 101k | 114.8k | 89.1k | 80.1k – 122k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 122.64 | 137.8 | 105.15 | 118.34 – 126.93 |
| 2029 | 126.32 | 152.57 | 96.02 | 116.21 – 136.42 |
| 2031 | 129.99 | 163.89 | 90.88 | 114.38 – 145.61 |
| 2036 | 139.19 | 187.13 | 83.87 | 109.54 – 168.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.44 | 7.97 | -1.42 | 2.38 – 4.5 |
| 2029 | 4 | 11.85 | -4.41 | 2.07 – 5.93 |
| 2031 | 4.56 | 14.7 | -5 | 1.95 – 7.17 |
| 2036 | 5.96 | 20.3 | -5 | 1.83 – 10.09 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed522.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 520.8m | 545.4m | 498m | 504.7m – 537m |
| 2029 | 523.1m | 547.8m | 500.1m | 484.4m – 561.8m |
| 2031 | 525.4m | 550.2m | 502.3m | 465.7m – 585m |
| 2036 | 531m | 556.1m | 507.7m | 420.9m – 641.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NMQ · API docs
