Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
NMQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.76 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4433 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
NMQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.52 | -2.71 | -4.33 | -3.74 – -3.29 |
| 2028 | -3.95 | -2.54 | -5.35 | -4.42 – -3.47 |
| 2030 | -4.38 | -2.57 | -6.19 | -5.1 – -3.66 |
| 2035 | -5.45 | -2.89 | -8.01 | -6.85 – -4.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.4T | 38.6T | 34.5T | 35.3T – 37.5T |
| 2028 | 39.9T | 43.7T | 36.6T | 36.9T – 42.9T |
| 2030 | 43.4T | 48.3T | 39.1T | 38.5T – 48.3T |
| 2035 | 52.1T | 59.1T | 46.1T | 41.3T – 62.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.76 | 10.56 | -5.87 | 0.26 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 1.43 | 12 | -10 | -1.18 – 4.04 |
| 2030 | 1.11 | 12 | -10 | -2.26 – 4.48 |
| 2035 | 0.3 | 12 | -10 | -4.5 – 5.1 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.6k | 74k | 65.8k | 67.5k – 71.8k |
| 2028 | 75.4k | 83.1k | 68.8k | 69.8k – 81k |
| 2030 | 81.2k | 91.1k | 72.7k | 72k – 90.5k |
| 2035 | 95.7k | 109.7k | 83.6k | 75.9k – 115.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 121.63 | 136.9 | 104 | 117.33 – 125.92 |
| 2028 | 125.68 | 152.13 | 95.16 | 115.58 – 135.78 |
| 2030 | 129.73 | 163.88 | 90.33 | 114.1 – 145.37 |
| 2035 | 139.87 | 188.16 | 84.14 | 110.06 – 169.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.84 | 8.27 | -2.97 | 1.6 – 4.09 |
| 2028 | 2.42 | 11.82 | -5 | 0.23 – 4.62 |
| 2030 | 2 | 14.14 | -5 | -0.85 – 4.86 |
| 2035 | 0.95 | 18.11 | -5 | -3.01 – 4.92 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed522.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 518.6m | 543.1m | 495.9m | 502.5m – 534.7m |
| 2028 | 522.4m | 547.1m | 499.5m | 483.8m – 561.1m |
| 2030 | 526.3m | 551.1m | 503.2m | 466.5m – 586m |
| 2035 | 535.8m | 561.1m | 512.3m | 424.7m – 647m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-17 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NMQ · API docs
