Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Norway: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.33 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±3.2795 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Norway: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed14.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.82 | 30 | 0.19 | 12.38 – 19.26 |
| 2029 | 18.85 | 30 | -8.21 | 12.42 – 25.28 |
| 2031 | 21.89 | 30 | -13.05 | 13.01 – 30 |
| 2036 | 29.48 | 30 | -19.94 | 14.68 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.36 | 61.4 | 35.19 | 44.6 – 50.12 |
| 2028 | 51.33 | 75.65 | 30.26 | 45.4 – 57.27 |
| 2030 | 55.31 | 86.69 | 28.1 | 46.4 – 64.22 |
| 2035 | 65.24 | 109.63 | 26.77 | 48.46 – 82.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed530.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 621.9bn | 789.9bn | 476.2bn | 591.9bn – 651.8bn |
| 2029 | 677.5bn | 968.5bn | 425.2bn | 610.3bn – 744.7bn |
| 2031 | 733.1bn | 1.1T | 407.5bn | 629.8bn – 836.5bn |
| 2036 | 872.2bn | 1.4T | 411.7bn | 669.4bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.33 | 4.83 | -1.71 | 0.72 – 1.93 |
| 2029 | 0.92 | 6.99 | -4.35 | -0.14 – 1.98 |
| 2031 | 0.51 | 8.34 | -6.29 | -0.88 – 1.89 |
| 2036 | -0.52 | 10.56 | -10 | -2.53 – 1.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed94.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 109.2k | 140.3k | 82.3k | 103.8k – 114.7k |
| 2029 | 117.6k | 171.4k | 70.9k | 105.5k – 129.6k |
| 2031 | 125.9k | 195.4k | 65.7k | 107.6k – 144.2k |
| 2036 | 146.8k | 245k | 61.7k | 111.6k – 181.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.87 | 54.44 | 31.68 | 41.54 – 46.2 |
| 2029 | 45.81 | 64.11 | 24.7 | 40.8 – 50.83 |
| 2031 | 47.76 | 71.38 | 20.5 | 40.3 – 55.21 |
| 2036 | 52.62 | 86.02 | 14.07 | 39.06 – 66.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.87 | 39.38 | 28.35 | 32.48 – 35.25 |
| 2028 | 34.24 | 43.79 | 24.69 | 31.13 – 37.34 |
| 2030 | 34.61 | 46.94 | 22.29 | 29.96 – 39.27 |
| 2035 | 35.54 | 52.98 | 18.11 | 27.19 – 43.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.47 | 6.47 | 0.25 | 2.74 – 4.19 |
| 2029 | 3.81 | 9.01 | -1.77 | 2.47 – 5.14 |
| 2031 | 4.15 | 10.87 | -3.05 | 2.33 – 5.97 |
| 2036 | 5.01 | 14.51 | -5 | 2.1 – 7.91 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.82 | 30.01 | 18.46 | 22.56 – 25.09 |
| 2028 | 24.62 | 35.33 | 15.34 | 21.91 – 27.33 |
| 2030 | 25.41 | 39.24 | 13.43 | 21.4 – 29.42 |
| 2035 | 27.4 | 46.95 | 10.45 | 20.22 – 34.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.6m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.5m – 5.8m |
| 2029 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.3m – 6.1m |
| 2031 | 5.8m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.1m – 6.4m |
| 2036 | 5.9m | 6.2m | 5.6m | 4.7m – 7.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.14 | 6.2 | -2.65 | 0.49 – 1.79 |
| 2028 | 1.3 | 10.06 | -5.27 | 0.14 – 2.46 |
| 2030 | 1.46 | 12.76 | -7.03 | -0.07 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 1.85 | 15 | -10 | -0.45 – 4.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.5bn | 102bn | 75bn | 85bn – 92bn |
| 2028 | 95.6bn | 119bn | 72.3bn | 87.5bn – 103.8bn |
| 2030 | 102.8bn | 132.9bn | 72.6bn | 89.9bn – 115.6bn |
| 2035 | 120.6bn | 163.2bn | 77.9bn | 94.8bn – 146.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.51 | 6.21 | 2.81 | 4.18 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 4.68 | 7.63 | 1.74 | 4.01 – 5.36 |
| 2030 | 4.77 | 8.58 | 0.96 | 3.8 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 4.84 | 10.22 | 0 | 3.24 – 6.43 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.5bn | 102bn | 75bn | 85bn – 92bn |
| 2028 | 95.6bn | 119bn | 72.3bn | 87.5bn – 103.8bn |
| 2030 | 102.8bn | 132.9bn | 72.6bn | 89.9bn – 115.6bn |
| 2035 | 120.6bn | 163.2bn | 77.9bn | 94.8bn – 146.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.31 | 5.6 | 3.02 | 4.04 – 4.58 |
| 2029 | 4.53 | 6.76 | 2.3 | 3.97 – 5.09 |
| 2031 | 4.75 | 7.63 | 1.87 | 3.93 – 5.57 |
| 2036 | 5.3 | 9.38 | 1.22 | 3.83 – 6.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NOR · API docs
