Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Nepal: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.4 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±2.4017 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Nepal: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.44 | 20.02 | -3.14 | 5.94 – 10.94 |
| 2028 | 11.91 | 30 | -8.14 | 7.25 – 16.58 |
| 2030 | 15.39 | 30 | -10.5 | 8.88 – 21.91 |
| 2035 | 24.08 | 30 | -12.54 | 12.76 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.92 | 11.19 | 6.96 | 8.46 – 9.39 |
| 2028 | 9.12 | 13.05 | 5.71 | 8.12 – 10.12 |
| 2030 | 9.31 | 14.38 | 4.92 | 7.84 – 10.78 |
| 2035 | 9.8 | 16.97 | 3.58 | 7.2 – 12.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.7bn | 50.3bn | 43.7bn | 45.3bn – 48.2bn |
| 2028 | 50.1bn | 56.2bn | 44.7bn | 46.4bn – 53.8bn |
| 2030 | 53.4bn | 61.4bn | 46.5bn | 47.4bn – 59.5bn |
| 2035 | 61.8bn | 73bn | 52bn | 49bn – 74.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 12 | -0.91 | 4.1 – 6.7 |
| 2028 | 7.5 | 12 | -3.42 | 5.04 – 9.96 |
| 2030 | 9.6 | 12 | -4.5 | 6.12 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -7.95 | 6.24 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.5k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2028 | 1.7k | 1.9k | 1.5k | 1.6k – 1.8k |
| 2030 | 1.8k | 2.1k | 1.6k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2035 | 2.1k | 2.4k | 1.7k | 1.6k – 2.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.99 | 56.85 | 44.22 | 49.27 – 52.71 |
| 2028 | 56.77 | 66.92 | 45.05 | 52.48 – 61.05 |
| 2030 | 62.54 | 75.65 | 47.42 | 55.44 – 69.64 |
| 2035 | 76.98 | 95.53 | 55.59 | 61.02 – 92.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.69 | 41.64 | 23.74 | 30.8 – 34.58 |
| 2028 | 30.62 | 46.11 | 15.13 | 26.78 – 34.46 |
| 2030 | 28.55 | 48.55 | 8.55 | 23.2 – 33.9 |
| 2035 | 23.38 | 51.66 | 0 | 15.31 – 31.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.05 | 6.36 | -2.58 | 1.06 – 3.04 |
| 2028 | -0.8 | 6.68 | -5 | -2.5 – 0.91 |
| 2030 | -3.64 | 6.01 | -5 | -5 – -1.21 |
| 2035 | -5 | 8.65 | -5 | -5 – -1.17 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.33 | 26.17 | 19 | 21.42 – 23.23 |
| 2028 | 19.18 | 25.84 | 13.41 | 17.31 – 21.05 |
| 2030 | 16.03 | 24.63 | 8.58 | 13.52 – 18.54 |
| 2035 | 8.16 | 20.31 | 0 | 5.11 – 11.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 28.7m – 30.5m |
| 2028 | 29.6m | 31m | 28.3m | 27.4m – 31.8m |
| 2030 | 29.5m | 30.9m | 28.2m | 26.2m – 32.9m |
| 2035 | 29.4m | 30.8m | 28.1m | 23.3m – 35.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.57 | 10.96 | -0.22 | 3.7 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 5.7 | 15 | -2.61 | 4.04 – 7.36 |
| 2030 | 6.82 | 15 | -3.9 | 4.49 – 9.16 |
| 2035 | 9.64 | 15 | -5.52 | 5.57 – 13.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.2bn | 26.5bn | 17.9bn | 21.2bn – 23.3bn |
| 2028 | 27.8bn | 35.2bn | 20.3bn | 25.3bn – 30.2bn |
| 2030 | 33.3bn | 42.9bn | 23.7bn | 29.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2035 | 47.1bn | 60.8bn | 33.5bn | 37.4bn – 56.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.96 | 18.16 | 5.76 | 10.82 – 13.1 |
| 2027 | 10.75 | 21.49 | 0.02 | 8.59 – 12.91 |
| 2029 | 10.16 | 24.02 | 0 | 7.23 – 13.1 |
| 2034 | 9.69 | 29.29 | 0 | 5.14 – 14.24 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.5bn | 28bn | 19bn | 22.4bn – 24.6bn |
| 2028 | 29.4bn | 37.1bn | 21.6bn | 26.8bn – 32bn |
| 2030 | 35.2bn | 45.3bn | 25.2bn | 30.9bn – 39.6bn |
| 2035 | 49.9bn | 64.1bn | 35.7bn | 39.5bn – 60.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.94 | 11.14 | 8.75 | 9.6 – 10.28 |
| 2028 | 8.9 | 10.97 | 6.82 | 8.15 – 9.64 |
| 2030 | 7.85 | 10.52 | 5.17 | 6.81 – 8.89 |
| 2035 | 5.23 | 9.02 | 1.45 | 3.82 – 6.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NPL · API docs
