Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Naoero: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 10 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.84 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2012-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+8% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7417 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Naoero: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.29 | 7.86 | -3.27 | 1.12 – 3.47 |
| 2028 | 1.48 | 11.13 | -8.16 | -0.56 – 3.52 |
| 2030 | 0.67 | 13.12 | -11.78 | -1.95 – 3.29 |
| 2035 | -1.36 | 16.25 | -18.97 | -5.17 – 2.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.95 | 82.89 | 43.81 | 57.97 – 65.94 |
| 2028 | 62.33 | 98.6 | 30.9 | 54.16 – 70.51 |
| 2030 | 62.71 | 109.53 | 22.13 | 51.01 – 74.42 |
| 2035 | 63.66 | 129.87 | 6.27 | 44.01 – 83.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed176m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 177.3m | 211.1m | 148.1m | 170.5m – 184.2m |
| 2028 | 182.8m | 241.3m | 132.1m | 167.1m – 198.5m |
| 2030 | 188.3m | 263.8m | 122.9m | 164.2m – 212.3m |
| 2035 | 202m | 308.7m | 109.5m | 157m – 247m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.84 | 12 | -5.45 | 1.2 – 4.48 |
| 2028 | 4.25 | 12 | -10 | 1.28 – 7.22 |
| 2030 | 5.66 | 12 | -10 | 1.64 – 9.68 |
| 2035 | 9.19 | 12 | -10 | 2.67 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.7k | 17.6k | 12.2k | 14.1k – 15.3k |
| 2028 | 15k | 20k | 10.7k | 13.7k – 16.3k |
| 2030 | 15.3k | 21.7k | 9.8k | 13.3k – 17.3k |
| 2035 | 16.1k | 25.2k | 8.3k | 12.5k – 19.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.04 | 19.48 | 0 | 0.46 – 5.62 |
| 2028 | 0 | 28.47 | 0 | 0 – 4.43 |
| 2030 | 0 | 36.75 | 0 | 0 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 0 | 51.97 | 0 | 0 – 8.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.96 | 117.74 | 94.18 | 102.46 – 109.46 |
| 2028 | 110.53 | 130.93 | 90.13 | 102.1 – 118.96 |
| 2030 | 115.1 | 141.44 | 88.76 | 101.86 – 128.34 |
| 2035 | 126.52 | 150 | 89.28 | 100.28 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.12(2012)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32 | 10.12 | -1.89 | 2.97 – 5.67 |
| 2028 | -0.16 | 9.88 | -5 | -2.43 – 2.11 |
| 2030 | -4.64 | 8.33 | -5 | -5 – -1.39 |
| 2035 | -5 | 13.34 | -5 | -5 – -0.14 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12k | 12.6k | 11.5k | 11.6k – 12.4k |
| 2028 | 12.1k | 12.7k | 11.6k | 11.2k – 13k |
| 2030 | 12.2k | 12.8k | 11.6k | 10.8k – 13.6k |
| 2035 | 12.4k | 13k | 11.8k | 9.8k – 15k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NRU · API docs
