Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Naoero: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 10 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.09 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2012-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+8% skill vs naive; realized ±6.7108 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Naoero: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.17 | 7.42 | -3.09 | 1.06 – 3.28 |
| 2029 | 1.91 | 11.01 | -7.19 | -0.04 – 3.86 |
| 2031 | 1.65 | 13.4 | -10.1 | -0.88 – 4.17 |
| 2036 | 0.99 | 17.61 | -15.63 | -2.56 – 4.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.95 | 82.89 | 43.81 | 57.97 – 65.94 |
| 2028 | 62.33 | 98.6 | 30.9 | 54.16 – 70.51 |
| 2030 | 62.71 | 109.53 | 22.13 | 51.01 – 74.42 |
| 2035 | 63.66 | 129.87 | 6.27 | 44.01 – 83.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed176m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 204.3m | 237.5m | 175.6m | 197.1m – 211.5m |
| 2029 | 225.2m | 282.7m | 175.4m | 207.6m – 242.9m |
| 2031 | 246.1m | 320.3m | 181.9m | 217.6m – 274.6m |
| 2036 | 298.4m | 403.3m | 207.5m | 236.5m – 360.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.09 | 9.33 | -4.18 | 0.85 – 3.33 |
| 2029 | 2.07 | 12 | -8.8 | -0.12 – 4.25 |
| 2031 | 2.04 | 12 | -10 | -0.82 – 4.9 |
| 2036 | 1.98 | 12 | -10 | -2.15 – 6.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.6k | 19.4k | 14.2k | 16k – 17.2k |
| 2029 | 18.2k | 23k | 14k | 16.7k – 19.6k |
| 2031 | 19.7k | 25.9k | 14.3k | 17.3k – 22k |
| 2036 | 23.4k | 32.2k | 15.8k | 18.6k – 28.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.74 | 21.79 | 0 | 2.04 – 7.44 |
| 2029 | 0 | 29.53 | 0 | 0 – 4.59 |
| 2031 | 0 | 38.12 | 0 | 0 – 5.94 |
| 2036 | 0 | 53.91 | 0 | 0 – 8.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.96 | 117.74 | 94.18 | 102.46 – 109.46 |
| 2028 | 110.53 | 130.93 | 90.13 | 102.1 – 118.96 |
| 2030 | 115.1 | 141.44 | 88.76 | 101.86 – 128.34 |
| 2035 | 126.52 | 150 | 89.28 | 100.28 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.12(2012)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.4 | 11.34 | -0.97 | 3.99 – 6.8 |
| 2029 | 4.56 | 14.86 | -5 | 2.06 – 7.06 |
| 2031 | 3.72 | 17.01 | -5 | 0.47 – 6.96 |
| 2036 | 1.62 | 20.42 | -5 | -2.81 – 6.05 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12k | 12.5k | 11.4k | 11.6k – 12.3k |
| 2029 | 11.9k | 12.5k | 11.4k | 11.1k – 12.8k |
| 2031 | 11.9k | 12.5k | 11.4k | 10.6k – 13.3k |
| 2036 | 11.8k | 12.4k | 11.3k | 9.4k – 14.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NRU · API docs
