Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
New Zealand: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in expansion; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.76 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-03-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±4.5353 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
New Zealand: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.18 | 0.93 | -9.3 | -5.29 – -3.07 |
| 2029 | -4.54 | 4.32 | -13.4 | -6.57 – -2.52 |
| 2031 | -4.9 | 6.53 | -16.34 | -7.63 – -2.18 |
| 2036 | -5.81 | 10.36 | -21.98 | -10.04 – -1.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.71(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.1 | 28.86 | 19.98 | 23.04 – 25.17 |
| 2027 | 22.89 | 31.13 | 15.75 | 20.62 – 25.17 |
| 2029 | 21.69 | 32.32 | 12.47 | 18.43 – 24.94 |
| 2034 | 18.67 | 33.71 | 5.63 | 13.53 – 23.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed264.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 284.5bn | 313.4bn | 259.5bn | 275.7bn – 293.4bn |
| 2029 | 299.9bn | 350bn | 256.6bn | 277.7bn – 322.1bn |
| 2031 | 315.3bn | 379.9bn | 259.3bn | 279.5bn – 351.1bn |
| 2036 | 353.8bn | 445.2bn | 274.6bn | 280.4bn – 427.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.76 | 6.27 | -0.27 | 2.14 – 3.39 |
| 2029 | 4.12 | 10.19 | -1.14 | 2.91 – 5.33 |
| 2031 | 5.48 | 12 | -1.32 | 3.73 – 7.22 |
| 2036 | 8.87 | 12 | -0.74 | 5.6 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 52.8k | 58.7k | 47.6k | 51.1k – 54.4k |
| 2029 | 54.7k | 65.1k | 45.7k | 50.7k – 58.8k |
| 2031 | 56.7k | 70.1k | 45.1k | 50.3k – 63.1k |
| 2036 | 61.6k | 80.5k | 45.2k | 48.8k – 74.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 59.89 | 66.82 | 51.89 | 57.87 – 61.91 |
| 2029 | 66.27 | 78.27 | 52.42 | 61.24 – 71.3 |
| 2031 | 72.65 | 88.15 | 54.76 | 64.4 – 80.9 |
| 2036 | 88.6 | 110.52 | 63.31 | 70.22 – 106.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.96(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.91 | 31.68 | 20.13 | 24.61 – 27.21 |
| 2027 | 25.81 | 35.82 | 15.81 | 23.04 – 28.58 |
| 2029 | 25.72 | 38.64 | 12.81 | 21.69 – 29.76 |
| 2034 | 25.49 | 43.75 | 7.22 | 18.61 – 32.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.29 | 7.39 | -1.1 | 2.33 – 4.25 |
| 2029 | 3.66 | 10.75 | -3.94 | 1.91 – 5.4 |
| 2031 | 4.02 | 13.18 | -5 | 1.67 – 6.37 |
| 2036 | 4.93 | 17.88 | -5 | 1.27 – 8.59 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.23 | 25.1 | 21.62 | 22.51 – 23.95 |
| 2027 | 22.87 | 26.1 | 20.06 | 21.17 – 24.56 |
| 2029 | 22.5 | 26.67 | 18.88 | 19.94 – 25.05 |
| 2034 | 21.58 | 27.48 | 16.46 | 17.1 – 26.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.3m | 5.6m | 5.1m | 5.2m – 5.5m |
| 2029 | 5.4m | 5.6m | 5.1m | 5m – 5.8m |
| 2031 | 5.4m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 4.8m – 6m |
| 2036 | 5.5m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 4.4m – 6.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.12 | 4.84 | -3.85 | -0.76 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | -0.73 | 7.88 | -7.18 | -1.85 – 0.4 |
| 2030 | -1.33 | 9.78 | -9.66 | -2.82 – 0.17 |
| 2035 | -2.83 | 12.87 | -10 | -5.25 – -0.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.9bn | 38bn | 23.8bn | 29.3bn – 32.5bn |
| 2028 | 37.6bn | 49.8bn | 25.3bn | 33.9bn – 41.2bn |
| 2030 | 44.2bn | 60.1bn | 28.4bn | 38.3bn – 50.2bn |
| 2035 | 60.9bn | 83.3bn | 38.6bn | 47.8bn – 74.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.63 | 4.66 | 2.6 | 3.42 – 3.85 |
| 2028 | 3.3 | 5.09 | 1.52 | 2.87 – 3.74 |
| 2030 | 3.14 | 5.45 | 0.84 | 2.54 – 3.75 |
| 2035 | 3.02 | 6.27 | 0 | 2.04 – 4 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.9bn | 38bn | 23.8bn | 29.3bn – 32.5bn |
| 2028 | 37.6bn | 49.8bn | 25.3bn | 33.9bn – 41.2bn |
| 2030 | 44.2bn | 60.1bn | 28.4bn | 38.3bn – 50.2bn |
| 2035 | 60.9bn | 83.3bn | 38.6bn | 47.8bn – 74.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.81 | 6.73 | 4.89 | 5.58 – 6.05 |
| 2029 | 6.64 | 8.23 | 5.05 | 6.08 – 7.2 |
| 2031 | 7.46 | 9.52 | 5.41 | 6.55 – 8.37 |
| 2036 | 9.53 | 12.43 | 6.62 | 7.55 – 11.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NZL · API docs
