Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
New Zealand: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -0.05 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-03-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±2.1454 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
New Zealand: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.98 | 1.24 | -9.2 | -5.11 – -2.86 |
| 2028 | -4.55 | 4.49 | -13.59 | -6.62 – -2.49 |
| 2030 | -5.12 | 6.55 | -16.79 | -7.91 – -2.33 |
| 2035 | -6.55 | 9.96 | -23.05 | -10.96 – -2.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.71(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.1 | 28.86 | 19.98 | 23.04 – 25.17 |
| 2027 | 22.89 | 31.13 | 15.75 | 20.62 – 25.17 |
| 2029 | 21.69 | 32.32 | 12.47 | 18.43 – 24.94 |
| 2034 | 18.67 | 33.71 | 5.63 | 13.53 – 23.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed264.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 269bn | 298bn | 243.9bn | 260.7bn – 277.4bn |
| 2028 | 281.8bn | 332.1bn | 238.2bn | 260.9bn – 302.6bn |
| 2030 | 294.5bn | 359.4bn | 238.3bn | 261.1bn – 328bn |
| 2035 | 326.4bn | 418.2bn | 246.9bn | 258.7bn – 394.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.05 | 5.33 | -4.7 | -0.96 – 0.87 |
| 2028 | -1.18 | 8.13 | -9.24 | -2.78 – 0.43 |
| 2030 | -2.31 | 9.71 | -10 | -4.49 – -0.12 |
| 2035 | -5.14 | 11.86 | -10 | -8.79 – -1.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50k | 56k | 44.8k | 48.5k – 51.6k |
| 2028 | 51.2k | 61.6k | 42.1k | 47.4k – 54.9k |
| 2030 | 52.3k | 65.7k | 40.7k | 46.4k – 58.3k |
| 2035 | 55.2k | 74.2k | 38.8k | 43.8k – 66.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.61 | 65.14 | 48.91 | 55.52 – 59.69 |
| 2028 | 63.42 | 76.47 | 48.36 | 58.36 – 68.47 |
| 2030 | 69.23 | 86.07 | 49.79 | 61.1 – 77.36 |
| 2035 | 83.75 | 107.58 | 56.26 | 66.38 – 101.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.96(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.91 | 31.68 | 20.13 | 24.61 – 27.21 |
| 2027 | 25.81 | 35.82 | 15.81 | 23.04 – 28.58 |
| 2029 | 25.72 | 38.64 | 12.81 | 21.69 – 29.76 |
| 2034 | 25.49 | 43.75 | 7.22 | 18.61 – 32.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.07 | 7.62 | -1.81 | 2.01 – 4.12 |
| 2028 | 2.95 | 10.83 | -5 | 1.06 – 4.84 |
| 2030 | 2.83 | 13.01 | -5 | 0.35 – 5.32 |
| 2035 | 2.54 | 16.93 | -5 | -1.05 – 6.14 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.23 | 25.1 | 21.62 | 22.51 – 23.95 |
| 2027 | 22.87 | 26.1 | 20.06 | 21.17 – 24.56 |
| 2029 | 22.5 | 26.67 | 18.88 | 19.94 – 25.05 |
| 2034 | 21.58 | 27.48 | 16.46 | 17.1 – 26.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3m | 5.5m | 5.1m | 5.1m – 5.5m |
| 2028 | 5.3m | 5.6m | 5.1m | 4.9m – 5.7m |
| 2030 | 5.4m | 5.6m | 5.1m | 4.8m – 6m |
| 2035 | 5.5m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 4.3m – 6.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.12 | 4.84 | -3.85 | -0.76 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | -0.73 | 7.88 | -7.18 | -1.85 – 0.4 |
| 2030 | -1.33 | 9.78 | -9.66 | -2.82 – 0.17 |
| 2035 | -2.83 | 12.87 | -10 | -5.25 – -0.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.9bn | 38bn | 23.8bn | 29.3bn – 32.5bn |
| 2028 | 37.6bn | 49.8bn | 25.3bn | 33.9bn – 41.2bn |
| 2030 | 44.2bn | 60.1bn | 28.4bn | 38.3bn – 50.2bn |
| 2035 | 60.9bn | 83.3bn | 38.6bn | 47.8bn – 74.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.63 | 4.66 | 2.6 | 3.42 – 3.85 |
| 2028 | 3.3 | 5.09 | 1.52 | 2.87 – 3.74 |
| 2030 | 3.14 | 5.45 | 0.84 | 2.54 – 3.75 |
| 2035 | 3.02 | 6.27 | 0 | 2.04 – 4 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.9bn | 38bn | 23.8bn | 29.3bn – 32.5bn |
| 2028 | 37.6bn | 49.8bn | 25.3bn | 33.9bn – 41.2bn |
| 2030 | 44.2bn | 60.1bn | 28.4bn | 38.3bn – 50.2bn |
| 2035 | 60.9bn | 83.3bn | 38.6bn | 47.8bn – 74.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.24 | 6.52 | 3.95 | 4.96 – 5.52 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 7.79 | 3.34 | 4.96 – 6.17 |
| 2030 | 5.89 | 8.76 | 3.02 | 4.98 – 6.8 |
| 2035 | 6.7 | 10.76 | 2.64 | 5.01 – 8.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/NZL · API docs
