Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
OAE: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 24/100); the economy is in expansion; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.46 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.8617 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
OAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.16 | 8.66 | 5.66 | 6.74 – 7.58 |
| 2028 | 7.89 | 10.49 | 5.29 | 6.98 – 8.8 |
| 2030 | 8.62 | 11.97 | 5.26 | 7.24 – 9.99 |
| 2035 | 10.43 | 15.17 | 5.69 | 7.79 – 13.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.1T | 11T | 9.3T | 9.8T – 10.4T |
| 2028 | 10.8T | 12.4T | 9.4T | 10T – 11.6T |
| 2030 | 11.4T | 13.5T | 9.7T | 10.1T – 12.7T |
| 2035 | 13.1T | 16T | 10.6T | 10.4T – 15.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.46 | 10.94 | -3.02 | 2.16 – 4.76 |
| 2028 | 4.46 | 12 | -6.77 | 2.08 – 6.83 |
| 2030 | 5.45 | 12 | -9.04 | 2.23 – 8.67 |
| 2035 | 7.93 | 12 | -10 | 2.72 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.4k | 62k | 51.7k | 54.7k – 58.2k |
| 2028 | 59.6k | 69.1k | 51.3k | 55.2k – 64k |
| 2030 | 62.7k | 75k | 52.1k | 55.6k – 69.9k |
| 2035 | 70.6k | 88k | 55.5k | 55.9k – 85.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.16 | 56.31 | 47.37 | 50.55 – 53.78 |
| 2028 | 54.69 | 61.88 | 46.39 | 50.64 – 58.74 |
| 2030 | 57.22 | 66.5 | 46.51 | 50.72 – 63.71 |
| 2035 | 63.53 | 76.65 | 48.39 | 50.35 – 76.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.06 | 6.04 | -2.2 | 1.15 – 2.98 |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 8.53 | -5 | 0.04 – 3.25 |
| 2030 | 1.22 | 10.11 | -5 | -0.84 – 3.29 |
| 2035 | 0.17 | 12.75 | -5 | -2.77 – 3.12 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed179.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 178m | 186.4m | 170.2m | 172.5m – 183.5m |
| 2028 | 178.7m | 187.1m | 170.8m | 165.4m – 191.9m |
| 2030 | 179.3m | 187.8m | 171.4m | 159m – 199.7m |
| 2035 | 181m | 189.5m | 173m | 143.4m – 218.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.39 | 4.15 | 2.62 | 3.21 – 3.56 |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 4.28 | 1.63 | 2.61 – 3.3 |
| 2030 | 2.53 | 4.24 | 0.82 | 2.06 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 1.46 | 3.87 | 0 | 0.85 – 2.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-17 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/OAE · API docs
