Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
OAE: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.52 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±4.1808 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
OAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.66 | 8.25 | 5.07 | 6.23 – 7.09 |
| 2029 | 7.19 | 9.94 | 4.43 | 6.28 – 8.1 |
| 2031 | 7.72 | 11.27 | 4.16 | 6.37 – 9.06 |
| 2036 | 9.03 | 14.06 | 4 | 6.56 – 11.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.3T | 12.2T | 10.4T | 10.9T – 11.6T |
| 2029 | 12.3T | 14T | 10.9T | 11.4T – 13.2T |
| 2031 | 13.4T | 15.5T | 11.6T | 11.9T – 14.9T |
| 2036 | 16.1T | 19T | 13.5T | 12.7T – 19.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.52 | 5.39 | 0.04 | 2.01 – 3.04 |
| 2029 | 2.32 | 7.28 | -1.99 | 1.38 – 3.25 |
| 2031 | 2.11 | 8.52 | -3.45 | 0.87 – 3.34 |
| 2036 | 1.59 | 10.65 | -6.27 | -0.18 – 3.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 62.6k | 68.2k | 57.7k | 60.7k – 64.5k |
| 2029 | 68.1k | 77.8k | 59.7k | 63k – 73.1k |
| 2031 | 73.6k | 86.1k | 62.7k | 65.2k – 81.9k |
| 2036 | 87.3k | 105k | 71.9k | 69.2k – 105.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.15 | 57.18 | 48.5 | 51.5 – 54.8 |
| 2029 | 55.65 | 62.64 | 47.59 | 51.53 – 59.77 |
| 2031 | 58.15 | 67.17 | 47.75 | 51.55 – 64.75 |
| 2036 | 64.4 | 77.16 | 49.69 | 51.04 – 77.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.64 | 6.3 | -1.27 | 1.79 – 3.5 |
| 2029 | 3.2 | 9.53 | -3.57 | 1.65 – 4.76 |
| 2031 | 3.76 | 11.93 | -4.99 | 1.65 – 5.87 |
| 2036 | 5.16 | 16.71 | -5 | 1.78 – 8.55 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed179.1m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 178.8m | 187.3m | 171m | 173.3m – 184.4m |
| 2029 | 179.6m | 188.1m | 171.7m | 166.3m – 192.9m |
| 2031 | 180.4m | 188.9m | 172.5m | 159.9m – 200.9m |
| 2036 | 182.3m | 190.9m | 174.3m | 144.5m – 220.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.52 | 4.29 | 2.75 | 3.35 – 3.7 |
| 2029 | 3.37 | 4.7 | 2.03 | 3 – 3.73 |
| 2031 | 3.21 | 4.94 | 1.49 | 2.69 – 3.74 |
| 2036 | 2.83 | 5.26 | 0.39 | 2 – 3.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/OAE · API docs
