Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
OECD members: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 47/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.92 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±5.1123 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
OECD members: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed28.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.41 | 31.87 | 25.42 | 27.46 – 29.36 |
| 2028 | 28.73 | 34.71 | 23.54 | 26.49 – 30.96 |
| 2030 | 29.04 | 36.77 | 22.34 | 25.61 – 32.47 |
| 2035 | 29.83 | 40.76 | 20.35 | 23.49 – 36.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.5T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.2T | 80.1T | 70.9T | 72.9T – 77.5T |
| 2028 | 81.8T | 90.3T | 74.5T | 75.8T – 87.9T |
| 2030 | 88.5T | 99.5T | 79T | 78.4T – 98.5T |
| 2035 | 105.1T | 120.7T | 91.7T | 83.3T – 126.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.92 | 11.46 | -6.36 | 0.29 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 12 | -10 | -0.66 – 5.07 |
| 2030 | 2.49 | 12 | -10 | -1.26 – 6.25 |
| 2035 | 3.22 | 12 | -10 | -2.33 – 8.76 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.4k | 57k | 50.3k | 51.7k – 55.1k |
| 2028 | 57.7k | 63.9k | 52.3k | 53.4k – 61.9k |
| 2030 | 62k | 70k | 55k | 54.9k – 69k |
| 2035 | 72.6k | 84k | 62.8k | 57.6k – 87.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.51 | 32.49 | 24.54 | 27.45 – 29.58 |
| 2028 | 28.88 | 35.77 | 21.99 | 26.44 – 31.32 |
| 2030 | 29.25 | 38.15 | 20.36 | 25.55 – 32.96 |
| 2035 | 30.18 | 42.76 | 17.6 | 23.42 – 36.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 9.45 | -3.58 | 1.71 – 4.6 |
| 2028 | 3.28 | 14.17 | -5 | 0.71 – 5.85 |
| 2030 | 3.4 | 17.46 | -5 | 0.01 – 6.79 |
| 2035 | 3.71 | 23.59 | -5 | -1.29 – 8.71 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.23(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.22 | 23.39 | 21.21 | 21.53 – 22.91 |
| 2027 | 22.17 | 23.33 | 21.16 | 20.53 – 23.81 |
| 2029 | 22.12 | 23.28 | 21.11 | 19.61 – 24.63 |
| 2034 | 21.99 | 23.3 | 20.85 | 17.43 – 26.55 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.3bn – 1.5bn |
| 2030 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.3bn – 1.6bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 6.58 | -2.13 | 0.95 – 2.25 |
| 2028 | 2.09 | 10.7 | -4.38 | 0.91 – 3.26 |
| 2030 | 2.57 | 13.69 | -5.78 | 0.97 – 4.16 |
| 2035 | 3.78 | 15 | -8.02 | 1.21 – 6.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.59 | 10.12 | 5.07 | 7.09 – 8.1 |
| 2028 | 8.03 | 12.4 | 3.67 | 6.98 – 9.09 |
| 2030 | 8.25 | 13.89 | 2.61 | 6.73 – 9.77 |
| 2035 | 8.42 | 16.4 | 0.45 | 5.85 – 10.99 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.49 | 5.53 | 3.46 | 4.26 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 3.63 | 5.43 | 1.83 | 3.18 – 4.08 |
| 2030 | 2.76 | 5.08 | 0.44 | 2.19 – 3.34 |
| 2035 | 0.6 | 3.88 | 0 | 0 – 1.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/OED · API docs
