Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Oman: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.9 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6025 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Oman: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed7.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 16.76 | -10.6 | 0.24 – 5.92 |
| 2028 | 6.64 | 30 | -17.06 | 1.48 – 11.79 |
| 2030 | 10.2 | 30 | -20.39 | 3.14 – 17.26 |
| 2035 | 19.1 | 30 | -24.17 | 7.21 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.07(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 68.99 | 78.13 | 61.06 | 66.58 – 71.4 |
| 2027 | 74.82 | 90.66 | 61.09 | 68.96 – 80.67 |
| 2029 | 80.65 | 101.1 | 62.92 | 71.27 – 90.02 |
| 2034 | 95.22 | 124.15 | 70.15 | 75.47 – 114.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 110.5bn | 132.5bn | 91.4bn | 106.1bn – 114.8bn |
| 2028 | 113.7bn | 151.9bn | 80.6bn | 103.7bn – 123.7bn |
| 2030 | 116.9bn | 166.2bn | 74.2bn | 101.7bn – 132.1bn |
| 2035 | 124.9bn | 194.6bn | 64.5bn | 96.7bn – 153.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9 | 12 | -5.32 | 1.27 – 4.52 |
| 2028 | 3.93 | 12 | -10 | 1 – 6.86 |
| 2030 | 4.96 | 12 | -10 | 1.03 – 8.89 |
| 2035 | 7.54 | 12 | -10 | 1.34 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.4k | 24k | 15.5k | 18.6k – 20.3k |
| 2028 | 18.4k | 26.4k | 11.6k | 16.6k – 20.3k |
| 2030 | 17.4k | 27.7k | 8.6k | 14.8k – 20.1k |
| 2035 | 14.9k | 29.4k | 2.4k | 10.8k – 19k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.51 | 53.68 | 14.54 | 32.14 – 38.87 |
| 2028 | 34.92 | 66.39 | 0 | 28.4 – 41.43 |
| 2030 | 34.33 | 74.96 | 0 | 25.33 – 43.33 |
| 2035 | 32.85 | 90.32 | 0 | 18.76 – 46.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49.78 | 57.43 | 42.13 | 47.81 – 51.75 |
| 2027 | 51.79 | 65.03 | 38.54 | 47.27 – 56.3 |
| 2029 | 53.79 | 70.89 | 36.69 | 46.87 – 60.71 |
| 2034 | 58.8 | 82.99 | 34.61 | 45.69 – 71.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.18 | 3.64 | -1.46 | 0.62 – 1.74 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 5.97 | -2.86 | 0.68 – 2.73 |
| 2030 | 2.23 | 7.73 | -3.67 | 0.83 – 3.63 |
| 2035 | 3.54 | 11.32 | -4.8 | 1.25 – 5.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.54(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.98 | 30.56 | 20.14 | 23.78 – 26.17 |
| 2027 | 23.53 | 33.2 | 15.14 | 21.02 – 26.04 |
| 2029 | 22.08 | 34.57 | 11.25 | 18.53 – 25.63 |
| 2034 | 18.45 | 36.12 | 3.15 | 12.98 – 23.93 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 5.3m – 5.6m |
| 2028 | 5.7m | 6.1m | 5.3m | 5.2m – 6.1m |
| 2030 | 5.9m | 6.4m | 5.4m | 5.2m – 6.6m |
| 2035 | 6.5m | 7.3m | 5.8m | 5.1m – 7.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.86 | 6.31 | -9.74 | -4.05 – -1.67 |
| 2028 | -4.54 | 11.34 | -10 | -6.75 – -2.34 |
| 2030 | -6.23 | 14.27 | -10 | -9.29 – -3.17 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.78 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.4bn | 21.6bn | 13.2bn | 16.5bn – 18.3bn |
| 2027 | 16.8bn | 24.1bn | 9.6bn | 14.9bn – 18.8bn |
| 2029 | 16.3bn | 25.6bn | 6.9bn | 13.5bn – 19bn |
| 2034 | 14.8bn | 28.1bn | 1.6bn | 10.4bn – 19.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.69(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.03 | 6.19 | 1.87 | 3.63 – 4.43 |
| 2027 | 4.44 | 8.19 | 0.69 | 3.65 – 5.23 |
| 2029 | 4.64 | 9.48 | 0 | 3.53 – 5.75 |
| 2034 | 4.8 | 11.64 | 0 | 2.98 – 6.61 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18.1bn | 22.2bn | 13.9bn | 17.1bn – 19bn |
| 2027 | 17.8bn | 25bn | 10.5bn | 15.8bn – 19.7bn |
| 2029 | 17.4bn | 26.8bn | 8.1bn | 14.6bn – 20.3bn |
| 2034 | 16.6bn | 29.9bn | 3.4bn | 12bn – 21.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4 | 4.93 | 1.88 | 3.12 – 3.69 |
| 2028 | 3.71 | 6.36 | 1.06 | 3.13 – 4.29 |
| 2030 | 4.01 | 7.43 | 0.6 | 3.17 – 4.86 |
| 2035 | 4.78 | 9.61 | 0 | 3.27 – 6.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/OMN · API docs
