Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Other small states: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.05 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2809 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Other small states: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed75.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.42 | 87.93 | 68.31 | 74.68 – 80.16 |
| 2028 | 80.34 | 98.55 | 64.56 | 73.88 – 86.8 |
| 2030 | 83.26 | 106.77 | 62.89 | 73.24 – 93.28 |
| 2035 | 90.56 | 123.8 | 61.75 | 71.32 – 109.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed228.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 239.2bn | 264bn | 217.7bn | 231.8bn – 246.6bn |
| 2028 | 266bn | 308.9bn | 228.8bn | 246.3bn – 285.7bn |
| 2030 | 292.8bn | 348.3bn | 244.8bn | 259.6bn – 326.1bn |
| 2035 | 359.9bn | 438.3bn | 292bn | 285.2bn – 434.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.05 | 12 | -8.13 | 0.85 – 5.25 |
| 2028 | 3.43 | 12 | -10 | -0.46 – 7.32 |
| 2030 | 3.81 | 12 | -10 | -1.31 – 8.92 |
| 2035 | 4.75 | 12 | -10 | -2.81 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.2k | 20.2k | 16.5k | 17.7k – 18.8k |
| 2028 | 20k | 23.5k | 17.1k | 18.6k – 21.5k |
| 2030 | 21.8k | 26.3k | 18k | 19.4k – 24.3k |
| 2035 | 26.3k | 32.6k | 20.9k | 20.9k – 31.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.39 | 83.43 | 67.35 | 72.95 – 77.83 |
| 2028 | 78.05 | 91.98 | 64.12 | 72.17 – 83.93 |
| 2030 | 80.71 | 98.69 | 62.73 | 71.5 – 89.92 |
| 2035 | 87.37 | 112.8 | 61.94 | 69.24 – 105.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.41 | 9.4 | -3.01 | 2.03 – 4.79 |
| 2028 | 4.42 | 14.79 | -5 | 1.9 – 6.93 |
| 2030 | 5.42 | 18.82 | -5 | 2.02 – 8.83 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 26.88 | -5 | 2.47 – 13.41 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.89 | 24.1 | 21.85 | 22.18 – 23.6 |
| 2028 | 22.38 | 24.17 | 20.83 | 20.73 – 24.04 |
| 2030 | 21.87 | 24.18 | 19.86 | 19.38 – 24.35 |
| 2035 | 20.58 | 23.86 | 17.74 | 16.31 – 24.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13m | 13.6m | 12.4m | 12.6m – 13.4m |
| 2028 | 13.1m | 13.7m | 12.5m | 12.1m – 14.1m |
| 2030 | 13.2m | 13.9m | 12.6m | 11.7m – 14.7m |
| 2035 | 13.5m | 14.1m | 12.9m | 10.7m – 16.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.67 | 13.66 | -5.57 | 1.25 – 4.09 |
| 2028 | 4.08 | 15 | -10 | 1.51 – 6.66 |
| 2030 | 5.49 | 15 | -10 | 1.98 – 9 |
| 2035 | 9.02 | 15 | -10 | 3.24 – 14.81 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.07(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.39 | 6.32 | 2.47 | 4.03 – 4.76 |
| 2027 | 4.79 | 8.12 | 1.45 | 4.04 – 5.53 |
| 2029 | 4.98 | 9.29 | 0.67 | 3.92 – 6.04 |
| 2034 | 5.13 | 11.23 | 0 | 3.38 – 6.88 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.29 | 8.86 | 7.72 | 8.03 – 8.54 |
| 2028 | 7.68 | 8.67 | 6.69 | 7.11 – 8.25 |
| 2030 | 7.07 | 8.35 | 5.8 | 6.27 – 7.88 |
| 2035 | 5.56 | 7.36 | 3.75 | 4.39 – 6.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/OSS · API docs
