Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Pakistan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.6 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±5.8392 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Pakistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.09 | 4.58 | -4.41 | -0.85 – 1.02 |
| 2029 | 1.06 | 8.84 | -6.72 | -0.58 – 2.7 |
| 2031 | 2.03 | 12.08 | -8.01 | -0.18 – 4.25 |
| 2036 | 4.47 | 18.68 | -9.74 | 0.85 – 8.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.22 | 11.56 | 9.06 | 9.87 – 10.58 |
| 2028 | 10.69 | 13.01 | 8.69 | 9.85 – 11.54 |
| 2030 | 11.17 | 14.16 | 8.58 | 9.85 – 12.49 |
| 2035 | 12.35 | 16.58 | 8.69 | 9.77 – 14.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed407.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 415.5bn | 487.6bn | 353bn | 400.3bn – 430.7bn |
| 2028 | 438.5bn | 563.3bn | 330.3bn | 402.6bn – 474.4bn |
| 2030 | 461.5bn | 622.7bn | 321.8bn | 405.4bn – 517.6bn |
| 2035 | 519bn | 746.9bn | 321.4bn | 408.8bn – 629.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.6 | 9.61 | -1.6 | 2.54 – 4.66 |
| 2029 | 3.61 | 12 | -5.4 | 1.71 – 5.52 |
| 2031 | 3.62 | 12 | -8.02 | 1.09 – 6.15 |
| 2036 | 3.65 | 12 | -10 | -0.1 – 7.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.7k |
| 2028 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.2k | 1.5k – 1.8k |
| 2030 | 1.7k | 2.4k | 1.1k | 1.5k – 1.9k |
| 2035 | 1.8k | 2.8k | 984.58 | 1.4k – 2.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 70.53 | 80.98 | 58.46 | 67.79 – 73.27 |
| 2029 | 71.39 | 89.5 | 50.49 | 65.17 – 77.6 |
| 2031 | 72.24 | 95.62 | 45.27 | 62.87 – 81.62 |
| 2036 | 74.38 | 107.45 | 36.23 | 57.4 – 91.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.99 | 22.01 | 11.97 | 15.95 – 18.03 |
| 2028 | 16.55 | 25.24 | 7.87 | 14.43 – 18.68 |
| 2030 | 16.12 | 27.33 | 4.9 | 13.11 – 19.12 |
| 2035 | 15.02 | 30.89 | 0 | 10.19 – 19.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.86 | 33 | -5 | 4.57 – 15.14 |
| 2029 | 14.97 | 50 | -5 | 5.37 – 24.58 |
| 2031 | 20.09 | 50 | -5 | 7.01 – 33.17 |
| 2036 | 32.88 | 50 | -5 | 11.39 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.18 | 14.32 | 10.33 | 11.68 – 12.69 |
| 2028 | 11.33 | 15.03 | 8.12 | 10.26 – 12.4 |
| 2030 | 10.48 | 15.26 | 6.33 | 8.95 – 12 |
| 2035 | 8.34 | 15.1 | 2.48 | 6.04 – 10.64 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed255.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 242.7m | 254.1m | 232m | 235.1m – 250.2m |
| 2029 | 231.6m | 246.1m | 218.1m | 214.4m – 248.7m |
| 2031 | 220.4m | 239.2m | 203m | 195.4m – 245.5m |
| 2036 | 192.7m | 219.2m | 168m | 152.7m – 232.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.38 | 8.27 | -3.79 | 0.49 – 2.26 |
| 2028 | 1.74 | 13.68 | -7.21 | 0.17 – 3.32 |
| 2030 | 2.11 | 15 | -9.45 | 0.01 – 4.2 |
| 2035 | 3.02 | 15 | -10 | -0.19 – 6.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.4bn | 30.9bn | 8bn | 17.4bn – 21.5bn |
| 2028 | 24.2bn | 43.9bn | 4.4bn | 20bn – 28.3bn |
| 2030 | 28.9bn | 54.4bn | 3.3bn | 22.6bn – 35.1bn |
| 2035 | 40.6bn | 76.8bn | 4.5bn | 28.6bn – 52.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.54 | 5.76 | 1.32 | 3.15 – 3.94 |
| 2028 | 3.29 | 7.14 | 0 | 2.54 – 4.04 |
| 2030 | 3.17 | 8.13 | 0 | 2.15 – 4.18 |
| 2035 | 3.07 | 10.09 | 0 | 1.5 – 4.64 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6bn | 42bn | 17.1bn | 27.2bn – 31.9bn |
| 2028 | 36.9bn | 58.4bn | 15.4bn | 31.8bn – 41.9bn |
| 2030 | 44.2bn | 72bn | 16.4bn | 36.4bn – 52bn |
| 2035 | 62.5bn | 101.8bn | 23.2bn | 46.5bn – 78.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7 | 8.59 | 5.41 | 6.64 – 7.35 |
| 2029 | 7.2 | 9.95 | 4.44 | 6.43 – 7.96 |
| 2031 | 7.39 | 10.95 | 3.83 | 6.26 – 8.53 |
| 2036 | 7.89 | 12.92 | 2.85 | 5.85 – 9.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PAK · API docs
