Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Panama: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.39 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+22% skill vs naive; realized ±6.855 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Panama: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.16 | 4.43 | -6.76 | -2.32 – -0 |
| 2029 | -0.49 | 9.21 | -10.18 | -2.52 – 1.54 |
| 2031 | 0.18 | 12.7 | -12.33 | -2.45 – 2.82 |
| 2036 | 1.87 | 19.57 | -15.83 | -2.04 – 5.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45.14 | 52.94 | 38.37 | 43.3 – 46.97 |
| 2027 | 46.69 | 60.22 | 34.97 | 42.52 – 50.87 |
| 2029 | 48.25 | 65.71 | 33.12 | 41.9 – 54.6 |
| 2034 | 52.14 | 76.83 | 30.75 | 40.27 – 64.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 98.2bn | 113.2bn | 85.2bn | 94.9bn – 101.6bn |
| 2029 | 106.6bn | 132.6bn | 84.1bn | 98.4bn – 114.8bn |
| 2031 | 115bn | 148.6bn | 85.9bn | 101.8bn – 128.2bn |
| 2036 | 136bn | 183.5bn | 94.9bn | 107.8bn – 164.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.39 | 8.93 | -1.41 | 2.41 – 4.37 |
| 2029 | 2.13 | 11.73 | -6.18 | 0.43 – 3.84 |
| 2031 | 0.88 | 12 | -9.85 | -1.26 – 3.02 |
| 2036 | -2.26 | 12 | -10 | -5.54 – 1.02 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.1k | 24.6k | 18.1k | 20.3k – 21.8k |
| 2029 | 22.5k | 28.6k | 17.3k | 20.7k – 24.3k |
| 2031 | 23.9k | 31.7k | 17.2k | 21.1k – 26.8k |
| 2036 | 27.5k | 38.5k | 17.9k | 21.8k – 33.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.14 | 72.54 | 45.84 | 57.28 – 63.01 |
| 2029 | 65.03 | 86.51 | 40.26 | 58.61 – 71.46 |
| 2031 | 69.92 | 97.65 | 37.94 | 60.07 – 79.78 |
| 2036 | 82.15 | 121.36 | 36.91 | 62.97 – 101.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.24 | 49.11 | 29.37 | 37.1 – 41.38 |
| 2027 | 39.09 | 56.18 | 22 | 34.6 – 43.58 |
| 2029 | 38.94 | 61 | 16.88 | 32.45 – 45.43 |
| 2034 | 38.56 | 69.76 | 7.36 | 27.62 – 49.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.14 | 4.6 | -0.49 | 1.57 – 2.72 |
| 2029 | 4.37 | 8.62 | -0.19 | 3.22 – 5.52 |
| 2031 | 6.6 | 12.09 | 0.71 | 4.85 – 8.34 |
| 2036 | 12.16 | 19.93 | 3.84 | 8.49 – 15.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.4(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.67 | 42.83 | 21.99 | 29.56 – 33.77 |
| 2027 | 32.07 | 51.4 | 15.32 | 27.77 – 36.37 |
| 2029 | 32.48 | 57.43 | 10.85 | 26.31 – 38.64 |
| 2034 | 33.49 | 68.78 | 2.91 | 23.09 – 43.89 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.6m | 4.8m | 4.4m | 4.5m – 4.7m |
| 2029 | 4.7m | 4.9m | 4.5m | 4.3m – 5m |
| 2031 | 4.7m | 4.9m | 4.5m | 4.2m – 5.3m |
| 2036 | 4.9m | 5.1m | 4.6m | 3.8m – 5.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 15 | -10 | -0.67 – 6.2 |
| 2028 | 3.3 | 15 | -10 | -2.73 – 9.34 |
| 2030 | 3.84 | 15 | -10 | -4.06 – 11.73 |
| 2035 | 5.18 | 15 | -10 | -6.38 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3bn | 11.1bn | 1.5bn | 5.5bn – 7.1bn |
| 2028 | 6.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 4.8bn – 8bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 17.3bn | 0 | 4.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2035 | 6.9bn | 22.1bn | 0 | 3.4bn – 10.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.86 | 5.09 | 0 | 1.33 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | 1.99 | 7.59 | 0 | 1.04 – 2.94 |
| 2030 | 2.06 | 9.28 | 0 | 0.79 – 3.33 |
| 2035 | 2.11 | 12.33 | 0 | 0.21 – 4.01 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3bn | 11.1bn | 1.5bn | 5.5bn – 7.1bn |
| 2028 | 6.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 4.8bn – 8bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 17.3bn | 0 | 4.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2035 | 6.9bn | 22.1bn | 0 | 3.4bn – 10.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.51 | 13.85 | 7.17 | 9.83 – 11.19 |
| 2029 | 10.73 | 16.52 | 4.94 | 9.33 – 12.13 |
| 2031 | 10.95 | 18.42 | 3.47 | 8.93 – 12.97 |
| 2036 | 11.5 | 22.07 | 0.93 | 8.04 – 14.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PAN · API docs
