Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Peru: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 21/100); the economy is in slowdown; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.94 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.58, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.60) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±2.1431 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Peru: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.59 | 7.97 | -0.79 | 2.64 – 4.54 |
| 2028 | 4.58 | 12.17 | -3.02 | 2.81 – 6.34 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 15.36 | -4.24 | 3.11 – 8 |
| 2035 | 8.02 | 21.88 | -5.84 | 3.91 – 12.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.8 | 36.11 | 26.2 | 29.55 – 32.05 |
| 2028 | 32.46 | 41.66 | 24.49 | 29.59 – 35.33 |
| 2030 | 34.12 | 45.99 | 23.83 | 29.7 – 38.55 |
| 2035 | 38.27 | 55.06 | 23.72 | 29.75 – 46.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed334.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 353.6bn | 396.1bn | 316.7bn | 342.6bn – 364.6bn |
| 2028 | 401bn | 474.6bn | 337.1bn | 371.3bn – 430.6bn |
| 2030 | 448.3bn | 543.5bn | 365.9bn | 397.4bn – 499.2bn |
| 2035 | 566.8bn | 701.3bn | 450.2bn | 449.2bn – 684.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.94 | 12 | -10 | 0.76 – 9.13 |
| 2028 | 8.13 | 12 | -10 | 0.63 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.32 | 12 | -10 | 1.23 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -2.91 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.2k | 11.4k | 9.1k | 9.8k – 10.5k |
| 2028 | 11.4k | 13.6k | 9.4k | 10.5k – 12.2k |
| 2030 | 12.6k | 15.4k | 10.1k | 11.1k – 14k |
| 2035 | 15.6k | 19.6k | 12.1k | 12.3k – 18.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.19 | 36.23 | 25.37 | 29.92 – 32.47 |
| 2028 | 33.17 | 41.9 | 23.1 | 30.24 – 36.11 |
| 2030 | 35.15 | 46.43 | 22.15 | 30.61 – 39.7 |
| 2035 | 40.11 | 56.05 | 21.72 | 31.24 – 48.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.82 | 27.39 | 16.26 | 20.62 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 21.78 | 31.41 | 12.14 | 19.26 – 24.3 |
| 2030 | 21.73 | 34.17 | 9.29 | 18.09 – 25.37 |
| 2035 | 21.62 | 39.21 | 4.03 | 15.47 – 27.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 7.85 | -4.78 | 0.37 – 3.13 |
| 2028 | 1.09 | 11.65 | -5 | -1.31 – 3.48 |
| 2030 | 0.42 | 14.06 | -5 | -2.68 – 3.52 |
| 2035 | -1.25 | 18.04 | -5 | -5 – 3.23 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.08 | 23.24 | 17.34 | 19.31 – 20.85 |
| 2028 | 19.1 | 24.58 | 14.35 | 17.4 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 18.13 | 25.2 | 12 | 15.67 – 20.59 |
| 2035 | 15.68 | 25.69 | 7.02 | 11.75 – 19.62 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.5m | 36.1m | 33m | 33.4m – 35.5m |
| 2028 | 34.9m | 36.5m | 33.3m | 32.3m – 37.5m |
| 2030 | 35.3m | 36.9m | 33.7m | 31.3m – 39.3m |
| 2035 | 36.3m | 38m | 34.7m | 28.7m – 43.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.55 | 11.22 | -3.95 | 1.43 – 3.68 |
| 2028 | 4.28 | 15 | -6.98 | 2.2 – 6.36 |
| 2030 | 6.01 | 15 | -8.53 | 3.1 – 8.91 |
| 2035 | 10.32 | 15 | -10 | 5.25 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.9bn | 99.1bn | 78.7bn | 85.9bn – 91.9bn |
| 2028 | 97.3bn | 115bn | 79.7bn | 90bn – 104.7bn |
| 2030 | 105.7bn | 128.5bn | 83bn | 93.7bn – 117.8bn |
| 2035 | 126.8bn | 159bn | 94.6bn | 100.5bn – 153.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.92 | 16.28 | 5.56 | 9.92 – 11.91 |
| 2028 | 11.5 | 20.79 | 2.22 | 9.53 – 13.48 |
| 2030 | 11.79 | 23.78 | 0 | 9.01 – 14.57 |
| 2035 | 12.02 | 28.97 | 0 | 7.5 – 16.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.3bn | 105.3bn | 83.4bn | 91.2bn – 97.5bn |
| 2028 | 104.1bn | 123.1bn | 85.2bn | 96.2bn – 112bn |
| 2030 | 113.9bn | 138.4bn | 89.5bn | 101bn – 126.9bn |
| 2035 | 138.5bn | 173.1bn | 103.8bn | 109.7bn – 167.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.85 | 6.73 | 2.97 | 4.48 – 5.21 |
| 2028 | 4.31 | 7.57 | 1.06 | 3.61 – 5.02 |
| 2030 | 3.77 | 7.98 | 0 | 2.83 – 4.72 |
| 2035 | 2.43 | 8.38 | 0 | 1.13 – 3.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PER · API docs
