Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Philippines: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 28/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.72 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.44, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±1.3231 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Philippines: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.8 | 1.7 | -9.3 | -4.98 – -2.62 |
| 2028 | -4.8 | 4.73 | -14.32 | -6.97 – -2.62 |
| 2030 | -5.79 | 6.5 | -18.09 | -8.77 – -2.82 |
| 2035 | -8.29 | 9.1 | -25.67 | -13.16 – -3.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.17 | 30 | 22.85 | 25.2 – 27.14 |
| 2028 | 25.41 | 32.05 | 19.65 | 23.24 – 27.58 |
| 2030 | 24.65 | 33.22 | 17.22 | 21.45 – 27.85 |
| 2035 | 22.75 | 34.87 | 12.24 | 17.38 – 28.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed487.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 506.6bn | 540.1bn | 477.5bn | 490.9bn – 522.3bn |
| 2028 | 554.9bn | 613.1bn | 504.6bn | 513.9bn – 596bn |
| 2030 | 603.3bn | 678.4bn | 538.3bn | 534.8bn – 671.8bn |
| 2035 | 724.3bn | 830.4bn | 632.3bn | 574bn – 874.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.72 | 12 | -6.87 | 2.42 – 7.03 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 12 | -10 | 1.37 – 9.62 |
| 2030 | 6.27 | 12 | -10 | 0.79 – 11.76 |
| 2035 | 8.21 | 12 | -10 | -0.15 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.3k | 4.6k | 4.1k | 4.2k – 4.4k |
| 2028 | 4.7k | 5.2k | 4.2k | 4.3k – 5k |
| 2030 | 5k | 5.7k | 4.4k | 4.5k – 5.6k |
| 2035 | 5.9k | 6.9k | 5.1k | 4.7k – 7.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.06 | 70.61 | 52.19 | 59.75 – 64.37 |
| 2028 | 67.98 | 82.79 | 50.89 | 62.44 – 73.52 |
| 2030 | 73.9 | 93.02 | 51.83 | 65.05 – 82.75 |
| 2035 | 88.7 | 115.74 | 57.49 | 70.3 – 107.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.44 | 48.93 | 31.94 | 38.49 – 42.38 |
| 2028 | 40.82 | 55.54 | 26.1 | 36.61 – 45.03 |
| 2030 | 41.2 | 60.2 | 22.21 | 35 – 47.41 |
| 2035 | 42.17 | 69.03 | 15.3 | 31.31 – 53.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.26 | 4.88 | -2.62 | 0.44 – 2.09 |
| 2028 | -0.91 | 5.36 | -5 | -2.35 – 0.53 |
| 2030 | -3.09 | 5.01 | -5 | -5 – -1.05 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.45 | -5 | -5 – -1.66 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.49 | 27.13 | 18.47 | 21.46 – 23.51 |
| 2028 | 21.83 | 29.87 | 14.87 | 19.63 – 24.03 |
| 2030 | 21.17 | 31.55 | 12.18 | 18 – 24.35 |
| 2035 | 19.53 | 34.2 | 6.81 | 14.31 – 24.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed116.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 116.5m | 122m | 111.4m | 112.9m – 120.1m |
| 2028 | 117.6m | 123.1m | 112.4m | 108.9m – 126.3m |
| 2030 | 118.6m | 124.2m | 113.4m | 105.1m – 132.1m |
| 2035 | 121.2m | 126.9m | 115.9m | 96.1m – 146.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.84 | 14.72 | -4.33 | 2.41 – 5.26 |
| 2028 | 6.44 | 15 | -7.7 | 3.77 – 9.1 |
| 2030 | 9.04 | 15 | -9.21 | 5.27 – 12.8 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.3 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.1bn | 111.9bn | 76.4bn | 89.9bn – 98.4bn |
| 2028 | 98.2bn | 129bn | 67.4bn | 88.8bn – 107.6bn |
| 2030 | 102.3bn | 142bn | 62.5bn | 88bn – 116.5bn |
| 2035 | 112.4bn | 168.6bn | 56.2bn | 85.8bn – 139bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.59 | 11.54 | 3.64 | 6.87 – 8.32 |
| 2028 | 7.93 | 14.78 | 1.09 | 6.51 – 9.36 |
| 2030 | 8.1 | 16.94 | 0 | 6.1 – 10.1 |
| 2035 | 8.23 | 20.73 | 0 | 5 – 11.46 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed110.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 114.4bn | 133.1bn | 95.8bn | 109.8bn – 119.1bn |
| 2028 | 122.7bn | 155bn | 90.4bn | 111.9bn – 133.5bn |
| 2030 | 131bn | 172.6bn | 89.3bn | 114.1bn – 147.8bn |
| 2035 | 151.6bn | 210.6bn | 92.7bn | 118.3bn – 184.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08 | 3.17 | 0.99 | 1.88 – 2.28 |
| 2028 | 1.77 | 3.66 | 0 | 1.4 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | 1.46 | 3.9 | 0 | 0.97 – 1.95 |
| 2035 | 0.69 | 4.14 | 0 | 0 – 1.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PHL · API docs
