Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Philippines: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.49 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±3.8104 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Philippines: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.16 | 0.15 | -10.46 | -6.32 – -3.99 |
| 2029 | -6.67 | 2.52 | -15.86 | -8.86 – -4.47 |
| 2031 | -8.18 | 3.68 | -20.04 | -11.25 – -5.1 |
| 2036 | -11.96 | 4.81 | -28.73 | -17.3 – -6.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.17 | 30 | 22.85 | 25.2 – 27.14 |
| 2028 | 25.41 | 32.05 | 19.65 | 23.24 – 27.58 |
| 2030 | 24.65 | 33.22 | 17.22 | 21.45 – 27.85 |
| 2035 | 22.75 | 34.87 | 12.24 | 17.38 – 28.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed487.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 530.9bn | 563.8bn | 502.5bn | 514.5bn – 547.4bn |
| 2029 | 578.3bn | 635.2bn | 529bn | 535.5bn – 621.1bn |
| 2031 | 625.6bn | 699.1bn | 562bn | 554.6bn – 696.7bn |
| 2036 | 744bn | 847.9bn | 654bn | 589.7bn – 898.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.49 | 6.32 | 1.04 | 2.96 – 4.02 |
| 2029 | 2.11 | 7.01 | -2.13 | 1.19 – 3.03 |
| 2031 | 0.73 | 7.05 | -4.75 | -0.4 – 1.87 |
| 2036 | -2.72 | 6.23 | -10 | -4.64 – -0.79 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.6k | 4.9k | 4.3k | 4.4k – 4.7k |
| 2029 | 5k | 5.5k | 4.5k | 4.6k – 5.3k |
| 2031 | 5.4k | 6k | 4.8k | 4.7k – 6k |
| 2036 | 6.3k | 7.3k | 5.5k | 5k – 7.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 63.04 | 71.58 | 53.17 | 60.71 – 65.36 |
| 2029 | 68.71 | 83.52 | 51.63 | 63.14 – 74.29 |
| 2031 | 74.38 | 93.5 | 52.33 | 65.49 – 83.28 |
| 2036 | 88.57 | 115.6 | 57.38 | 70.2 – 106.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.44 | 48.93 | 31.94 | 38.49 – 42.38 |
| 2028 | 40.82 | 55.54 | 26.1 | 36.61 – 45.03 |
| 2030 | 41.2 | 60.2 | 22.21 | 35 – 47.41 |
| 2035 | 42.17 | 69.03 | 15.3 | 31.31 – 53.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.57 | 9.69 | 1.15 | 4.56 – 6.57 |
| 2029 | 9.26 | 16.4 | 1.61 | 7.24 – 11.29 |
| 2031 | 12.96 | 22.18 | 3.08 | 9.88 – 16.04 |
| 2036 | 22.21 | 35.24 | 8.24 | 15.76 – 28.65 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.49 | 27.13 | 18.47 | 21.46 – 23.51 |
| 2028 | 21.83 | 29.87 | 14.87 | 19.63 – 24.03 |
| 2030 | 21.17 | 31.55 | 12.18 | 18 – 24.35 |
| 2035 | 19.53 | 34.2 | 6.81 | 14.31 – 24.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed116.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 114.8m | 120.2m | 109.8m | 111.2m – 118.4m |
| 2029 | 113.2m | 118.5m | 108.2m | 104.8m – 121.5m |
| 2031 | 111.5m | 116.8m | 106.6m | 98.9m – 124.2m |
| 2036 | 107.4m | 112.5m | 102.7m | 85.2m – 129.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.84 | 14.72 | -4.33 | 2.41 – 5.26 |
| 2028 | 6.44 | 15 | -7.7 | 3.77 – 9.1 |
| 2030 | 9.04 | 15 | -9.21 | 5.27 – 12.8 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.3 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.1bn | 111.9bn | 76.4bn | 89.9bn – 98.4bn |
| 2028 | 98.2bn | 129bn | 67.4bn | 88.8bn – 107.6bn |
| 2030 | 102.3bn | 142bn | 62.5bn | 88bn – 116.5bn |
| 2035 | 112.4bn | 168.6bn | 56.2bn | 85.8bn – 139bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.61 | 11.56 | 3.66 | 6.89 – 8.34 |
| 2028 | 7.94 | 14.79 | 1.1 | 6.52 – 9.37 |
| 2030 | 8.11 | 16.94 | 0 | 6.11 – 10.11 |
| 2035 | 8.24 | 20.73 | 0 | 5.01 – 11.47 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed110.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 114.4bn | 133.1bn | 95.8bn | 109.8bn – 119.1bn |
| 2028 | 122.7bn | 155bn | 90.4bn | 111.9bn – 133.5bn |
| 2030 | 131bn | 172.6bn | 89.3bn | 114.1bn – 147.8bn |
| 2035 | 151.6bn | 210.6bn | 92.7bn | 118.3bn – 184.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.85 | 7.1 | 2.61 | 4.43 – 5.28 |
| 2029 | 5.16 | 9.05 | 1.28 | 4.32 – 6.01 |
| 2031 | 5.47 | 10.49 | 0.46 | 4.27 – 6.68 |
| 2036 | 6.25 | 13.34 | 0 | 4.16 – 8.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PHL · API docs
