Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
PIQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 19/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.73 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.62, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.58) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±3.0312 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
PIQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed8.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.5 | 13.55 | 5.46 | 8.53 – 10.48 |
| 2028 | 9.51 | 16.52 | 2.5 | 7.62 – 11.4 |
| 2030 | 9.52 | 18.57 | 0.47 | 6.91 – 12.13 |
| 2035 | 9.54 | 22.34 | -3.26 | 5.4 – 13.67 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.6bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.7bn | 50.9bn | 41.2bn | 44.3bn – 47.1bn |
| 2028 | 48.5bn | 57.5bn | 40.7bn | 44.9bn – 52.1bn |
| 2030 | 51.4bn | 63bn | 41.3bn | 45.5bn – 57.2bn |
| 2035 | 58.4bn | 74.9bn | 44.2bn | 46.3bn – 70.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.73 | 12 | -1.99 | 4.15 – 7.31 |
| 2028 | 7.1 | 12 | -6.28 | 4.19 – 10.02 |
| 2030 | 8.48 | 12 | -8.8 | 4.48 – 12 |
| 2035 | 11.91 | 12 | -10 | 5.3 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5k | 4.3k | 2.8k | 3.4k – 3.7k |
| 2028 | 3.6k | 5k | 2.5k | 3.3k – 4k |
| 2030 | 3.8k | 5.5k | 2.3k | 3.3k – 4.3k |
| 2035 | 4.2k | 6.6k | 2k | 3.2k – 5.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.81 | 61.8 | 46.75 | 52.86 – 56.76 |
| 2028 | 60.03 | 72.14 | 46.07 | 55.29 – 64.78 |
| 2030 | 65.26 | 80.89 | 47.22 | 57.63 – 72.88 |
| 2035 | 78.32 | 100.42 | 52.81 | 62.07 – 94.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 7.07 | -0.11 | 2.78 – 4.43 |
| 2028 | 5.43 | 11.43 | -1.01 | 3.83 – 7.02 |
| 2030 | 7.25 | 15 | -1.07 | 4.95 – 9.54 |
| 2035 | 11.8 | 22.77 | 0.04 | 7.48 – 16.11 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.9m | 14.4m | 11.5m | 12.5m – 13.3m |
| 2028 | 13.2m | 15.8m | 10.7m | 12.2m – 14.1m |
| 2030 | 13.4m | 16.9m | 10.3m | 11.9m – 15m |
| 2035 | 14.1m | 19m | 9.6m | 11.2m – 17m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PIQ · API docs
