Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
PIQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 32/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.45 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.36, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
PIQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed7.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.69 | 11.77 | 3.62 | 6.74 – 8.65 |
| 2029 | 7.68 | 14.73 | 0.62 | 5.87 – 9.48 |
| 2031 | 7.66 | 16.77 | -1.46 | 5.19 – 10.13 |
| 2036 | 7.62 | 20.51 | -5.27 | 3.77 – 11.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48bn | 53.1bn | 43.6bn | 46.5bn – 49.5bn |
| 2029 | 51.8bn | 60.7bn | 44.2bn | 48bn – 55.7bn |
| 2031 | 55.7bn | 67.1bn | 45.8bn | 49.3bn – 62bn |
| 2036 | 65.3bn | 81.4bn | 51.3bn | 51.7bn – 78.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.45 | 12 | -4.28 | 1.91 – 5 |
| 2029 | 3.49 | 12 | -9.91 | 0.75 – 6.24 |
| 2031 | 3.54 | 12 | -10 | -0.07 – 7.14 |
| 2036 | 3.64 | 12 | -10 | -1.65 – 8.92 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3k | 3.4k | 2.7k | 2.9k – 3.1k |
| 2029 | 3.2k | 3.8k | 2.6k | 2.9k – 3.4k |
| 2031 | 3.3k | 4.2k | 2.6k | 2.9k – 3.7k |
| 2036 | 3.7k | 4.9k | 2.6k | 2.9k – 4.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.36 | 60.44 | 45.18 | 51.41 – 55.3 |
| 2029 | 57.67 | 69.94 | 43.51 | 53.01 – 62.32 |
| 2031 | 61.98 | 77.82 | 43.7 | 54.58 – 69.37 |
| 2036 | 72.76 | 95.16 | 46.91 | 57.67 – 87.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.61 | 8.27 | 0.69 | 3.73 – 5.49 |
| 2029 | 6.29 | 12.62 | -0.49 | 4.58 – 8 |
| 2031 | 7.97 | 16.14 | -0.79 | 5.52 – 10.42 |
| 2036 | 12.17 | 23.73 | -0.22 | 7.66 – 16.68 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.6m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.5m | 16.3m | 14.8m | 15m – 16m |
| 2029 | 15.9m | 16.6m | 15.2m | 14.7m – 17m |
| 2031 | 16.2m | 16.9m | 15.5m | 14.3m – 18m |
| 2036 | 17m | 17.8m | 16.3m | 13.5m – 20.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PIQ · API docs
