Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Palau: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 48/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.68 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 1990-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+6% skill vs naive; realized ±8.3518 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Palau: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-17.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -13.45 | 2.06 | -28.96 | -16.83 – -10.07 |
| 2029 | -5.95 | 20.91 | -30 | -11.72 – -0.18 |
| 2031 | 1.55 | 30 | -30 | -5.65 – 8.75 |
| 2036 | 20.3 | 30 | -28.75 | 7.04 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.61 | 51.28 | 10.84 | 26.05 – 33.18 |
| 2027 | 23.45 | 60.98 | 0 | 16.96 – 29.93 |
| 2029 | 17.28 | 65.73 | 0 | 8.97 – 25.58 |
| 2034 | 1.86 | 70.38 | 0 | 0 – 11.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed345m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 398.1m | 450.5m | 352.7m | 385.5m – 410.7m |
| 2029 | 450.4m | 541.1m | 371.7m | 417.1m – 483.7m |
| 2031 | 502.6m | 619.8m | 401.1m | 445.6m – 559.7m |
| 2036 | 633.3m | 799m | 489.7m | 502m – 764.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.68 | 12 | -10 | -0.8 – 4.15 |
| 2029 | -1.4 | 12 | -10 | -5.71 – 2.92 |
| 2031 | -4.47 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.37 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.64 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.8k | 25.8k | 20.2k | 22.1k – 23.5k |
| 2029 | 25.8k | 31.1k | 21.3k | 23.9k – 27.8k |
| 2031 | 28.9k | 35.7k | 23k | 25.6k – 32.2k |
| 2036 | 36.5k | 46.1k | 28.3k | 29k – 44.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.24 | 79.43 | 40.25 | 57.46 – 65.02 |
| 2029 | 70.31 | 101.82 | 33.96 | 62.09 – 78.54 |
| 2031 | 79.39 | 120.06 | 32.45 | 66.78 – 92 |
| 2036 | 102.08 | 159.6 | 35.7 | 76.89 – 127.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.11(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 73.42 | 88.84 | 57.99 | 69.88 – 76.96 |
| 2027 | 74.03 | 100.75 | 47.32 | 66.39 – 81.67 |
| 2029 | 74.64 | 109.14 | 40.15 | 63.39 – 85.9 |
| 2034 | 76.18 | 124.95 | 27.4 | 56.52 – 95.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.92 | 23.34 | -5 | 5.59 – 12.26 |
| 2029 | 17.77 | 42.73 | -5 | 11.38 – 24.16 |
| 2031 | 26.62 | 50 | -5 | 17.34 – 35.89 |
| 2036 | 48.73 | 50 | -0.1 | 30.83 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.7 | 47.84 | 25.18 | 33.39 – 38 |
| 2027 | 35.37 | 56.4 | 17.15 | 30.67 – 40.07 |
| 2029 | 35.05 | 62.19 | 11.53 | 28.37 – 41.73 |
| 2034 | 34.24 | 70 | 0.97 | 23.27 – 45.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.9k | 17.7k | 16.2k | 16.4k – 17.5k |
| 2029 | 16.2k | 17k | 15.5k | 15k – 17.4k |
| 2031 | 15.5k | 16.3k | 14.7k | 13.7k – 17.2k |
| 2036 | 13.7k | 14.9k | 12.5k | 10.8k – 16.5k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PLW · API docs
