Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Palau: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 22/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.97 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 1990-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+5% skill vs naive; realized ±4.6733 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Palau: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-13.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.81 | 13.02 | -30 | -14.63 – -5 |
| 2028 | -6.24 | 30 | -30 | -14.6 – 2.13 |
| 2030 | -2.66 | 30 | -30 | -13.29 – 7.97 |
| 2035 | 6.28 | 30 | -30 | -9.46 – 22.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.61 | 51.28 | 10.84 | 26.05 – 33.18 |
| 2027 | 23.45 | 60.98 | 0 | 16.96 – 29.93 |
| 2029 | 17.28 | 65.73 | 0 | 8.97 – 25.58 |
| 2034 | 1.86 | 70.38 | 0 | 0 – 11.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed345m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 364.6m | 416.1m | 320m | 352.7m – 376.6m |
| 2028 | 411.4m | 500.6m | 334.2m | 381m – 441.9m |
| 2030 | 458.3m | 573.3m | 358.6m | 406.2m – 510.3m |
| 2035 | 575.3m | 738m | 434.3m | 456m – 694.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.97 | 12 | -4.83 | 6.18 – 11.77 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.83 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.1 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.69 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.6k | 23.5k | 18.1k | 19.9k – 21.3k |
| 2028 | 23.3k | 28.3k | 18.9k | 21.5k – 25k |
| 2030 | 25.9k | 32.4k | 20.2k | 23k – 28.8k |
| 2035 | 32.5k | 41.7k | 24.5k | 25.7k – 39.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.89 | 75.94 | 37.06 | 54.18 – 61.59 |
| 2028 | 68.06 | 99.32 | 31.99 | 59.99 – 76.14 |
| 2030 | 78.24 | 118.59 | 31.67 | 65.77 – 90.7 |
| 2035 | 103.67 | 160.75 | 37.82 | 78.3 – 129.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.11(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 73.42 | 88.84 | 57.99 | 69.88 – 76.96 |
| 2027 | 74.03 | 100.75 | 47.32 | 66.39 – 81.67 |
| 2029 | 74.64 | 109.14 | 40.15 | 63.39 – 85.9 |
| 2034 | 76.18 | 124.95 | 27.4 | 56.52 – 95.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.62 | 12.84 | -5 | -3.62 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | -4.33 | 18.98 | -5 | -5 – 1.04 |
| 2030 | -5 | 25.1 | -5 | -5 – 2.07 |
| 2035 | -5 | 37.57 | -5 | -5 – 5.24 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.7 | 47.84 | 25.18 | 33.39 – 38 |
| 2027 | 35.37 | 56.4 | 17.15 | 30.67 – 40.07 |
| 2029 | 35.05 | 62.19 | 11.53 | 28.37 – 41.73 |
| 2034 | 34.24 | 70 | 0.97 | 23.27 – 45.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.7k | 18.5k | 16.9k | 17.1k – 18.2k |
| 2028 | 17.6k | 18.5k | 16.9k | 16.3k – 18.9k |
| 2030 | 17.6k | 18.4k | 16.8k | 15.6k – 19.6k |
| 2035 | 17.5k | 18.3k | 16.7k | 13.9k – 21.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PLW · API docs
