Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Papua New Guinea: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2004-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2004-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2004-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±7.9061 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Papua New Guinea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2005, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed13.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.7 | 20.27 | 7.14 | 12.14 – 15.26 |
| 2029 | 13.71 | 25.08 | 2.34 | 10.73 – 16.69 |
| 2031 | 13.72 | 28.4 | -0.96 | 9.62 – 17.81 |
| 2036 | 13.74 | 30 | -7.03 | 7.3 – 20.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.16(2004)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 74.91 | 84.3 | 66.77 | 72.37 – 77.45 |
| 2007 | 80.4 | 96.66 | 66.3 | 74.21 – 86.58 |
| 2009 | 85.88 | 106.88 | 67.68 | 76.01 – 95.75 |
| 2014 | 99.6 | 129.3 | 73.86 | 78.94 – 120.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.4bn | 39.8bn | 31.6bn | 34.3bn – 36.5bn |
| 2029 | 38.1bn | 45.7bn | 31.5bn | 35.3bn – 40.9bn |
| 2031 | 40.8bn | 50.6bn | 32.3bn | 36.2bn – 45.4bn |
| 2036 | 47.5bn | 61.3bn | 35.5bn | 37.6bn – 57.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4 | 10.3 | -1.46 | 2.89 – 5.11 |
| 2029 | 4.41 | 12 | -5.04 | 2.38 – 6.44 |
| 2031 | 4.82 | 12 | -7.38 | 2.09 – 7.56 |
| 2036 | 5.85 | 12 | -10 | 1.59 – 10.1 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6k | 3.2k | 2.1k | 2.5k – 2.7k |
| 2029 | 2.5k | 3.5k | 1.7k | 2.3k – 2.8k |
| 2031 | 2.5k | 3.7k | 1.4k | 2.1k – 2.8k |
| 2036 | 2.3k | 4.1k | 820.41 | 1.7k – 2.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.29 | 59.35 | 41.99 | 49.23 – 53.35 |
| 2029 | 55.47 | 69.43 | 39.37 | 50.66 – 60.28 |
| 2031 | 59.65 | 77.67 | 38.86 | 52.1 – 67.19 |
| 2036 | 70.1 | 95.58 | 40.7 | 54.96 – 85.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.92(2004)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 60.19 | 67.67 | 52.71 | 58.08 – 62.29 |
| 2007 | 62.72 | 75.68 | 49.77 | 57.73 – 67.72 |
| 2009 | 65.26 | 81.98 | 48.53 | 57.48 – 73.04 |
| 2014 | 71.6 | 95.25 | 47.94 | 56.52 – 86.67 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.96 | 9.68 | -0.1 | 3.83 – 6.08 |
| 2029 | 5.77 | 13.95 | -3 | 3.68 – 7.86 |
| 2031 | 6.58 | 17.14 | -4.74 | 3.71 – 9.44 |
| 2036 | 8.6 | 23.54 | -5 | 3.91 – 13.29 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.13(2004)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 17.85 | 24.88 | 11.76 | 16.56 – 19.14 |
| 2007 | 17.39 | 29.56 | 6.85 | 14.82 – 19.97 |
| 2009 | 16.94 | 32.65 | 3.32 | 13.34 – 20.53 |
| 2014 | 15.79 | 38.01 | 0 | 10.09 – 21.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.2m | 14.5m | 12.1m | 12.8m – 13.6m |
| 2029 | 15.8m | 17.9m | 13.8m | 14.6m – 16.9m |
| 2031 | 18.3m | 21.1m | 15.7m | 16.2m – 20.4m |
| 2036 | 24.7m | 28.6m | 21m | 19.5m – 29.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.34 | 11.61 | -2.87 | 2.25 – 4.42 |
| 2028 | 4.38 | 15 | -6.37 | 2.38 – 6.38 |
| 2030 | 5.42 | 15 | -8.46 | 2.67 – 8.17 |
| 2035 | 8.03 | 15 | -10 | 3.47 – 12.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.7bn | 4.4bn | 3bn | 3.5bn – 3.9bn |
| 2027 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 2.9bn | 3.7bn – 4.4bn |
| 2029 | 4.4bn | 5.9bn | 3bn | 3.9bn – 5bn |
| 2034 | 5.4bn | 7.5bn | 3.3bn | 4.2bn – 6.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.68 | 6.21 | 3.15 | 4.37 – 4.99 |
| 2027 | 4.42 | 7.07 | 1.77 | 3.8 – 5.03 |
| 2029 | 4.29 | 7.71 | 0.87 | 3.42 – 5.16 |
| 2034 | 4.19 | 9.02 | 0 | 2.78 – 5.6 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9bn | 4.5bn | 3.2bn | 3.7bn – 4bn |
| 2027 | 4.3bn | 5.4bn | 3.2bn | 3.9bn – 4.7bn |
| 2029 | 4.7bn | 6.1bn | 3.3bn | 4.1bn – 5.3bn |
| 2034 | 5.8bn | 7.8bn | 3.8bn | 4.6bn – 7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.49 | 2.79 | 2.19 | 2.4 – 2.57 |
| 2028 | 2.32 | 2.84 | 1.81 | 2.13 – 2.51 |
| 2030 | 2.15 | 2.82 | 1.49 | 1.88 – 2.43 |
| 2035 | 1.74 | 2.68 | 0.8 | 1.32 – 2.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PNG · API docs
