Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Poland: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 35/100); the economy is in expansion; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.68 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±1.3838 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Poland: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.6 | 4.17 | -5.37 | -1.59 – 0.39 |
| 2028 | -0.4 | 7.87 | -8.67 | -2.14 – 1.34 |
| 2030 | -0.2 | 10.47 | -10.87 | -2.46 – 2.06 |
| 2035 | 0.3 | 15.39 | -14.79 | -2.94 – 3.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.99 | 58.18 | 42.9 | 48.02 – 51.96 |
| 2028 | 50.08 | 64.25 | 37.79 | 45.65 – 54.51 |
| 2030 | 50.16 | 68.46 | 34.3 | 43.53 – 56.79 |
| 2035 | 50.37 | 76.25 | 27.94 | 38.61 – 62.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 1.2T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.1T |
| 2028 | 1.3T | 1.5T | 1.1T | 1.2T – 1.4T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 1.7T | 1.3T | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2035 | 1.9T | 2.3T | 1.7T | 1.5T – 2.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.68 | 12 | -3.85 | 2.97 – 6.4 |
| 2028 | 6.99 | 12 | -7.79 | 3.81 – 10.17 |
| 2030 | 9.3 | 12 | -9.78 | 4.88 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.89 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.5k | 33.4k | 28k | 29.5k – 31.4k |
| 2028 | 35.7k | 40.7k | 31.3k | 33k – 38.3k |
| 2030 | 40.9k | 47.4k | 35.2k | 36.2k – 45.5k |
| 2035 | 53.9k | 63.1k | 45.9k | 42.7k – 65.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.34 | 68.56 | 48.7 | 56.97 – 61.71 |
| 2028 | 60.42 | 76.39 | 41.98 | 55.06 – 65.77 |
| 2030 | 61.49 | 82.12 | 37.7 | 53.4 – 69.59 |
| 2035 | 64.19 | 93.36 | 30.53 | 49.43 – 78.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.04 | 57.26 | 36.83 | 44.73 – 49.36 |
| 2028 | 46.97 | 64.66 | 29.28 | 42.01 – 51.93 |
| 2030 | 46.9 | 69.74 | 24.05 | 39.65 – 54.15 |
| 2035 | 46.71 | 79.02 | 14.41 | 34.3 – 59.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 15.96 | -5 | 1.91 – 7.13 |
| 2028 | 4.55 | 24.38 | -5 | -0.06 – 9.16 |
| 2030 | 4.58 | 30.18 | -5 | -1.46 – 10.62 |
| 2035 | 4.67 | 40.86 | -5 | -4.1 – 13.44 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.04 | 12.95 | -5 | 2 – 6.08 |
| 2029 | 4.56 | 19.99 | -5 | 0.92 – 8.2 |
| 2031 | 4.75 | 24.67 | -5 | -0.05 – 9.54 |
| 2036 | 4.84 | 33.02 | -5 | -2.18 – 11.86 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.99 | 18.87 | 15.37 | 16.45 – 17.53 |
| 2028 | 16.83 | 20.08 | 14.02 | 15.56 – 18.1 |
| 2030 | 16.67 | 20.86 | 13.04 | 14.74 – 18.6 |
| 2035 | 16.26 | 22.19 | 11.13 | 12.81 – 19.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.5m | 38.2m | 34.9m | 35.4m – 37.6m |
| 2028 | 36.3m | 38.1m | 34.8m | 33.7m – 39m |
| 2030 | 36.2m | 37.9m | 34.6m | 32.1m – 40.3m |
| 2035 | 35.9m | 37.6m | 34.3m | 28.4m – 43.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.46 | 14.37 | -2.96 | 3.15 – 5.77 |
| 2028 | 4.95 | 15 | -7.92 | 2.57 – 7.33 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 15 | -10 | 2.24 – 8.64 |
| 2035 | 6.66 | 15 | -10 | 1.68 – 11.64 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed194.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 205.2bn | 218.7bn | 191.7bn | 198.9bn – 211.6bn |
| 2028 | 231.5bn | 255bn | 208.1bn | 214.4bn – 248.7bn |
| 2030 | 257.9bn | 288.1bn | 227.6bn | 228.6bn – 287.2bn |
| 2035 | 323.7bn | 366.5bn | 280.9bn | 256.6bn – 390.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6 | 6.98 | 4.21 | 5.3 – 5.9 |
| 2028 | 5.27 | 7.67 | 2.88 | 4.65 – 5.89 |
| 2030 | 5.12 | 8.21 | 2.02 | 4.23 – 6 |
| 2035 | 4.99 | 9.37 | 0.61 | 3.52 – 6.46 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed271.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 294.8bn | 323.3bn | 266.3bn | 285.7bn – 304bn |
| 2028 | 352.2bn | 401.5bn | 302.8bn | 326.1bn – 378.2bn |
| 2030 | 409.5bn | 473.2bn | 345.8bn | 363bn – 456bn |
| 2035 | 552.9bn | 642.9bn | 462.8bn | 438.2bn – 667.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.91 | 3.35 | 2.47 | 2.8 – 3.02 |
| 2028 | 2.77 | 3.54 | 2.01 | 2.52 – 3.02 |
| 2030 | 2.64 | 3.63 | 1.66 | 2.28 – 3 |
| 2035 | 2.31 | 3.7 | 0.91 | 1.72 – 2.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/POL · API docs
