Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Poland: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.19 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±6.4316 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Poland: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.25 | 3.37 | -5.87 | -2.21 – -0.29 |
| 2029 | -1.55 | 6.46 | -9.55 | -3.25 – 0.16 |
| 2031 | -1.84 | 8.49 | -12.18 | -4.1 – 0.41 |
| 2036 | -2.59 | 12.03 | -17.2 | -5.99 – 0.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.99 | 58.18 | 42.9 | 48.02 – 51.96 |
| 2028 | 50.08 | 64.25 | 37.79 | 45.65 – 54.51 |
| 2030 | 50.16 | 68.46 | 34.3 | 43.53 – 56.79 |
| 2035 | 50.37 | 76.25 | 27.94 | 38.61 – 62.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2T | 1.3T | 1.1T | 1.2T – 1.2T |
| 2029 | 1.4T | 1.6T | 1.3T | 1.3T – 1.5T |
| 2031 | 1.6T | 1.8T | 1.4T | 1.4T – 1.8T |
| 2036 | 2.1T | 2.4T | 1.8T | 1.7T – 2.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.19 | 8.61 | -1.51 | 2.23 – 4.14 |
| 2029 | 2.91 | 12 | -5.22 | 1.21 – 4.62 |
| 2031 | 2.64 | 12 | -7.87 | 0.41 – 4.87 |
| 2036 | 1.95 | 12 | -10 | -1.22 – 5.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.5k | 36.1k | 31.2k | 32.5k – 34.5k |
| 2029 | 39k | 43.6k | 35.1k | 36.1k – 41.9k |
| 2031 | 44.5k | 50.4k | 39.4k | 39.5k – 49.6k |
| 2036 | 58.3k | 66.6k | 51.1k | 46.2k – 70.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.13 | 76.56 | 56.25 | 64.61 – 69.65 |
| 2029 | 69.99 | 86.32 | 51.15 | 64.12 – 75.86 |
| 2031 | 72.85 | 93.93 | 48.52 | 63.78 – 81.92 |
| 2036 | 80 | 109.81 | 45.59 | 62.61 – 97.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.04 | 57.26 | 36.83 | 44.73 – 49.36 |
| 2028 | 46.97 | 64.66 | 29.28 | 42.01 – 51.93 |
| 2030 | 46.9 | 69.74 | 24.05 | 39.65 – 54.15 |
| 2035 | 46.71 | 79.02 | 14.41 | 34.3 – 59.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.3 | 14.63 | -5 | 0.74 – 5.87 |
| 2029 | 2.58 | 22.21 | -5 | -1.89 – 7.06 |
| 2031 | 1.86 | 27.2 | -5 | -3.9 – 7.63 |
| 2036 | 0.06 | 35.9 | -5 | -5 – 8.17 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.72 | 12.62 | -5 | 1.69 – 5.75 |
| 2029 | 4.41 | 19.82 | -5 | 0.78 – 8.04 |
| 2031 | 4.66 | 24.56 | -5 | -0.12 – 9.44 |
| 2036 | 4.79 | 32.93 | -5 | -2.22 – 11.79 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.99 | 18.87 | 15.37 | 16.45 – 17.53 |
| 2028 | 16.83 | 20.08 | 14.02 | 15.56 – 18.1 |
| 2030 | 16.67 | 20.86 | 13.04 | 14.74 – 18.6 |
| 2035 | 16.26 | 22.19 | 11.13 | 12.81 – 19.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.2m | 37.9m | 34.6m | 35.1m – 37.3m |
| 2029 | 36m | 37.7m | 34.4m | 33.3m – 38.6m |
| 2031 | 35.7m | 37.4m | 34.1m | 31.6m – 39.7m |
| 2036 | 35m | 36.7m | 33.5m | 27.8m – 42.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.46 | 14.37 | -2.96 | 3.15 – 5.77 |
| 2028 | 4.95 | 15 | -7.92 | 2.57 – 7.33 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 15 | -10 | 2.24 – 8.64 |
| 2035 | 6.66 | 15 | -10 | 1.68 – 11.64 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed194.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 205.2bn | 218.7bn | 191.7bn | 198.9bn – 211.6bn |
| 2028 | 231.5bn | 255bn | 208.1bn | 214.4bn – 248.7bn |
| 2030 | 257.9bn | 288.1bn | 227.6bn | 228.6bn – 287.2bn |
| 2035 | 323.7bn | 366.5bn | 280.9bn | 256.6bn – 390.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6 | 6.98 | 4.21 | 5.3 – 5.9 |
| 2028 | 5.27 | 7.67 | 2.88 | 4.65 – 5.89 |
| 2030 | 5.12 | 8.21 | 2.02 | 4.23 – 6 |
| 2035 | 4.99 | 9.37 | 0.61 | 3.52 – 6.46 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed271.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 294.8bn | 323.3bn | 266.3bn | 285.7bn – 304bn |
| 2028 | 352.2bn | 401.5bn | 302.8bn | 326.1bn – 378.2bn |
| 2030 | 409.5bn | 473.2bn | 345.8bn | 363bn – 456bn |
| 2035 | 552.9bn | 642.9bn | 462.8bn | 438.2bn – 667.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.43 | 4 | 2.87 | 3.29 – 3.58 |
| 2029 | 3.5 | 4.49 | 2.52 | 3.19 – 3.82 |
| 2031 | 3.57 | 4.85 | 2.3 | 3.09 – 4.06 |
| 2036 | 3.75 | 5.55 | 1.95 | 2.87 – 4.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/POL · API docs
