Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Pre-demographic dividend: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in expansion; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.27 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5172 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Pre-demographic dividend: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed29.98(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.9 | 38.43 | 24.37 | 29.33 – 32.47 |
| 2027 | 32.73 | 45.78 | 21.42 | 29.3 – 36.17 |
| 2029 | 34.56 | 51.41 | 19.97 | 29.39 – 39.74 |
| 2034 | 39.14 | 62.96 | 18.5 | 29.48 – 48.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6T | 2T | 1.3T | 1.6T – 1.7T |
| 2028 | 1.6T | 2.2T | 993.8bn | 1.4T – 1.7T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 2.3T | 761.4bn | 1.3T – 1.7T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 2.5T | 289.5bn | 970.9bn – 1.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.27 | 10.26 | -0.93 | 3.2 – 5.33 |
| 2028 | 5.83 | 12 | -3.17 | 3.82 – 7.84 |
| 2030 | 7.38 | 12 | -4.23 | 4.56 – 10.21 |
| 2035 | 11.28 | 12 | -5.14 | 6.32 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4k | 1.8k | 1.1k | 1.3k – 1.5k |
| 2028 | 1.3k | 1.9k | 716.97 | 1.1k – 1.4k |
| 2030 | 1.1k | 2k | 419.51 | 945.24 – 1.3k |
| 2035 | 793.19 | 2k | 0 | 527.46 – 1.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.54 | 37.78 | 27.31 | 31.22 – 33.87 |
| 2028 | 35.55 | 44.62 | 26.48 | 32.46 – 38.65 |
| 2030 | 38.56 | 50.26 | 26.85 | 33.68 – 43.43 |
| 2035 | 46.07 | 62.63 | 29.52 | 36.17 – 55.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.18 | 8.44 | -2.45 | 1.97 – 4.4 |
| 2028 | 1.9 | 11.01 | -5 | -0.21 – 4.01 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 12.38 | -5 | -2.06 – 3.31 |
| 2035 | -2.57 | 14.05 | -5 | -5 – 1.53 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2028 | 1.2bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.2bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1bn – 1.5bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.19 | 8.12 | -4.01 | 0.31 – 2.08 |
| 2028 | 2.15 | 14.15 | -6.86 | 0.54 – 3.75 |
| 2030 | 3.1 | 15 | -8.53 | 0.91 – 5.28 |
| 2035 | 5.48 | 15 | -10 | 1.86 – 9.1 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.33 | 9.73 | 4.93 | 6.85 – 7.82 |
| 2028 | 8.08 | 12.24 | 3.93 | 7.06 – 9.11 |
| 2030 | 8.45 | 13.82 | 3.08 | 6.95 – 9.95 |
| 2035 | 8.74 | 16.33 | 1.15 | 6.18 – 11.31 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.24 | 4.79 | 3.68 | 4.08 – 4.39 |
| 2028 | 3.62 | 4.58 | 2.66 | 3.3 – 3.94 |
| 2030 | 3.01 | 4.25 | 1.77 | 2.58 – 3.44 |
| 2035 | 1.47 | 3.22 | 0 | 0.97 – 1.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PRE · API docs
