Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Puerto Rico (US): macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.51 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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IMF DataMapper API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6144 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Puerto Rico (US): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed46.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.01 | 50.32 | 40.42 | 43.54 – 46.49 |
| 2028 | 41.27 | 50.46 | 33.31 | 37.98 – 44.57 |
| 2030 | 37.53 | 49.39 | 27.26 | 32.84 – 42.23 |
| 2035 | 28.18 | 44.95 | 13.65 | 21.28 – 35.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed129.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 133.3bn | 140.3bn | 127.3bn | 129.2bn – 137.5bn |
| 2028 | 143.2bn | 154bn | 133.9bn | 132.6bn – 153.8bn |
| 2030 | 153.1bn | 167bn | 141bn | 135.7bn – 170.5bn |
| 2035 | 177.8bn | 197.5bn | 160.8bn | 141bn – 214.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.51 | 6.64 | -4.79 | -0.52 – 1.55 |
| 2028 | 0.88 | 11.49 | -8.31 | -0.94 – 2.7 |
| 2030 | 1.25 | 12 | -10 | -1.14 – 3.63 |
| 2035 | 2.16 | 12 | -10 | -1.41 – 5.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.9k | 44.1k | 40k | 40.6k – 43.2k |
| 2028 | 45.3k | 48.7k | 42.4k | 42k – 48.7k |
| 2030 | 48.7k | 53.1k | 44.9k | 43.2k – 54.2k |
| 2035 | 57.1k | 63.4k | 51.7k | 45.3k – 69k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.13 | 31.78 | 0 | 10.05 – 16.21 |
| 2028 | 3.39 | 35.68 | 0 | 0 – 8.52 |
| 2030 | 0 | 41.7 | 0 | 0 – 6.5 |
| 2035 | 0 | 58.97 | 0 | 0 – 9.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.33 | 49.11 | 37.56 | 41.75 – 44.91 |
| 2028 | 42.84 | 52.84 | 32.84 | 39.26 – 46.43 |
| 2030 | 42.35 | 55.27 | 29.44 | 36.99 – 47.72 |
| 2035 | 41.13 | 59.39 | 22.87 | 31.76 – 50.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.33 | 6.26 | -3.96 | 0.21 – 2.44 |
| 2028 | 0.49 | 9.03 | -5 | -1.46 – 2.43 |
| 2030 | -0.35 | 10.67 | -5 | -2.88 – 2.17 |
| 2035 | -2.45 | 13.14 | -5 | -5 – 1.4 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.9 | 18.21 | 10.16 | 13.06 – 14.73 |
| 2028 | 13.94 | 21.42 | 7.47 | 12.21 – 15.68 |
| 2030 | 13.99 | 23.64 | 5.63 | 11.49 – 16.49 |
| 2035 | 14.11 | 27.75 | 2.28 | 9.9 – 18.31 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 3.1m – 3.3m |
| 2028 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.4m |
| 2030 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.8m – 3.5m |
| 2035 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 2.9m | 2.5m – 3.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.76 | 8.01 | -4.68 | -0.16 – 1.68 |
| 2028 | 1.68 | 14.24 | -7.74 | 0.03 – 3.33 |
| 2030 | 2.59 | 15 | -9.57 | 0.36 – 4.83 |
| 2035 | 4.89 | 15 | -10 | 1.24 – 8.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.38 | 6.92 | 3.83 | 5.05 – 5.7 |
| 2028 | 4.14 | 6.82 | 1.46 | 3.53 – 4.75 |
| 2030 | 2.91 | 6.37 | 0 | 2.15 – 3.67 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.89 | 0 | 0 – 0.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PRI · API docs
