Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Puerto Rico (US): macro conditions look balanced (pressure 47/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.13 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±4.1706 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Puerto Rico (US): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed46.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.01 | 50.32 | 40.42 | 43.54 – 46.49 |
| 2028 | 41.27 | 50.46 | 33.31 | 37.98 – 44.57 |
| 2030 | 37.53 | 49.39 | 27.26 | 32.84 – 42.23 |
| 2035 | 28.18 | 44.95 | 13.65 | 21.28 – 35.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed129.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 132.1bn | 139.1bn | 126bn | 128bn – 136.2bn |
| 2029 | 139.7bn | 151.9bn | 129.2bn | 129.4bn – 150.1bn |
| 2031 | 147.4bn | 163bn | 133.8bn | 130.6bn – 164.1bn |
| 2036 | 166.5bn | 188.6bn | 147.2bn | 131.9bn – 201bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.13 | 3.65 | -5.26 | -1.94 – -0.31 |
| 2029 | -3.33 | 4.94 | -10 | -4.87 – -1.79 |
| 2031 | -5.53 | 5.15 | -10 | -7.75 – -3.31 |
| 2036 | -10 | 5.1 | -10 | -10 – -5.88 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.7k | 43.9k | 39.8k | 40.4k – 43k |
| 2029 | 44.4k | 48.3k | 41.1k | 41.2k – 47.7k |
| 2031 | 47.2k | 52.1k | 42.9k | 41.8k – 52.5k |
| 2036 | 54k | 61k | 47.9k | 42.8k – 65.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.8 | 32.4 | 0 | 10.72 – 16.88 |
| 2029 | 3.8 | 36.02 | 0 | 0 – 8.94 |
| 2031 | 0 | 41.6 | 0 | 0 – 6.48 |
| 2036 | 0 | 58.82 | 0 | 0 – 9.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.33 | 49.11 | 37.56 | 41.75 – 44.91 |
| 2028 | 42.84 | 52.84 | 32.84 | 39.26 – 46.43 |
| 2030 | 42.35 | 55.27 | 29.44 | 36.99 – 47.72 |
| 2035 | 41.13 | 59.39 | 22.87 | 31.76 – 50.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.49 | 6.77 | -2.11 | 1.5 – 3.48 |
| 2029 | 3.47 | 10.89 | -4.49 | 1.65 – 5.28 |
| 2031 | 4.45 | 14.03 | -5 | 1.97 – 6.93 |
| 2036 | 6.9 | 20.45 | -5 | 2.79 – 11 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.9 | 18.21 | 10.16 | 13.06 – 14.73 |
| 2028 | 13.94 | 21.42 | 7.47 | 12.21 – 15.68 |
| 2030 | 13.99 | 23.64 | 5.63 | 11.49 – 16.49 |
| 2035 | 14.11 | 27.75 | 2.28 | 9.9 – 18.31 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 3.1m – 3.3m |
| 2029 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.4m |
| 2031 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.8m – 3.5m |
| 2036 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 2.9m | 2.5m – 3.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.76 | 8.01 | -4.68 | -0.16 – 1.68 |
| 2028 | 1.68 | 14.24 | -7.74 | 0.03 – 3.33 |
| 2030 | 2.59 | 15 | -9.57 | 0.36 – 4.83 |
| 2035 | 4.89 | 15 | -10 | 1.24 – 8.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.73 | 7.27 | 4.18 | 5.4 – 6.05 |
| 2029 | 5.18 | 7.85 | 2.51 | 4.52 – 5.83 |
| 2031 | 4.63 | 8.07 | 1.18 | 3.73 – 5.52 |
| 2036 | 3.25 | 8.13 | 0 | 1.99 – 4.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PRI · API docs
