Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
North Korea: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); 6 observed macro indicators held; total population is projected at 26.5m for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.38) · a projection from baseline forecasts
No real GDP growth series held for "PRK".
Would require: A real GDP growth series for this country.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: strong track record (+84% skill vs naive; realized ±277548.6049 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
North Korea: forward projections across 2 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed26.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.5m | 27.8m | 25.4m | 25.7m – 27.4m |
| 2028 | 26.6m | 27.9m | 25.5m | 24.7m – 28.6m |
| 2030 | 26.7m | 28m | 25.5m | 23.7m – 29.7m |
| 2035 | 26.9m | 28.2m | 25.7m | 21.3m – 32.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.52 | 3.74 | 3.3 | 3.41 – 3.63 |
| 2028 | 3.47 | 3.86 | 3.09 | 3.22 – 3.73 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 3.92 | 2.93 | 3.04 – 3.81 |
| 2035 | 3.3 | 4.01 | 2.6 | 2.62 – 3.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PRK · API docs
