Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Portugal: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in expansion; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.52 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±5.6959 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Portugal: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.72 | 3.57 | -2.12 | 0.13 – 1.32 |
| 2029 | 1.17 | 6.09 | -3.76 | 0.11 – 2.23 |
| 2031 | 1.61 | 7.97 | -4.75 | 0.19 – 3.04 |
| 2036 | 2.73 | 11.72 | -6.27 | 0.45 – 5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.23 | 53.43 | 36.27 | 42.21 – 46.25 |
| 2028 | 45.38 | 61.31 | 31.58 | 40.93 – 49.84 |
| 2030 | 46.53 | 67.09 | 28.72 | 39.88 – 53.19 |
| 2035 | 49.41 | 78.48 | 24.22 | 37.35 – 61.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed346.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 401.5bn | 436.5bn | 371.2bn | 389.1bn – 414bn |
| 2029 | 454.2bn | 514.8bn | 401.7bn | 420.6bn – 487.8bn |
| 2031 | 506.9bn | 585.1bn | 439.1bn | 449.3bn – 564.4bn |
| 2036 | 638.5bn | 749.2bn | 542.7bn | 506.1bn – 771bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.52 | 5.21 | -1.67 | 0.89 – 2.16 |
| 2029 | 0.58 | 6.96 | -4.95 | -0.53 – 1.69 |
| 2031 | -0.37 | 7.87 | -7.5 | -1.82 – 1.09 |
| 2036 | -2.73 | 8.91 | -10 | -5.11 – -0.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 37.2k | 40.5k | 34.4k | 36k – 38.4k |
| 2029 | 41.7k | 47.4k | 36.9k | 38.6k – 44.8k |
| 2031 | 46.3k | 53.5k | 40k | 41k – 51.5k |
| 2036 | 57.6k | 67.9k | 48.7k | 45.7k – 69.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.91 | 5.01 | 0.67 | 2.35 – 3.48 |
| 2029 | 2.42 | 6.05 | 0 | 1.41 – 3.43 |
| 2031 | 2.18 | 6.86 | 0 | 0.85 – 3.5 |
| 2036 | 1.98 | 8.61 | 0 | 0.03 – 3.93 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 80.63 | 96.74 | 62.05 | 76.87 – 84.4 |
| 2029 | 70.7 | 98.59 | 38.52 | 63.02 – 78.39 |
| 2031 | 60.77 | 96.78 | 19.23 | 50.37 – 71.17 |
| 2036 | 35.95 | 86.87 | 0 | 22.36 – 49.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.09 | 51.8 | 34.37 | 41.06 – 45.11 |
| 2028 | 43.78 | 58.88 | 28.69 | 39.37 – 48.19 |
| 2030 | 44.48 | 63.96 | 24.99 | 37.93 – 51.02 |
| 2035 | 46.21 | 73.77 | 18.65 | 34.6 – 57.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.48 | 10.45 | -4 | 1.87 – 5.08 |
| 2029 | 4.55 | 16.63 | -5 | 1.65 – 7.44 |
| 2031 | 5.62 | 21.21 | -5 | 1.71 – 9.52 |
| 2036 | 8.29 | 30.35 | -5 | 2.07 – 14.51 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.88 | 10.43 | -5 | 1.15 – 4.6 |
| 2029 | 2.66 | 15.75 | -5 | -0.37 – 5.69 |
| 2031 | 2.58 | 19.48 | -5 | -1.37 – 6.54 |
| 2036 | 2.54 | 26.44 | -5 | -3.16 – 8.25 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.83 | 21.92 | 19.88 | 20.18 – 21.47 |
| 2028 | 21.22 | 22.86 | 19.8 | 19.65 – 22.79 |
| 2030 | 21.61 | 23.72 | 19.77 | 19.15 – 24.06 |
| 2035 | 22.58 | 25.57 | 19.98 | 17.89 – 27.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.2m | 10.4m – 11m |
| 2029 | 10.6m | 11.1m | 10.2m | 9.8m – 11.4m |
| 2031 | 10.6m | 11.1m | 10.1m | 9.4m – 11.8m |
| 2036 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 9.9m | 8.2m – 12.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.53 | 13.88 | -9.48 | -1.15 – 2.21 |
| 2028 | -0.15 | 15 | -10 | -3.09 – 2.78 |
| 2030 | -0.84 | 15 | -10 | -4.65 – 2.97 |
| 2035 | -2.55 | 15 | -10 | -8.23 – 3.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.1bn | 20.9bn | 11.3bn | 15.1bn – 17.1bn |
| 2028 | 18.7bn | 27bn | 10.4bn | 16.5bn – 20.9bn |
| 2030 | 21.3bn | 32bn | 10.6bn | 17.9bn – 24.6bn |
| 2035 | 27.8bn | 43bn | 12.6bn | 21bn – 34.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.14(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.05 | 4.01 | 2.09 | 2.86 – 3.25 |
| 2027 | 2.95 | 4.61 | 1.28 | 2.55 – 3.35 |
| 2029 | 2.9 | 5.05 | 0.75 | 2.34 – 3.46 |
| 2034 | 2.86 | 5.89 | 0 | 1.93 – 3.78 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.9bn | 92.6bn | 59.1bn | 72.1bn – 79.6bn |
| 2028 | 93.8bn | 122.9bn | 64.8bn | 84.9bn – 102.8bn |
| 2030 | 111.8bn | 149.3bn | 74.3bn | 97.1bn – 126.5bn |
| 2035 | 156.7bn | 209.7bn | 103.7bn | 123.5bn – 189.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.79 | 6.41 | 5.16 | 5.6 – 5.97 |
| 2029 | 5.56 | 6.64 | 4.47 | 5.13 – 5.99 |
| 2031 | 5.33 | 6.73 | 3.93 | 4.69 – 5.97 |
| 2036 | 4.76 | 6.74 | 2.78 | 3.7 – 5.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PRT · API docs
