Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Portugal: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.88 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2199 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Portugal: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.37 | 4.33 | -1.6 | 0.74 – 1.99 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 6.83 | -3.43 | 0.57 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | 2.03 | 8.65 | -4.59 | 0.51 – 3.54 |
| 2035 | 2.85 | 12.22 | -6.51 | 0.49 – 5.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.23 | 53.43 | 36.27 | 42.21 – 46.25 |
| 2028 | 45.38 | 61.31 | 31.58 | 40.93 – 49.84 |
| 2030 | 46.53 | 67.09 | 28.72 | 39.88 – 53.19 |
| 2035 | 49.41 | 78.48 | 24.22 | 37.35 – 61.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed346.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 365.7bn | 401.7bn | 334.6bn | 354.4bn – 377.1bn |
| 2028 | 412.9bn | 475.1bn | 358.9bn | 382.3bn – 443.4bn |
| 2030 | 460bn | 540.4bn | 390.4bn | 407.8bn – 512.2bn |
| 2035 | 577.9bn | 691.5bn | 479.4bn | 458bn – 697.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 12 | -9.26 | -0.29 – 4.05 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 1.93 | 12 | -10 | -3.01 – 6.87 |
| 2035 | 1.99 | 12 | -10 | -5.1 – 9.08 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.6k | 36.8k | 30.9k | 32.6k – 34.7k |
| 2028 | 37.5k | 43k | 32.7k | 34.7k – 40.2k |
| 2030 | 41.3k | 48.4k | 35.2k | 36.6k – 46k |
| 2035 | 50.9k | 61k | 42.2k | 40.4k – 61.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.85(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.29 | 5.41 | 1.02 | 2.72 – 3.87 |
| 2029 | 2.63 | 6.31 | 0 | 1.6 – 3.66 |
| 2031 | 2.31 | 7.05 | 0 | 0.95 – 3.66 |
| 2036 | 2.05 | 8.76 | 0 | 0.07 – 4.03 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.17 | 101.28 | 66.59 | 81.33 – 89.01 |
| 2028 | 76.12 | 104.01 | 43.94 | 68.18 – 84.06 |
| 2030 | 67.07 | 103.07 | 25.52 | 56.16 – 77.97 |
| 2035 | 44.43 | 95.35 | 0 | 29.49 – 59.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.09 | 51.8 | 34.37 | 41.06 – 45.11 |
| 2028 | 43.78 | 58.88 | 28.69 | 39.37 – 48.19 |
| 2030 | 44.48 | 63.96 | 24.99 | 37.93 – 51.02 |
| 2035 | 46.21 | 73.77 | 18.65 | 34.6 – 57.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.51 | 9.53 | -5 | 0.92 – 4.11 |
| 2028 | 2.4 | 14.55 | -5 | -0.41 – 5.21 |
| 2030 | 2.29 | 17.97 | -5 | -1.37 – 5.95 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 24.18 | -5 | -3.23 – 7.25 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2 | 10.78 | -4.93 | 1.46 – 4.93 |
| 2029 | 2.81 | 15.94 | -5 | -0.24 – 5.85 |
| 2031 | 2.67 | 19.62 | -5 | -1.3 – 6.64 |
| 2036 | 2.6 | 26.57 | -5 | -3.13 – 8.32 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.83 | 21.92 | 19.88 | 20.18 – 21.47 |
| 2028 | 21.22 | 22.86 | 19.8 | 19.65 – 22.79 |
| 2030 | 21.61 | 23.72 | 19.77 | 19.15 – 24.06 |
| 2035 | 22.58 | 25.57 | 19.98 | 17.89 – 27.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8m | 11.3m | 10.3m | 10.4m – 11.1m |
| 2028 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10.1m – 11.7m |
| 2030 | 11m | 11.5m | 10.5m | 9.8m – 12.3m |
| 2035 | 11.3m | 11.9m | 10.8m | 9m – 13.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.53 | 13.88 | -9.48 | -1.15 – 2.21 |
| 2028 | -0.15 | 15 | -10 | -3.09 – 2.78 |
| 2030 | -0.84 | 15 | -10 | -4.65 – 2.97 |
| 2035 | -2.55 | 15 | -10 | -8.23 – 3.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.1bn | 20.9bn | 11.3bn | 15.1bn – 17.1bn |
| 2028 | 18.7bn | 27bn | 10.4bn | 16.5bn – 20.9bn |
| 2030 | 21.3bn | 32bn | 10.6bn | 17.9bn – 24.6bn |
| 2035 | 27.8bn | 43bn | 12.6bn | 21bn – 34.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 5.53 | 2.93 | 3.96 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.64 | 5.89 | 1.39 | 3.12 – 4.16 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.26 | 0.44 | 2.64 – 4.07 |
| 2035 | 3.12 | 7.24 | 0 | 1.99 – 4.25 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.9bn | 92.6bn | 59.1bn | 72.1bn – 79.6bn |
| 2028 | 93.8bn | 122.9bn | 64.8bn | 84.9bn – 102.8bn |
| 2030 | 111.8bn | 149.3bn | 74.3bn | 97.1bn – 126.5bn |
| 2035 | 156.7bn | 209.7bn | 103.7bn | 123.5bn – 189.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.06 | 6.68 | 5.44 | 5.87 – 6.25 |
| 2028 | 5.85 | 6.92 | 4.78 | 5.4 – 6.29 |
| 2030 | 5.63 | 7.02 | 4.25 | 4.97 – 6.3 |
| 2035 | 5.11 | 7.06 | 3.15 | 3.99 – 6.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PRT · API docs
